While we don’t have public bet percentages on specific player props, we do have them for the spreads and over/unders of each game. By identifying discrepancies between the percentage of betting tickets and percentage of money in a particular game, we can find situations where the books may be undervaluing teams, and by relation, players, in certain spots.
With that in mind, here are three props from Thursday night’s slate that are worth considering:
- Al-Farouq Aminu over/under 10.5 points (@ NO) — 9 p.m. ET
- Damian Lillard over/under 6.5 assists (@ NO) — 9 p.m. ET
- Dejounte Murray over/under 9.5 points (vs. GS) — 9:30 p.m. ET
All lines accurate as of 7 p.m. ET on Thursday, April 19.
Blazers PF Al-Farouq Aminu Under 10.5 Points at Pelicans (-130)
9 p.m. ET | NBA TV
All trends point to Aminu hitting the under here. During the regular season, he averaged fewer points on the road (8.9) than at home (9.8) and fewer points post-All-Star Break (9.0) than pre-All-Star Break (9.5). He’s only put up 8.4 points per game in eight combined regular season and postseason games this month. More than two-thirds of the public (and more than 80% of the money) is backing New Orleans tonight, and if you’re part of that group, it’s worth noting Aminu’s scored 50 points combined over the Pelicans’ past seven losses — and that includes his 14 points on an unsustainable 4-of-6 shooting from downtown in Game 2.