Read our UFC 317 predictions for the Saturday, June 28, event live from The T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The preliminary card airs on ESPN+ starting at 6:30 p.m. Eastern Time, with the main card starting on ESPN+ PPV at 10:00 ET.
Our MMA experts went through this weekend's 11-fight lineup for their UFC best bets and identified their four favorite picks for the card.
You can find their analysis and picks, as well as Sean Zerillo's moneyline and prop projections, on those matches below.
UFC 317 Moneyline Projections
UFC 317 Prop Projections
UFC 317 Best Bets
John Lanfranca: Hyder Amil vs. Jose Delgado
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:15 p.m. ET
In one of the more intriguing matchups of the entire night at UFC 317 ,undefeated fighter Hyder Amil will do battle with the talented 27 year-old prospect Jose Delgado and look to snap hisa six fight winning streak.
With both men averaging north of 6.5 significant strikes landed per minute, the perception here is that we will undoubtedly see fireworks on Saturday, but the value lies in this fight getting extended.
Hyder Amil is relentless with his pressure, quickly becoming someone featherweights will hesitate to sign on to step into the octagon with. His 80% takedown defense affords him the ability to walk forward without concern.
While Amil can break fighters physically and mentally, although I would not consider him a knockout artist. Amil has gone to decision in three of his last six fights, including a decision win on Dana White Contender’s Series against a fighter below UFC level.
Delgado is the favorite here and brings the finishing upside; every single one of his career wins has come inside the distance. With that said, finishing Amil will be a much more difficult task then getting wins over Conor Mathews or regional-level fighters with 4-6 and 3-3 records, both of which were included during his current winning streak.
This is going to be a very fun fight to watch and the winner takes another massive step to contender status. It will be very difficult to either to find a 1st round finish here given the step up in competition, as neither man has ever suffered a loss by knockout or submission. The best value here is to simply take this fight to last 7 minutes and 30 seconds or longer.
The Pick: Over 1.5 Rounds -154 (FanDuel)
Billy Ward: Payton Talbott vs. Felipe Lima
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 10:15 p.m. ET
The price adjustment between fights for Payton Talbott is one of the largest I've ever seen, as Talbott was a better than -1000 favorite at UFC 311. I suppose that makes sense at some level, since Raoni Barcelos pulled off the massive upset courtesy of eight takedowns over the talented striker.
Now Talbott is an underdog in a much better stylistic matchup against Felipe Lima, a fellow striker who should be willing to engage on the feet with the Reno, Nevada product.
Lima, like Talbott, is a creative and dynamic striker. Where they differ is that Lima is all action — he rushes forward with leaping attacks, exchanges wildly in the pocket, and generally looks to finish fights as quickly as possible.
Talbott is a bit more measured in his approach, with excellent counter striking abilities and a solid feel for range. With a reach over 70 inches he's one of the longer bantamweights, and he uses that length well to keep opponents on the end of his strikes.
That's the ideal approach against an aggressive and occasionally reckless fighter like Lima, who will provide plenty of opportunities to be countered. While Lima is capable of executing a grappling-based game plan, I'm not expecting to. The takedown he landed on Muhammad Naimov that led to his submission win was almost an afterthought, as Lima hit a slide by on Naimov after the latter forced a clinch.
While I'm worried about Talbott's grappling defense, at +152 odds on FanDuel it's worth the risk. I'd take his moneyline down to +120.
The Pick: Payton Talbott +152 (FanDuel)
Sean Zerillo: Beneil Dariush vs. Renato Moicano
Senior Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:15 p.m. ET
The Pick: Beneil Dariush (+100 at FanDuel ) | Fight Goes to Decision (+114 at FanDuel)
