Public bettors made out like bandits last night, barely breaking a sweat as their three favorite plays swept the board. So are they due for some regression tonight?
These three plays, found using The Action Network’s betting percentage data, will have a lot to say about that.
Toronto Blue Jays-Baltimore Orioles Over 8.5
7:05 p.m. ET
Another day, another public over. Attracting 85% of bettors, this is the most lopsided play across all sports tonight. To this point, 94% of over/under dollars are also on the over — though that should even out as we approach game time — and the juice has moved from -110 to -115.
Why the public loves the over: Putting aside the fact that overs are obviously more fun to root for, the public is likely basing this pick off the pitching matchup. Andrew Cashner has already given up four home runs this season, and opposing teams are batting .318 against Aaron Sanchez thus far.
You might be surprised to know, however, that in their four combined starts this year, no game has exceeded eight runs.
New York Mets (-190) at Miami Marlins
7:10 p.m. ET
With Jacob deGrom facing the team with the lowest expectations entering this season, the Mets are the most popular side on today’s baseball board. Despite their -190 price, the Mets are getting 72% of bets and 84% of dollars, and are essentially holding their opening line.
Why the public loves the Mets: Did I mention the low expectations for the Marlins this season? Miami entered the season with a projected win total of 64.5, four fewer than the next-lowest total. Throw a starter such as deGrom against those expectations and you’ll have the public on your side no matter the price.
Houston Rockets (-8) at Los Angeles Lakers
10:30 p.m. ET
Houston has attracted 77% of bettors as an eight-point favorite in LA, making them the most popular NBA side tonight. Despite their popularity, only 40% of spread dollars have landed on the Rockets, which has dropped them down from their opening line of -8.5.
Why the public loves Houston: On top of the fact that Houston is 30 games ahead of L.A., the Rockets’ most recent performance is likely playing a role in attracting public bettors. Because Houston has lost only 16 games all season, the public is almost certainly expecting a bounce-back game from the Rockets after their loss to Oklahoma City on Saturday.
Photo: James Harden