NBA Betting, DFS Angles for Every Thursday Game

Blake Griffin, now a Piston. Walking down the halls of Little Caesars Arena (sick name) hearing the classic nicknames we’ve grown to love.

We’ll get our first glimpse of how Griffah meshes with the Pistons as they host the Grizzlies. I think it’s also a safe assumption that James Harden eclipses 100 points again. Did you know: Harden has averaged 103.5 Draftkings points over his past one game? Is he a safe play down in San Antonio? Is it worth rostering Griffin in his debut? Will Russell Westbrook go for a big game of his own in the Mile High City?

Our NBA experts break out all the data for tonight’s five game slate below. — Mark Gallant

All info as of Thursday afternoon. Check back during the day for and keep an eye on our Twitter handle for any updates.

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MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES AT DETROIT PISTONS (-8.5) | O/U: 203

7 p.m. ET

Injury watch: Tyreke Evans has played his last game for the Grizzlies this season, as the team will hold him out through the trade deadline until a deal is done. Their Offensive Rating has dropped from 105.7 (13th) with him on the court to 100.8 (29th) with him off; they’ve predictably struggled to generate quality looks. Chandler Parsons (knee) and Mario Chalmers (hamstring) will remain out, with JaMychal Green (ankle), James Ennis (illness), and Deyonta Davis (knee) considered questionable. Memphis will likely have to continue to lean heavily on Marc Gasol and Wayne Selden. The Pistons will welcome Blake Griffin to the lineup, and he’ll start in his debut. — Justin Phan

What I'm watching for: Blake’s debut, obviously. Does Griffin come out and set a tone as the team’s best player? Does he try and just integrate into the scheme and get teammates involved? How do the guards operate with him? How does Drummond? Griffin should have a field day vs. an undersized and undermanned Grizzlies team on a back-to-back, but that depends on how aggressive he is. — Matt Moore

What the metrics say: Blake Griffin has historically had a large impact on his team's offensive efficiency. Prior to this season, every year in his career he had increased his team's field goal percentage at the rim by at least 4.9 percent. He had been in the 90th-plus percentile in every season but this one; he ranks in the ninth percentile this season. That's odd, although he still had a profound impact on the Clippers' 3-point efficiency: LA shot 7.2 percent better from 3 when he was on the floor this year, and he's historically rated well in that regard throughout his career. Blake is obviously a dynamic offensive player, and it will be interesting to see whether he can make the Pistons more efficient from important areas of the floor. They rank 20th and 17th in frequency of shots from the rim and 3-point line, respectively, this season. — Bryan Mears

DFS nugget: The Grizzlies have the potential to be extremely shorthanded for today’s contest, and one player who has stepped up for them of late is Dillon Brooks. He’s seen a usage bump of 4.1 percent with all the injured/inactive Grizzlies off the floor this season and played 40 minutes in yesterday’s contest. He could be forced into a big workload once again. — Matt LaMarca

Trend to know: Over the past 10 seasons, the Grizzlies are 65-39-1 ATS (62.5%) when listed as underdogs on a back-to-back. Memphis is the most profitable NBA team of the past decade in this spot. They've gone 19-7 ATS (73.1%) in this situation over the past three seasons.— Evan Abrams

TORONTO RAPTORS (-3.5) AT WASHINGTON WIZARDS | O/U: 214

7 p.m. ET

Injury watch: C.J. Miles is considered questionable with a sore knee, while Fred VanVleet (personal) has been ruled out. The Raptors’ bench ranks third in efficiency this season, so depth certainly isn’t an issue. Norman Powell would slide into Miles’ rotation spot if he ends up being ruled out, and Delon Wright would make for an intriguing DFS punt option at just $3,800 on FanDuel, where he has an 86 percent Bargain Rating. John Wall will remain out for the next six weeks.  — Justin Phan

DFS nugget: No member of the Wizards has provided a higher Plus/Minus with Wall off the court this season than Otto Porter. He’s seen a usage bump of 3.7 percent and has averaged 0.98 DraftKings points per minute in that situation, and he’s projected for 34.4 minutes in today’s contest. At $6,600, that makes him a strong potential value. — Matt LaMarca

What I’m watching for: The line is low considering the advantages Toronto has here. No John Wall, and while Wall was limited this season with his knee, and Washington played well in their first game without him, it’s still a big loss. The Raptors’ bench will run roughshod over this group, which continues to struggle. Toronto has the stretch defensive options in Serge Ibaka and OG Anunoby to contain the Wizards’ smallball lineups with Otto Porter, and the Raptors are 15-11 this season on the road. So … yeah, I like Toronto.  — Matt Moore

What the metrics say: The Raptors rank fourth on both offense and defense, whereas the Wizards rank 11th in both categories. They own top-10 half court defenses, and they're especially stout in transition given their elite guards and wing length. They aren't completely dissimilar teams, with Toronto just being the deeper, superior squad at the moment. That said, note where the game is being played: The Wizards have stark home/road splits this season, posting a +4.9 net rating in Washington versus a -2.0 mark on the road. The Raptors' +3.7 net rating on the road is the fourth-best mark in the league, but it's nowhere close to their league-best +10.4 mark at home. Usually role players perform better at home, but for Washington it's been their starters, who have posted a +7.9 net rating there this season. — Bryan Mears

