UFC 317 Odds, Predictions: Expert Picks, Previews for All 11 Fights

Jhonata Diniz vs. Alvin Hines

Projection: Diniz (78.3%)

Alvin "Goozie" Hines will make his UFC debut on Saturday, filling in on short notice for Justin Tafa, after going 7-0 regionally, including five wins in LFA. Hines is easy to root for, as a full-time union operating engineer in Minnesota who started fighting professionally in 2022.

He'll look to wrestle Jhonata Diniz, a taller and longer kickboxer (2" taller, 5" reach advantage) who has been out-grappled by both Marcin Tybura (controlled for over 70% of their fight) and Austin Lane (controlled for over 60%).

Outside of landing takedowns and consolidating position, however, it's challenging to find a path to victory for Hines in this matchup. I project value on Diniz as a favorite (projected -363, listed -325) and would use him as a parlay piece to -350.

However, Hines has demonstrated excellent durability in his brief MMA career, and I expect him to survive longer into the fight, even if Diniz can keep the fight standing.

The UFC Heavyweight division is significantly weaker than it used to be, and fights within the division have gone to decision north of 50% of the time over the past few years.

I projected this fight to reach a decision one-third of the time (+207 implied), and the betting market is giving us -110 on the Over 1.5 Rounds and +280 on the distance prop; bet those to -125 and +225 respectively.

Alternatively, or in addition, I project value on Diniz to win by decision (projected +299, listed +430) at +325 or better, and I would bet him live after Round 1, assuming Hines lands a takedown and the number on Diniz improves.

Bets

• Over 1.5 Rounds (-110, 0.25u) at FanDuel (bet to -125)
• Jhonata Diniz Live after R1

Niko Price vs. Jacobe Smith

Projection: Smith (93%)

Jacobe Smith is set to close as the biggest moneyline favorite in UFC betting history on Saturday, at -2500 (96.1% implied) or higher as of Friday night, surpassing Isaac Dulgarian (-2400) vs. Brandon Marotte and Bo Nickal (-2200) vs. Val Woodburn.

Smith – a former D-1 wrestler at Oklahoma State, can take down Price (52% takedown defense) at will if he needs to but should be able to secure a highlight-reel KO (and is listed at -270 to do so) against an aging opponent with severe durability concerns (five KO losses in the UFC).

Price is the bigger man (2" taller, 4" reach advantage), but Smith is the far more explosive and quicker athlete, and he's -800 to win the fight inside the distance.

While I do think that pricing is steep, and I show a slight edge for Smith to win by decision (projected +617, listed +750), I'd rather bet on that prop small or pass on this fight altogether.

Bets

• TBD

Terrance McKinney vs. Viacheslav Borshchev

Projection: McKinney (53%)

Terrance McKinney is a significant danger to any opponent in Round 1, with 15 of his 16 career wins inside of five minutes.

And he seemingly has the skill set to finish Viachelav "Slava Claus" Borshchev, who has shown poor takedown defense (43%) and declining durability on his UFC run.

Slava is a master of sport in boxing and a far superior technical striker (+2.6 differential per minute), but he has been forced to spend 41% of his cage time grappling with opponents, while getting outgrappled in 87% of those positions.

McKinney has big-time power, but he's had a smoother time outwrestling opponents (57% of his cage time grappling, 84% control rate), and McKinney could potentially take Slava's back and choke him out, like he did to Fares Ziam.

Still, McKinney has never been able to sustain his style-whether striking or grappling-for more than five minutes against high-level competition, and the numbers on Slava to win in Round 2 (+750) or Round 3 (+1600) are particularly appealing.

I show pre-fight value on Borshchev's moneyline (projected +113, listed +150) and his KO/TKO prop (projected +196, listed +210), but would prefer to take his late props and wait for a live moneyline after five minutes.

