Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Oliveira Prediction, Pick, Odds for UFC 317 (Saturday, June 28)

Check out the Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Oliveira prediction for UFC 317 on Saturday, June 28, with my betting preview and breakdown.

Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Oliveira Odds

On Saturday, Charles Oliveira will look to reclaim his place atop the 155-pound division and recapture Lightweight gold against former Featherweight champion Ilia Topuria – who left the 145-pound title vacant in February to move up in weight and compete for a belt left vacant by Islam Makhachev (who will fight Jack Della Maddelena for the Welterweight title later in 2025).

The unbeaten, 16-0 Topuria enters off a pair of highlight-reel knockout wins over former Featherweight champions Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway. He has previously competed at 155 pounds, defeating Jai Herbert in March 2022. However, he was knocked down by a head kick in that fight before recovering and delivering a vicious knockout of his own, one of six finishes across his eight UFC contests.

Oliveira, a former Featherweight himself, is 14-3 since moving up to Lightweight permanently in 2017, including a 5-2 record in main events or five-round fights. After losing a competitive split decision in a title eliminator against Arman Tsarukyan (currently injured) Oliveira earned his way back into title contention with a five round decision against Michael Chandler last November.

The two champions will square off in the headline bout on International Fight Week.

Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC 317 Main Event on Saturday and utilize those factors to bet on these lightweights. They should make their cage walks at approximately 12:30 a.m. ET (9:00 p.m. PT) on ESPN+ PPV on Sunday morning.

Here's my Topuria vs. Oliveira pick and prediction.

Tale of the Tape

Charles Oliveira is the bigger man (3" taller, 5" reach advantage), and the far more natural Lightweight in this matchup. It's a wonder that Oliveira, who was forced to vacate his title before his win over Justin Gaethje, after missing weight by half a pound (fighters get an extra pound of leeway in non-title bouts), could have ever competed at 145 (where he missed weight multiple times).

In 2018, a then 21-year-old Topuria missed the 135-pound limit for the Cage Warriors Bantamweight title, but he has never had a weight miss at 145 pounds or in the UFC; nor did he seem like a particularly large Featherweight. His Lightweight fight with Herbert came on short notice. Moreover, Topuria showed excellent cardio and output in his five-round decision over Josh Emmett (attempted 14.6 strikes per minute; landed 6.1).

Still, while short for the division, Topuria carries a ton of muscle, and moving up in weight should give him a speed advantage over Oliveira and other Lightweights. Moreover, as he showed against Herbert, the power and explosiveness should carry to 155 with him. Topuria is one of the most dynamic, fast-twitch athletes in the sport, and adding muscle after a purposeful change in division should only help his competitive strength and power.

Oliveira is arguably the most dangerous finisher in the history of MMA, with a promotional record 20 finishes, including 16 by submission. And frankly, Topuria has largely fought grapplers (Bryce Mitchell, Ryan Hall, Damon Jackson, Youssef Zalal) or point fighters (Holloway, Volkanovski) on his UFC run. Both Herbert and, particularly, Josh Emmett are power punchers, but neither is in the same class of athlete or grappler as Do Bronx.

Oliveira also has the better kicking and is more dangerous in the clinch than Topuria, where he'll look to leverage his larger frame and hurt Ilia with knees to the body and head. Closing the distance will also enable him to initiate grappling exhcnages; still, while he's a World-Class mat grappler, I don't think Oliveira has reliable enough wrestling (career 40% takedown success; attempts 4.7 per minute) to be able to put Topuria (denied 13 of 14 career takedown attempts) on his back. And the last fighter who tried to pull guard against Topuria paid a big price for it.

Topuria's grappling is the most underrated aspect of his skill set, stemming from a foundation in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. He's controlled 79% of his grappling exchanges in the UFC (compared to 49% for Oliveira) and may look to prove a point by attempting to submit a decorated black belt, rather than knocking him out. Still, that sequence would likely come via club and sub.

Topuria should have a significant durability edge in this fight; Oliveira has taken a ton of damage throughout his career and has reacted poorly against powerful strikers, specifically in Round 1 of his first matchup against Michael Chandler, as well as in his fights with Justin Gaethje and Dustin Poirier. Moreover, he's been fighting against the mid-thirties "old guard" of the 155-pound division, rather than against, potentially, the best athlete in the sport pound for pound.

Topuria isn't the best minute winner, as he's typically competitive with opponents in terms of volume (+0.0 strike differential per minute), and he doesn't proactively grapple. However, he excels at making reads and adjusting to his opponents before looking to close the show with power strikes. He should have opportunities to knockout Oliveira from the opening bell.

While Oliveira is an incredible offensive fighter, he has some poor defensive tendencies, alongside durability concerns, particularly his lack of head movement, as he defends strikes at just a 49% clip, compared to 64% for Topuria, who is the much cleaner boxer.

Landing on a taller and longer opponent shouldn't be a problem for Ilia either; Herbert (6" taller, 8" reach advantage over Topuria) presented a literal taller task.

IF Oliveira can absord that damage and elongate the fight, he should stay competitive on output; still, he will need to find offensive grappling success in this fight to see his hand raised and pull the upset, whether by finish or decision, given the superior damage and durability optics for Topuria in an extended striking fight.

Still, I think that's a big if, and the betting market certainly agrees, setting Topuria as a substantial favorite. However, there are better ways to bet on the favorite rather than taking its moneyline.

Topuria vs. Oliveira Pick, Prediction

I projected Ilia Topuria as an 82.1% favorite (-460 implied odds) in this matchup, and I don't show value concerning either side of the moneyline.

Moreover, I projected the fight to end inside the distance 86% of the time (-639 implied odds) and don't show value concerning the distance prop or totals from a straight betting perspective.

While I lean toward betting Topuria to win by KO/TKO or inside the distance, I projected those lines at -139 and -240, respectively, compared to listed odds of -160 and -275.

However, I would be relatively shocked if Oliveira survived a sustained bearing only to get finished in the late rounds; Topuria wins in Round 1 (+200) or Round 2 (+380) are appealing; as are his early KO/TKO alternatives (+300 Round 1, +490 Round 2).

His inside the distance prop is steep, but you can take earlier iterations of that outcome at significantly better prices – and I do think he has enough of an ego to desire to submit a decorated jiu-jitsu practitioner as a statement to his well-rounded skillset.

I prefer to ladder Topuria's moneyline in SGP's (Same Game Parlays) with Under 0.5 (+475), Under 1.5 (+130), Under 2.5 (-130), and potentially Under 3.5 (-190) rounds too, rather than targeting the KO/TKO props.

Sean's Pick: SGP: Ilia Topuria & Under 0.5 Rounds (+450 at DraftKings) | SGP: Ilia Topuria & Under 1.5 Rounds (+130 at DraftKings) | SGP: Ilia Topuria & Under 2.5 Rounds (-128 at Caesars)