Check out the Jack Hermansson vs. Gregory Rodrigues prediction for UFC 317 on Saturday, June 28, with my betting preview and breakdown.
Hermansson vs. Rodrigues Odds
| Hermansson Odds | +185 |
| Rodrigues Odds | -225 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-145/ +1114) |
| Location | T-Mobile Arena Las Vegas, Nevada |
| Bout Time | 9:35 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ PPV |
| UFC 317 odds as of Friday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 317 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
The UFC 317 prelims culminates in a middleweight showdown between two veterans of the game. with 27 combined UFC fight. Jack Hermansson once again steps into the underdog role against the dangerous Gregory Rodrigues, a spot he was just in prior to his 2024 upset victory over another heavy-hitter in Joe Pyfer.
The value lies with the underdog again on Saturday night in a contest that should be lined much closer.
Here's my Hermansson vs. Rodrigues pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Hermansson | Rodrigues | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 24-8 | 16-6 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 11:33 | 8:52 |
| Height | 6'1" | 6'3" |
| Weight (pounds) | 185 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 77" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 6/10/1988 | 02/17/1992 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.09 | 5.63 |
| SS Accuracy | 44% | 53% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.69 | 4.95 |
| SS Defense | 56% | 51% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.53 | 2.31 |
| TD Acc | 30% | 38% |
| TD Def | 80% | 88% |
| Submission Avg | 0.4 | 0.3 |
Hermansson is a technician; and he also happens to be one of the best in sport at following his coaches’ gameplan to a tee. His 56% striking defense over his sixteen UFC bouts may not jump off of the page, but it is a solid number that he seems laser-focused on improving.
During his victory over the power-punching Pyfer, Hermansson absorbed just 92 of the 250 significant strikes his opponent attempted over the course of five rounds, as Pyfer landed at just a 36% rate.
Hermansson was the much more accurate striker in that fight as well, landing at a 51% rate. We have seen major strides in his stand-up game, often using his jab to keep opponents at the distance he wants. This being a three round fight instead of a five round contest does lead me to believe Rodgrigues will press forward and be considerably more aggressive in the early going than was Pyfer in that aforementioned win.
Hermansson possesses the footwork and technique to still be the more accurate of the two, but avoiding the fight-ending power of Rodgrigues will be a top priority.
For as huge as Rodrigues is for the middleweight division, Hermansson still possesses the reach advantage. His straighter shots and movement could present similar problems Rodrigues faced in his most recent loss versus Jared Connonier.
Rodrigues landed just 42% of his significant strikes in that fight, while absorbing strikes at 49%. Furthermore, the head-hunting Rodrigues struggled in his quest for the knockout, connecting on just 34% of shots aimed at the head of Cannonier.
This is a high volatility fight for a number of reasons.
First, neither man has proven to be durable against fighters with elite power. Secondly, it’s very difficult to predict who will have grappling success if either chooses to pursue that path. I believe oddsmakers favor Rodrigues to the extent they do because they see him as having a cleaner path to takedowns and control time.
With that said, both men have takedown defense above 80% for their careers, and each has an offensive takedown rate of under 40% despite both being considered good wrestlers and high-level grapplers for the middleweight division.
Lastly, while Hermansson's cardio advantage and that could definitely factory into the outcome here, Rodgrigues actually increased his output round-by-round against Cannonier his last time out, so a pure kickboxing match doesn't necessarily mean Hermannson realizes the stamina edge he possesses.
Jack Hermansson vs. Gregory Rodrigues Pick, Prediction
When Rodgrigues does attempt to implement his offensive wrestling, it may just end up leading to him expending valuable energy if he is unsuccessful.
Hermansson has not been taken down since 2018. If the fight plays out at distance on the feet, I love the chances of Hermansson to pull the upset.
It was not long ago Hermansson out-struck Sean Strickland through three rounds in a fight that went the five round distance. Let’s face it, the Joker is simply underrated and undervalued at this point — I will be siding with him on the moneyline at UFC 317.
John's Pick:Jack Hermansson +185 (Caesars)