Bets

• Viacheslav Borshchev wins in Round 2 (+750, 0.15u) at FanDuel (bet to +500)
• Viacheslav Borshchev wins in Round 3 (+1600, 0.1u) at Caesars (bet to +1000)
• Viacheslav Borshchev Live after Round 1

Viviane Araujo vs. Tracy Cortez

Projection: Cortez (60.6%)

I typically side with big underdogs in fights heavily juiced to go to decision, which implies that the fight was somewhat competitive to begin with. The Flyweight bout between Tracy Cortez and Viviane Araujo is over 84% implied to go the distance in the betting market.

I align with the GTD market (projected 83%, -476 implied) – these fighters have gone the distance in 17 of their 18 combined UFC bouts – and I also show value on Araujo (projected +154) at +170 or higher; however, I'm slightly concerned by the seven-year age gap between these fighters.

Araujo is the bigger Flyweight (3" reach advantage) and maintains a higher pace on the feet (lands 5.6 to 5 strikes per minute at distance), although Cortez is more efficient (-0.3 to -0.8 differential).

Both shoot a similar rate of takedowns, but Araujo has better takedown defense (80% vs. 61%) of the pair; if she shoots early, I think she can put Cortez on her back.

Araujo is competitive against every opponent early, but tends to fade in Round 3 due to poor cardio. She was able to upset Karine Silva in her last fight, as a +265 underdog, because Silva has similarly questionable cardio.

While Cortez does have the better gas tank, she's not reliable to push a pace against Araujo, particularly coming off of a five-round main event where she had to adjust her style to fit the 25-minute format.

As a result, I'd expect Araujo to remain competitive and sustain her gas tank deeper into the fight with Cortez than she would against other opponents, particularly if she's able to land and consolidate a takedown in the opening round.

In the prop market, I also project an edge on Araujo by decision (projected +221, listed +350). Still, if she reaches the grappling positions that she needs in order to win a decision; she'll likely threaten at least one good submission attempt as well.

Bets

• Viviane Araujo (+210, 0.25u) at Caesars (bet to +170)

Hyder Amil vs. Jose Delgado

Projection: Delgado (63.7%)

Hyder Amil is a popular underdog selection this week, with public forecasts predicting he will win the fight more than 60% of the time, compared to the underdog odds.

Still, moving from the APEX cage to the full-sized 30-foot octagon poses a challenge for the aggressive, undefeated fighter, going against a taller and longer opponent in Jose Delgado (2" taller, 4" reach advantage).

Bets

• Jose Delgado (-142, 0.25u) at DraftKings (bet to -160)
• Fight Goes to Decision (+172, 0.25u) at FanDuel (bet to +135)
• Jose Delgado Live after Round 1

Jack Hermansson vs. Gregory Rodrigues

Projection: Rodrigues (72.3%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of this matchup, check out the full fight preview from my colleague, John Lanfranca.

While I do project a moneyline edge on Gregory Rodrigues (projected -261, listed -230) against Jack Hermansson, I would rather bet Rodrigues to win in Round 1 (+350) or inside the distance (projected +134, listed +140) rather than laying juice to back him.

Hermansson is the more experienced fighter, against better competition, and has a cardio advantage over Rodrigues, who is just a few months removed from a brutal main event loss against Jared Cannonier.

Rodrigues should be the much more dangerous fighter early on, and Hermansson will look to weather the early storm and work his way back into the contest. Rodrigues is just 3-4 in fights that have gone past the 7.5-minute mark, compared to a 14-4 record for Hermansson.

By the numbers, Hermansson is the more efficient striker (+1.0 to +0.7 differential per minute), but he's reliant on low kicks. In contrast, Rodrigues's head punches should be more eye-catching for the cage-side judges.

You could use Rodrigues as a small parlay piece to -250; I expect him to win the first two rounds without getting finished in the third more often than not; still, I'd prefer to bet his violence props, or a same-game parlay with the Under 1.5 Rounds; given his record in extended fights.

