3 NBA Props for Tuesday: Draymond Over/Under 9.5 Rebounds?

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Pictured: Draymond Green. Photo credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

The NBA Props article offers data-driven analysis on player prop bets for each day’s slate using The Action Network’s public betting data along with the tools at FantasyLabs and Sports Insights to highlight notable props.

Tuesday’s analysis will cover the following three props:

  • Kevin Love over/under 9.5 rebounds, Cleveland at Toronto (8 p.m. ET)
  • George Hill over/under 9.5 points, Cleveland at Toronto (8 p.m. ET).
  • Draymond Green over/under 9.5 rebounds, Golden State vs. New Orleans (10:30 p.m. ET).

All lines accurate as of 5:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday, May 1. Looking for more props? Check out the FantasyLabs NBA Player Props tool.

 

Kevin Love Under 9.5 Rebounds (-114)

8 p.m. ET | TNT

The under on this prop would have gone 4-3 in Round 1, with Love failing to top even eight rebounds in all four of those games, and his season-long splits point to the under again. The Cavs go into Toronto as seven-point underdogs, and during the regular season Love averaged 0.9 fewer rebounds per game at home than on the road and 2.3 fewer rebounds per game in losses than in wins. If Tristan Thompson sticks in the rotation, it would also be a plus for the under here, as Love’s rebounding rate in the first round (11.3%) came in third behind Thompson’s (20.5%) and LeBron’s (15.9%) in the 26 minutes all three shared the floor.

George Hill Under 9.5 Points (-120)

8 p.m. ET | TNT

Hill scored 13 and 11 points in Game 6 and Game 7 of Round 1, but he had 17 free throw attempts across those two games — way above his average of 1.7 per game with the Cavs during the regular season. And Hill draws a tough matchup in Kyle Lowry, who finished the regular season ranked eighth among 103 qualifying point guards in ESPN’s Defensive Real Plus-Minus. But more so than likely free throw regression or the tough matchup, the value on the under for this prop comes from the minutes restriction that head coach Tyronn Lue has reportedly instituted for Hill. The balky-backed 31-year-old needed 27.9 minutes per game to average 9.4 points with Cleveland in the regular season, leaving the odds stacked in favor of under 9.5 points if his minutes are going to continue to be capped in the low 20s.

Draymond Green Over 9.5 Rebounds (-125)

10:30 p.m. ET | TNT

In our Game 2 preview of Warriors-Pelicans, Bryan Mears notes that the Warriors play at the slowest pace in the league with Stephen Curry out of the lineup, but maintain a top-five pace with Curry on the floor. A faster pace means more chances for the Pelicans to miss shots against the NBA’s No. 3 defense in field goal percentage allowed during the regular season (44.7%) and No. 1 defense in field goal percentage allowed in the playoffs (41.7%). It doesn’t hurt that Green has been crashing the glass hard lately, corralling no fewer than 15 rebounds in each of his past three playoff games.

Pictured above: Draymond Green
Photo credit: Derick E. Hingle – USA TODAY Sports

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