76ers-Raptors Betting Guide: How to Bet This Over/Under

76ers-Raptors Betting Guide: How to Bet This Over/Under article feature image

Photos from USAToday Sports. Pictured: Ben Simmons and Kawhi Leonard

Betting odds: Philadelphia 76ers at Toronto Raptors

  • Spread: Raptors -6
  • Over/Under: 227
  • Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: NBA TV

>> All odds as of 12 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NBA odds and track your bets

The Toronto Raptors rested superstar Kawhi Leonard on Monday night against the 6-0 Milwaukee Bucks to face the Philadelphia 76ers on Tuesday night. The Raptors seem to be taking this future rivalry seriously.

Can Philly score against this elite Toronto defensive unit, or will the Raptors roll at home? Our analysts are here to help.

Betting Trends to Know

Philly is 0-3 against the spread on the road this season, failing to cover by 8.7 points per game. This continues a trend from last season in which the 76ers struggled to cover on the road but were profitable at home:

  • Home games since 2017: 28-15 (65%) ATS
  • Road games since 2017: 20-22-2 (48%) ATSJohn Ewing

Since 2013, the Raptors are 10-0 straight-up and 7-3 ATS at home in at Air Canada Centre against the Sixers. Over that span, the Raptors are beating Philly by 19.6 points per game and covering the spread by 7.8 points per game.

Between Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid’s injuries to start their careers, Simmons has played only two games in Toronto (14 PPG, 41.4% FG%), while Embiid has played just one (14 points, 8 rebounds in 22 minutes).

Over this span, the Raptors are undefeated SU at home against three teams: The Sixers (10-0), Wolves (6-0) and Grizzlies (5-0). Evan Abrams

Mears: Why I’m Interested in the Over/Under

I’ll be blunt: I’m just not sure how Philadelphia — in this game or in a playoff series — can consistently score on this Toronto defense.

The 76ers have been fine getting 3-pointers up, ranking ninth in 3-point rate per Cleaning the Glass, but they aren’t a great shooting team, especially with Markelle Fultz and Simmons playing together more. And so far this season, Philly has been terrible at getting to the rim, finishing possessions there only 30.3% of the time — 28th in the league ahead of only the Spurs and Celtics.

In addition, even though Philly is getting up 3s, they aren’t the easy ones: Corner 3-pointers. Per Cleaning the Glass, only 4.8% of Philly’s possessions have ended with a corner 3, the third-fewest in the league.

So how does Philly generate offense? Mostly through transition.

Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Ben Simmons, Markelle Fultz

The 76ers are fourth in both transition frequency and efficiency this season. It makes sense, of course: Simmons and Fultz aren’t shooters, but they’re excellent at pushing the pace, especially off live rebounds. This team has also generated a lot of steals and has been able to get layup opportunities off those.

But you’d have to imagine Toronto knows this. So far this season Toronto has ranked 11th in limiting transition opportunities, although I’d expect that the Raptors would emphasize slowing down the pace and getting back against Philly. And again, that would definitely favor the Raptors, who are allowing just 85.7 points per 100 possessions in the half court this season, the fourth-best mark in the league.

All that said, I think the spread is probably about right; the Raptors are definitely a couple points better on a neutral court.

I am a little interested in the under here, however, as it’s high at 227, and I think if the Raptors are optimizing their defensive strategy to win the game, they’ll make this a slower half-court affair. Bryan Mears

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.

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