3 NBA Props for Thursday: Dejounte Murray Over/Under 9.5 Points?
While we don’t have public bet percentages on specific player props, we do have them for the spreads and over/unders of each game. By identifying discrepancies between the percentage of betting tickets and percentage of money in a particular game, we can find situations where the books may be undervaluing teams, and by relation, players, in certain spots.
With that in mind, here are three props from Thursday night’s slate that are worth considering:
- Al-Farouq Aminu over/under 10.5 points (@ NO) — 9 p.m. ET
- Damian Lillard over/under 6.5 assists (@ NO) — 9 p.m. ET
- Dejounte Murray over/under 9.5 points (vs. GS) — 9:30 p.m. ET
All lines accurate as of 7 p.m. ET on Thursday, April 19.
Blazers PF Al-Farouq Aminu Under 10.5 Points at Pelicans (-130)
9 p.m. ET | NBA TV
All trends point to Aminu hitting the under here. During the regular season, he averaged fewer points on the road (8.9) than at home (9.8) and fewer points post-All-Star Break (9.0) than pre-All-Star Break (9.5). He’s only put up 8.4 points per game in eight combined regular season and postseason games this month. More than two-thirds of the public (and more than 80% of the money) is backing New Orleans tonight, and if you’re part of that group, it’s worth noting Aminu’s scored 50 points combined over the Pelicans’ past seven losses — and that includes his 14 points on an unsustainable 4-of-6 shooting from downtown in Game 2.
Blazers PG Damian Lillard Under 6.5 Assists at Pelicans (-114)
9 p.m. ET | NBA TV
Playing outside the Moda Center hasn’t been kind to Lillard’s assist numbers: During the regular season, he averaged 1.1 fewer assists per game on the road (6.0) than at home (7.1). Despite logging 41.2 minutes per game in the series, Lillard has averaged only 5.5 assists through two games. In fact, minutes haven’t been translating into assists for Lillard all season: In 11 combined regular-season and postseason games in which he’s played 40 minutes or more, he’s averaged only 5.7 assists per game. And the same thing that applied to Aminu also applies here: If you’re backing the Pelicans in this spot, it makes sense to fade Lillard because he averages 11% fewer assists per game in losses than in wins.
Spurs PG Dejounte Murray Under 9.5 Points (-115)
9:30 p.m. ET | TNT
It’s difficult to know how Ettore Messina’s rotations will compare to that of Gregg Popovich, who is not with the team after the passing of his wife. That said, Murray played 22:44 in Game 1 and just 12:38 in Game 2. This one’s not as much about the public bet percentages (though there’s a higher percentage of money than tickets on both Golden State and the under) as it is about a player who averaged 8.1 points on 21.5 minutes and 56.2 touches per game in the regular season now getting only 17.7 minutes and 37.7 touches through two playoff games, per NBA Stats. With Warriors head coach Steve Kerr inserting forward Andre Iguodala into the starting unit for point guard Quinn Cook in this series, Murray has drawn Iguodala more than any other defender. Iggy has limited Murray 10.1 fewer points per 100 possessions than his seasonal average (and did even better on a small sample of eight possessions during the regular season).
Pictured above: Dejounte Murray
Photo credit: Cary Edmondson — USA TODAY Sports