Unfortunately, however, Rodrigues (-235) and Under 1.5 (+200) only pays out +245 at best in an SGP, compared to fair odds of +327 for those same lines parlayed normally. Despite the correlation adjustment, that seems steep; play the Under 1.5 (+200) instead if you're going that route.

However, the odds on the props for this matchup ultimately feel like potential traps, and I'll reassess on fight day. I have an inkling that Rodrigues may come out overly conservative, following his stamina issues against Cannonier.

Bets

• TBD

Payton Talbott vs. Felipe Lima

Projection: Lima (57.1%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of this matchup, check out the full fight preview from my colleague, Billy Ward.

Peyton Talbott enters Saturday as an underdog, after losing as a -1250 favorite in his last fight against Raoni Barcelos, where a much older opponent thoroughly outwrestled him.

I'm incredibly high on Felipe Lima as a prospect, too. "Jungle Boy" trains at Allstars in Sweden alongside top international talent and possesses a well-rounded skill set befitting a future champion.

Still, Talbott is the much larger man (4" taller, 2" reach advantage) and the more dynamic and voluminous striker, fighting at an incredible pace (landed 9.9 strikes per minute at distance) with tremendous efficiency (+4.9 to +1.4 strike differential per minute).

While Lima has won each of his first two UFC bouts, and I bet him in both, I'm uncertain that he will proactively grapple Talbott and pursue the path of least resistance on the mat against a high-level striker.

If Lima obliges a striking fight, Talbott could outpace him over three rounds. However, if Lima initiates the grappling, Lima may be able to take the back and finish the fight against a relatively limited grappler.

I show value on Talbott's moneyline (projected +150, listed +133) and would consider betting that down to +145, but I may prefer his decision prop (projected +316, listed +470) given Lima's durability.

Conversely, I project an edge on Lima to win by submission (projected +448, listed +550), and in the Alt Double Chance market, you can bet Talbott Decision or Lima Submission at +200, vs. a projected line of +137.

Bets

• Peyton Talbott wins by Decision (+450, 0.1u) at FanDuel (bet to +350)
• Felipe Lima wins by Submission (+600, 0.05u) at FanDuel (bet to +500)
• Alt. Double Chance: Talbott Decision or Lima Submission (+200, 0.1u) at DraftKings (bet to +145)

Beneil Dariush vs. Renato Moicano

Projection: Dariush (57.3%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of this matchup, check out the full fight preview from my colleague, John Lanfranca.

These fighters were originally scheduled to square off at UFC 311, but Moicano was moved to the main event against Islam Makhachev after Arman Tsarukyan withdrew due to a back injury.

Both fighters are 36 years old, and outland opponents by exactly one significant strike per minute at distance. Crucially, however, Dariush is the more proactive wrestler (attempts 3.7 to 2.1 attempts per five minutes at distance) and the better control grappler (82% vs. 66% career control rate). Moicano needs back control to dominate or submit opponents, and it seems unlikely that get to those desired positions in this matchup, unless Darisuh is completely done athletically.

Moicano has been the more active fighter, competing four times (with three wins) since Darisuh last fought in December 2023.

While both men have durability concerns, I don't view either one as a particularly potent finishing threat on the feet; their grappling should cancel out, producing a potentially boring match on the ground.

I planned to bet Dariush at underdogs odds (+145) in the first booking, and while the line has moved in for the rematch I do project him as a favorite; Moicano is an extremely popular selection; with around two-thirds of the public sample backing him to win despite coin-flip odds, which have only moved toward the Dariush side.

I projected Dariush as a -134 favorite, and would bet his moneyline to -125.

Additionally, I expect this fight to go to decision around 57% of the time, and would play the GTD prop from plus money to -120. And I project correlated value on Darisush to win by decision (projected +186, listed +260)

Bets

• Beneil Dariush (+100, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -125)
• Fight Goes to Decision (+114, 0.25u) at FanDuel (bet to -120)

Brandon Royval vs. Josh Van

Projection: Van (57%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of this matchup, check out the full fight preview from my colleague, Billy Ward.

