Check out the Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Kara-France prediction for UFC 317 on Saturday, June 28, with my betting preview and breakdown.
Pantoja vs. Kara-France Odds
| Pantoja Odds | -238 |
| Kara-France Odds | +198 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (-175/ +135) |
| Location | T-Mobile Arena Las Vegas, Nevada |
| Bout Time | 11:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ PPV |
| UFC 317 odds as of Friday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 317 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Alexandre Pantoja is arguably the most dominant champion in the UFC right now, and his three consecutive title defenses is tied for the most among any current title holder. He can move into first place by himself with a win over former opponent Kai Kara-France this weekend. The two previously met on season 24 of The Ultimate Fighter in 2016, with Pantoja winning a clear, but competitive, two round decision.
Here's my Pantoja vs. Kara-France pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Pantoja | Kara-France | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 29-5 | 25-11 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:39 | 12:19 |
| Height | 5'5" | 5'4" |
| Weight (pounds) | 125 lbs. | 125 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 67" | 69" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 4/16/1990 | 3/26/1993 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.41 | 4.56 |
| SS Accuracy | 50% | 39% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.92 | 3.22 |
| SS Defense | 50% | 65% |
| Take Down Avg | 2.74 | 0.61 |
| TD Acc | 47% | 33% |
| TD Def | 68% | 88% |
| Submission Avg | 0.9 | 0.0 |
While it doesn't have a ton of relevance to either man's chances on Saturday, the first meeting between these two did give some hints as to the fighters they would become.
Pantoja looked to grapple early against the more powerful striker, and had moments of success, but was ultimately unable to keep Kara-France on the ground. However, the threat of takedowns every time Kara-France stepped in allowed Pantoja to get the better of the striking exchanges, a story we've seen play out throughout his career.
That's also a game plan the champion might need to rely on again this time. In the eight years since they met on The Ultimate Fighter, Kara-France has continued to improve his takedown defense and now boasts an excellent 88% mark.
More impressive than his takedown defense is how little time he spends on the ground when he is taken down. While there have been occasional exceptions, Kara-France is typically able to return to his feet without incident.
His go-to method is to expose his back to his opponent, either seated or from the turtle position, before creating a slight angle and hitting a wrestling-style switch. The downside to that plan is that he provides plenty of opportunities for his opponent to take his back, especially when or if they become aware that he's looking to hit the switch.
That was best exemplified in his split decision loss to Amir Albazi. In Round 3, Albazi briefly took Kara-France down early, but the Kiwi hit his switch, got top position, and returned to his feet. Then Albazi landed another takedown and countered Kara-France's ensuing switch with a body lock. Rather than try something different, Kara-France stubbornly rolled to his stomach anyway,and spent the remainder of the round defending rear naked chokes and strikes from the back.
That's a dangerous plan against Pantoja, who is one of the better back-takers in the sport.
In his last title defense, he relentlessly hunted the back of Kai Asakura, eventually jumping to the back standing before finishing a choke on the ground. When he's unable to secure both hooks, he also is adept at doing damage from the back, and he repeatedly punished Steve Erceg when the challenger tried to return standing with one hook in.
Kara-France does have a relatively clear edge on the feet here. While Pantoja is defensively sound, he's not a huge power striker, with his last knockout victory coming in 2019. Kara-France throws more volume and hits considerably harder, and his only knockout loss in the UFC came via a body kick.
That gives him a puncher's chance against Pantoja on the feet, but the Brazilian has never been finished in his professional career. That's despite wins over high-level boxers like Erceg and Brandon Moreno. Pantoja has three wins against the former champion, while Moreno has defeated Kara-France twice.
Pantoja vs. Kara-France Pick, Prediction
Kai Kara-France comes into this fight 1-2 over his last three, with the knockout loss to Moreno and a controversial split decision to Amir Albazi. It's hard to say he's the most deserving title challenger at this point, but he was the next man up in a division Pantoja has mostly cleaned out.
While I expect this to be a somewhat competitive fight thanks to the challenger's solid grappling defense, Pantoja has a fairly clear path to a victory here, and his typical game plan lines up nicely with the holes in Kara-France's game.
While I'd be comfortable playing Pantoja straight up now that his line is as low as -230, there's a better way. We can parlay the champ's moneyline with the over 1.5 rounds and cut the juice to -125 at DraftKings, or push our luck a bit more and get plus money by betting on the fight to go even longer.
I'm more than happy to get -125, so that's my official pick. Feel free to play with the numbers if you want an even better price and can live with some minor additional risk.
Billy's Pick: Alexandre Pantoja & Over 1.5 Rounds SGP -125 (DraftKings)
