Game 7 Trends: Warriors Are Only the Second Road Favorite Since 2005

Credit:

Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kevin Durant and James Harden

The Action Network analysts John Ewing and Evan Abrams comb the Bet Labs database each day to bring you profitable trends for the slate. Here are notable historical trends for Rockets-Warriors Game 7.

The Rockets opened as 4-point home underdogs in Game 7. Since 2005, there has been only one home dog in a Game 7: the 2015 Rockets vs. the Los Angeles Clippers in the Western Conference semifinals. Houston won the game.


The line has moved from Warriors -4 to -6. In Game 7s since 2005, teams have gone 12-18 against the spread when the line has moved in their direction. If the line moved by a point or more, the team that has seen the line movement in its favor has gone 5-7 straight-up and 4-8 ATS.

That said, favorites of more than three points in Game 7s have gone 24-12 (67%) ATS since 2005.


MORE WARRIORS-ROCKETS GAME 7 COVERAGE



Game 7 will be the sixth time the Warriors have faced elimination since Steve Kerr became their coach. In the previous five games, Golden State went 4-1 SU and ATS and was favored on average by 5.7 points and won by 9.8 points.


Here we are: The Warriors are again playing against a Western Conference opponent in a Game 6 or 7 in the playoffs. Under Kerr, Golden State is 4-0 SU and ATS in such games, winning two of the games on the road … which is what it will need to do to advance to its fourth consecutive NBA Finals.


Since Christmas Day, the Rockets have played five home games without Chris Paul. They’ve gone 5-0 SU in those but just 2-3 ATS due to being favored by at least 8.5 points in all five games.


As expected, the Warriors are receiving the public action on the road, which may be a good omen for the champs. Since 2005, underdogs receiving fewer than 50% of tickets in a Game 7 have gone just 3-10 SU and 4-9 ATS. That said, only one home team has been in this spot: the 2015 Rockets mentioned above, who won their game.


How have the Warriors performed after covering the spread by double digits in their previous game?

Golden State has gone 12-11 ATS in the playoffs under Kerr but has failed to cover the spread in its past five games in this spot in this year’s playoffs (1-5 ATS overall).

In the conference finals, the Warriors have gone just 2-5 ATS in this situation, failing to cover by 11.7 PPG.

The good news for Warriors fans? In the regular season under Kerr, Golden State has gone 45-19 ATS after covering the spread by double digits — the most profitable team in the NBA (+24 units).


How have the Warriors performed in the first half after covering the spread by double digits in their previous game?

In 2018, to put it simply: It’s been a mess. The Warriors have gone 3-16-1 against the first-half spread after covering by double digits in their previous game, failing to cover the first-half spread by almost six full points in those games (regular season and playoffs).

In its past 16 games in this spot, Golden State has gone 1-15 against the first-half spread, failing to cover by more than 7 PPG. In this year’s playoffs, Golden State has gone 0-6 against the first-half spread in this spot, failing to cover by 9.6 PPG.


On Jan. 30, Kerr said this after a 129-99 loss to the Jazz after Golden State had won three straight and 12 of its past 14 games: “I think our guys will tell you that was a pathetic effort out there. … We just didn’t start out the game with any force defensively. We weren’t staying into bodies, they were just stopping behind screens, we were lazy on our switches. We played with no sense of urgency, no sense of purpose, and they’re obviously fighting for the playoffs.”

Since that loss, Golden State has gone 0-9 against the first-half spread after covering by double digits in its previous game. The Warriors have gone 7-22 against the first-half spread after winning their last game SU.

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