Van is taking this fight on short notice in place of Manel Kape, after competing at UFC 316 just a few weeks ago. This fight is a significant step up in competition against a former title challenger, on short notice, and Van is cutting weight for the second time in three weeks.

Typically, Van is a fighter that I look to live bet after Round 1, since he often starts slow and looks to build against his opponents. However, given the difficult nature of this spot for Saturday, I'm inclined to live bet Royval after Round 1, particularly if he has not grappled to that point.

Both men are high-paced, efficient strikers, although Van has the slight statistical edge (+2.5 to +2.2 differential per minute) while fighting at a higher pace (8.9 to 7.6 landed), albeit against a lower level of competition. Royval is the far better submission grappler, but he doesn't proactively wrestle (0.7 takedown attempts per five minutes at distance vs. 0.6 for Van) and has poor takedown defense (45%) of his own.

Royval is the bigger man too (4" taller, 3" reach advantage), but Van is nine years his junior, and is still improving from one fight to the next; he pitched a shutout in his win at UFC 316 over Bruno Silva, a dangerous and underrated Flyweight.

Van opened as an underdog but has moved close to -130 as of writing; I wouldn't bet him past -125 pre-fight. Either way, I would target Royval live after Round 1; I don't expect Van to be able to sustain his pace in this fight as well as he would be able to on a whole training camp, and Royval has a tricky submission game to prepare for, too.

While I project value on the fight going to decision (projected -214, listed -188), I'm not overly enthusiastic about laying juice on that wager; this should be a high-paced fight, and both fighters have shown defensive vulnerabilities that can create finishes for their opponents.

However, I view Royval as the likelier finisher of the pair, alongside value on his submission prop (projected +794, listed +900). I also show value on Van to win by decision (projected +125, listed +175), which seems like a better pre-fight alternative to laying juice on his moneyline.

In the Alt. double chance market, I'd make Van Decision or Royval Submission -125; you can bet that prop at -105 at DraftKings.

Take both props pre-fight, and target Royval live after Round 1; hopefully, you can get plus money on both sides of the moneyline, rather than laying pre-fight juice on the GTD prop if the fight goes all 15 minutes.

Bets

• Joshua Van wins by Decision (+165, 0.25u) at FanDuel
• Alt. Double Chance: Van wins by Decision or Royval wins by Submission (-105, 0.2u) at DraftKings (bet to -125)
• Brandon Royval Live after Round 1

Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Kara-France

Projection: Pantoja (62.7%)

For additional information on Saturday's co-main event and Flyweight title bout, including a full statistical breakdown of this matchup, check out the full fight preview from my colleague, Billy Ward.

Pantoja is a popular selection (averaging over 80% across public samples) to win a fourth consecutive title defense. With three, he's already second all-time in the 125-pound division behind Demetrious Johnson (11).

Kara-France ("KKF") has strong takedown defense (88%; denied 44 of 50 attempts), good scrambling, and has shown the ability to fight off rear-naked chokes after getting his back taken; the right skill set to defend Pantoja's primary gameplan (controls 73% of grappling positions vs. 39% for KKF).

If he can keep the fight standing, KKF is the more efficient kickboxer (+1.2 to +0.3 strike differential per minute at distance) – with significantly better defense (+15%) and more dynamic offensive tools.

While Pantoja has proven himself to be exceptionally durable during his MMA career, owning a win over KKF from The Ultimate Fighter in 2021, KKF is the younger man (by three years) and closer to his prime relative to the divisional average (31).

I projected Kara-France as a near +170 underdog, and would bet his moneyline down to +180 for Saturday. Moreover, I projected his KO/TKO prop at +436, and would poke that down to +450.

