Check out the Brandon Royval vs. Josh Van pick for UFC 317 on Saturday, June 28, with my betting preview and breakdown.
Royval vs. Van Odds
| Royval Odds | -102 |
| Van Odds | -118 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-230/ +175) |
| Location | T-Mobile Arena Las Vegas, Nevada |
| Bout Time | 10:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ PPV |
| UFC 317 odds as of Friday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 317 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Brandon Royval has only ever lost to champions in the UFC, with two of his three losses coming under questionable circumstances — a shoulder injury in his loss to Brandon Moreno and an uncalled eye poke in his first loss to Alexandre Pantoja. As such, he serves as a perfect litmus test for the exciting flyweight prospect Josh Van, who has a remarkable 7-1 UFC record in just two years. A win for Van likely earns him the next title shot, but can Moreno close the door and keep himself in the title picture?
Here's my Royval vs. Van pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Royval | Van | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 17-7 | 14-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:01 | 13:37 |
| Height | 5'9" | 5'5" |
| Weight (pounds) | 125 lbs. | 125 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 68" | 65" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 8/16/1992 | 10/10/2001 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.46 | 8.20 |
| SS Accuracy | 39% | 54% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.06 | 5.26 |
| SS Defense | 47% | 59% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.75 | 0.96 |
| TD Acc | 75% | 63% |
| TD Def | 45% | 81% |
| Submission Avg | 1.2 | 0.0 |
Brandon "Raw Dog" Royval was originally booked for a matchup with the notoriously unreliable Manel Kape at UFC 317.
Like Kape, Van is probably just one fight away from challenging for the belt, keeping the stakes the same for Royval. With Kape out, Van is taking this fight just three weeks after knocking out Bruno Silva at UFC 316. This will be his sixth fight in the last year.
Two of Royval's three UFC losses have come to the current champion Alexandre Pantoja, putting him in a position to fend off future contenders while likely needing a new champion to get another crack at the belt.
Still, at worsts he's one of the three best flyweights in the world, and recently dispatched another exciting prospect, Tatsuro Taira.
This is a very different stylistic matchup for Royval. Taira is a creative and relentless grappler who was able to take Royval down six times, but unable to keep him there long enough to earn the decision.
Josh Van is an elite volume puncher who stays defensively sound in the pocket before responding with counter punches in bunches.
Van uses his jab well at distance, even against longer opponents, but the real magic happens at closer quarters. Where many fighters will retreat out of striking range when attacked, Van stays in the pocket and uses head movement to dodge shots, keeping him in position to counterstrike.
On occasion that can cost him, as we saw with the knockout loss to Charles Johnson. Royval isn't a big power puncher, though, and Van could probably make a mistake or two in the pocket without paying for it.
The bigger question I have is wehther Van can adapt his defense to facing a southpaw. His style inherently relies on very narrow margins in the pocket, since he's keeping tight quarters in order to counter.
The only officially listed southpaw he's faced in the UFC was Cody Durden, who primarily wrestled in that matchup. However, the stance-switching Charles Johnson did initiate the sequence that eventually felled Van from a left-handed stance, catching Van with a lead right hook.
That's somewhat concerning, but Van was just 22 years old at the time and has rattled off four straight wins. Still, since he's taking this fight on such short notice he doesn't have a dedicated training camp to devote to facing southpaws.
Like Van, Royval is more of a volume puncher than a one-strike knockout artist, but that volume could accumulate fast given the torrid schedule Van has kept. While Van hasn't taken much damage since the Johnson fight, it's fair to wonder how much damage has been done in the training room with this many camps in a year.
Brandon Royval vs. Josh Van Pick, Prediction
As I wrote in my Luck Ratings earlier in the week, if this fight was under normal circumstances I'd pick Josh Van confidently. The minor concerns I have with his game — notably defense against southpaws — are fairly fixable with a dedicated training camp.
As it stands now, I'm still betting on Josh Van prefight — but with a slight twist.
Royval has fought three consecutive five-round fights. In each of those, at least two judges awarded the opening frame to his opponent.
While I'd love for this fight to be contested over five rounds, we're just getting three. Royval is likely to somewhat pace himself in the early moments of this fight, as he's become accustomed to longer fights.
If that's the case, we could get a big price on Royval live after the first round, assuming Van is able to win the round. Plus, two weight cuts in such a short time frame can't be great for Van's cardio, so there's a chance he fades.
Thus, I'll be coming in with half of a unit on Van prefight, and look to bet another half on Royval, ideally at a line that locks in a profit either way.
Billy's Pick: Josh Van -115 (0.5u) at DraftKings | Brandon Royval Live After R1 (Best Available)
