Locky: Is There Value in Houston at Home for Game 7?

Locky: Is There Value in Houston at Home for Game 7? article feature image

Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Eric Gordon

I wonder if there’s a creative prop out there for when THIS Game 7’s point total will pass the full-game total for Sunday night’s Game 7 between the Cavs and Celtics. Offer it in two-minute increments and juice the heck out of it; I don’t care. It’d be fun, that’s all.

The point is, we’re going to see more offense and more shooting in just a tiny bit of this game than we saw from that slugfest. I was very interested in the under Sunday night, expecting just that. I was very interested in Game 5’s under in THIS series, expecting fatigue and shortened rotations to be a huge factor. As for this game? They’ve shortened the total by six (!) points from Game 6, and it’s now in a zone where I’m not very interested. I’d still lean under if you wanted to take a side, but there isn’t that obvious value that there has been elsewhere in the playoffs.


As for the spread, I think this is a fairly interesting topic of conversation. This seems clearly an overreaction to one game, even though it’s not that extreme of one. The spread for Game 6 closed at 12.5 (after opening 10.5) — a 5.5 (ish)-point difference from the closing number in Game 4 in Oakland. Basically, one could make the argument that the market deemed Chris Paul was worth 5.5 points in that situation.

Now we go back to Houston off that embarrassing loss, and the same “Chris Paul” value is being assigned in this game. I honestly just think this number’s a little too big. I’m not running to the window to bet Houston, but its role players are going to play so much better in this game than they did Saturday night. The variables aren’t identical to Game 6 because Paul is so much more valuable in that road situation as a star whose game travels so much better. The Warriors won’t have their “spurtability” (to steal a fake word from TV commentators), or at least won’t be as prone to having those types of runs, because they won’t have their home crowd, which has absolutely been a theme this entire playoffs. Basically, this isn’t just Game 6 being run back again, so the spread being treated as such feels like a small mistake.

All that said, the spread is also a pass for me, because I don’t think there’s THAT much of a difference between the number and what I think the number should be. But if you’re reading this, you’re at least somewhat interested in opinions and making a bet on a game you know you’re watching anyway. You want action, and this is a network named after that philosophy. So what I’m saying is, given the choice: Houston and the under. Just please, please, please, can the teams not combine to shoot 16-for-74 from 3? I can’t take two straight days of that.

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