Bets

• Kai Kara-France (+215, 0.25u) at DraftKings (bet to +180)
• Kai Kara-France wins by KO/TKO (+600, 0.1u) at BallyBet (bet to +450)

Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Oliveira

Projection: Topuria (82.1%)

For additional information on Saturday's main event and Welterweight title bout, including a full statistical breakdown of this matchup, check out my full fight preview.

In short, I projected Ilia Topuria as an 82.1% favorite (-460 implied odds) in this matchup, and I don't show value concerning either side of the moneyline.

Moreover, I projected the fight to end inside-the-distance 86% of the time (-639 implied odds) and don't show value concerning the distance prop or totals from a straight betting perspective.

While I lean toward betting Topuria to win by KO/TKO or inside the distance, I projected those lines at -139 and -240, respectively, compared to listed odds of -160 and -275.

However, I would be relatively shocked if Oliveira survived a sustained bearing only to get finished in the late rounds; Topuria wins in Round 1 (+200) or Round 2 (+380) are appealing; as are his early KO/TKO alternatives (+300 Round 1, +490 Round 2).

His inside the distance prop is steep, but you can take earlier iterations of that outcome at significantly better prices – and I do think he has enough of an ego to desire to submit a decorated jiu-jitsu practitioner as a statement to his well-rounded skill set.

I prefer to ladder Topuria's moneyline in SGP's (Same Game Parlays) with Under 0.5 (+475), Under 1.5 (+130), Under 2.5 (-130), and potentially Under 3.5 (-190) rounds too, rather than targeting the KO/TKO props.

Bets

• SGP: Ilia Topuria & Under 0.5 Rounds (+450, 0.1u) at DraftKings (bet to +425)
• SGP: Ilia Topuria & Under 1.5 Rounds (+130, 0.1u) at DraftKings (bet to +120)
• SGP: Ilia Topuria & Under 2.5 Rounds (-128, 0.2u) at Caesars (bet to -150)

Sean Zerillo's UFC 317 Picks & Predictions

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Moneyline Bets

• Viviane Araujo (+210, 0.25u) at Caesars (bet to +170)
• Jose Delgado (-142, 0.25u) at Fanatics (bet to -160)
• Beneil Dariush (+100, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -125)
• Kai Kara-France (+215, 0.25u) at DraftKings (bet to +180

Prop Bets and Totals

• Diniz/Hines, Over 1.5 Rounds (-110, 0.25u) at FanDuel (bet to -125)
• Viacheslav Borshchev wins in Round 2 (+750, 0.15u) at FanDuel (bet to +500)
• Viacheslav Borshchev wins in Round 3 (+1600, 0.1u) at Caesars (bet to +1000)
• Amil/Delgado, Fight Goes to Decision (+172, 0.25u) at FanDuel (bet to +135)
• Peyton Talbott wins by Decision (+450, 0.1u) at FanDuel (bet to +350)
• Felipe Lima wins by Submission (+600, 0.05u) at FanDuel (bet to +500)
• Alt. Double Chance: Talbott Decision or Lima Submission (+200, 0.1u) at DraftKings (bet to +145)
• Dariush/Moicano, Fight Goes to Decision (+114, 0.25u) at FanDuel (bet to -120)
• Joshua Van wins by Decision (+165, 0.25u) at FanDuel
• Alt. Double Chance: Van wins by Decision or Royval wins by Submission (-105, 0.2u) at DraftKings (bet to -125)
• Kai Kara-France wins by KO/TKO (+600, 0.1u) at BallyBet (bet to +450)

Parlays

• SGP: Ilia Topuria & Under 0.5 Rounds (+450, 0.1u) at DraftKings (bet to +425)
• SGP: Ilia Topuria & Under 1.5 Rounds (+130, 0.1u) at DraftKings (bet to +120)
• SGP: Ilia Topuria & Under 2.5 Rounds (-128, 0.2u) at Caesars (bet to -150)

Live Bets

• Jhonata Diniz Live after R1
• Viacheslav Borshchev Live after Round 1
• Jose Delgado Live after Round 1
• Brandon Royval Live after Round 1