After taking last week off, the UFC heads to Tennessee for UFC Nashville, featuring fan-favorite Derrick Lewis in the heavyweight main event.
Th entire 12-fight card airs at 7:00 ET on ESPN+.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was starting to think about why markets might be wrong rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, a betting line is a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events. These markets are usually efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA — where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA — it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to find the spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll look into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, making the line inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, later overruled fights, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights also considered.
The focus will be on fights that are reasonably likely to see the scorecards or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC Nashville odds as of Monday and via DraftKings. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC Nashville Predictions & Luck Ratings
Tallison Teixeira (-280) vs. Derrick Lewis (+210)
It's hard to get much of a read on Tallison Teixeira, given that we've seen just about 2:30 of him between his Contender Series appearance and UFC Debut.
His Contender Series opponent was a former welterweight who fought just once in the six years prior to his DWCS bout, and his UFC debut came against Justin Tafa. With that said, he's passed the fairly easy tests given to him so far with flying colors, with first round knockout victories in both contests.
He gets a big step up this time against Derrick Lewis, who holds the UFC record for most career knockouts. "The Black Beast" can put away anybody with strikes, and in my Contender Series breakdown on Teixeira I noted his willingness to brawl at times.
That makes it hard to trust the prospect as a heavy favorite given the circumstances. It's also hard to trust Lewis, who has alternated wins and losses since 2022 and at various points has shown up to fights sick, injured, or under trained.
For that reason I'm not picking a moneyline side at this point. It seems fairly likely that public money comes in on the popular Lewis, which theoretically could justify taking his +210 price tag now and hoping to arbitrage later, but I'm sitting this one out for now.
Verdict: Fairly Valued
Steve Garcia (-125) vs. Calvin Kattar (+105)
We've seen some line movement in both directions already in this featherweight fight. Garica opened as more than a -200 favorite in early markets, fell to about a pick 'em, but has now seen money push him back to being a favorite.
Garcia has five straight knockout victories, with none lasting more than six minutes. Kattar has never suffered a knockdown in the UFC, and his only career knockout loss was due to a knee injury he suffered in his fight against Arnold Allen.
This is a classic unstoppable force vs. immovable object matchup, but Kattar is 37 years old on a four-fight losing streak. He's also absorbed a ton of damage throughout his career, including a record 445 significant strikes against Max Holloway.
Garcia might just be able to finally crack Kattar's chin, and I'm happy to get the discounted price on him to do it. The best line is -120 on ESPNBet, though we probably see some continued line movement.
I'm also looking to bet Kattar live should Garcia not get the job done early. His power tends to fade in longer fights, whereas Kattar's volume and technique grow even stronger.
Verdict: Steve Garcia Undervalued