Trend to know: Wall played every game for Washington in 2013-14 but has since missed 28 games over the past four seasons. The Wizards are only 14-14 straight-up in those contests but 18-10 ATS. — John Ewing

MILWAUKEE BUCKS AT MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES (-6) | O/U: 208.5

8 p.m. ET

Injury watch: Eric Bledsoe was limited to just three minutes in Monday’s win due to a sore ankle, which will keep him out of Wednesday’s game. Jason Terry (personal) has also been ruled out. Sterling Brown and Tony Snell will pick up most of Bledsoe’s minutes, although the focus should be on Giannis Antetokounmpo. No player averages more points in the paint this season than Giannis at 16.6 per game, and the Wolves have allowed the highest field goal percentage (65%) to opponents within five feet of the rim. — Justin Phan

What the metrics say: The Bucks have changed their defense without Jason Kidd, but not everything is different; they're still quite bad on the boards, for example. One important trend, though, is the aggression over the past couple of games from Giannis Antetokounmpo. He's been Milwaukee's offensive sun of late, using about 40 percent of their possessions while on the floor and posting a sky-high assist rate. And they've been excellent as a team as a result, leading the NBA with a +9.6 net rating over their past five games. The Wolves, meanwhile, have been trending in the opposite direction, ranking 27th with a -6.2 net rating over that same time period. Perhaps they need to get their stud, Karl-Anthony Towns, more touches: He posted a mind-boggling low 15.6 percent usage rate in their last game. — Bryan Mears

What I’m watching for: Bryan nailed it: Towns has been in a weird state of offensive disappearance lately. He’s taken double-digit field goal attempts just twice in the last seven games. Missing shots? Sure. But not taking them? And letting Andrew Wiggins take a ton? Weird. The Bucks should provide ample opportunity for him to feast; he ate John Henson up last time out. I want to see where KAT’s offensive head is at. — Matt Moore

DFS nugget: Antetokounmpo has not suffered DFS-wise since Prunty took over as interim coach, but there is some reason for pessimism moving forward. He’s played an average of just 34.3 minutes per game over his past three contests, which is a far cry from the 38+ he averaged under Jason Kidd. He’s made up for it by posting a usage rate of at least 35.9 percent in all three of those games, but if that dips at all, it could be tough for Giannis to return value at his elevated salary on FanDuel ($12,000). — Matt LaMarca

Trend No. 1 to know: The Timberwolves have been two completely different teams against the Eastern and Western Conferences this season:

• vs. East: 8-13 SU, 7-13-1 ATS, -0.4 net rating
• vs. West: 24-9 SU, 20-13 ATS, +5.0 net rating — Evan Abrams

Trend No. 2 to know: The Bucks are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS since firing Jason Kidd. During that span, they rank first in net rating, first in offensive efficiency, and third in defensive efficiency. — Evan Abrams

HOUSTON ROCKETS (-1.5) AT SAN ANTONIO SPURS | O/U: 209.5

8 p.m. ET | TNT

Injury watch: The Rockets could be without two major rotation pieces, as Chris Paul (groin) and Eric Gordon (back) are considered questionable. Coach Mike D’Antoni talked previously about taking a cautious approach with Paul, so even if he plays expect D’Antoni to keep an eye on his minutes. With Paul sidelined and Gordon injured early in Tuesday’s win, James Harden tied the DFS single-game record for DraftKings points with 103.5. That’s not happening against the Spurs and their No. 2 rated defense, but he’d garner strong consideration as the premier DFS spend on the slate should Paul and/or Gordon be ruled out. — Justin Phan

What I'm watching for: Harden has had trouble with the Spurs, but no Kawhi Leonard takes away his biggest issue. This is still a big game for the Rockets. A win secures a 2-0 lead in the four-game season series, which means they can’t lose head-to-head tiebreaker. It would put them five up on the Spurs with 33 games to go.— Matt Moore

What the metrics say: The Rockets really only struggle in a couple of areas. Two of note are in transition — they rank 30th in transition defense — and in deterring shots at the rim. Those issues could come up against athletic teams like the Warriors, Thunder, or Wolves, but this Spurs team doesn't seem to pose a serious threat in this regard. San Antonio ranks 27th in frequency of shots at the rim and 17th in transition offense. Matt wrote about the "Math Game" last week in relation to the Wolves, and things are even more dire for the Spurs minus Leonard against the Rockets. There just aren't enough mid-rangers in the world to overcome a likely barrage of 3-pointers and high-efficiency shots from Houston. Of course, never count out Pop, and especially at home. — Bryan Mears

DFS nuggets: Pau Gasol has been awesome on a per-minute basis this season, averaging 1.14 fantasy points per minute on DraftKings. He has a strong matchup with the Rockets (+3.36 Opponent Plus/Minus), and his salary has decreased by $1,200 on DraftKings over the past month. If he sees some additional playing time in today’s contest, he could be a major value at $5,700. — Matt LaMarca

Did you know No. 1: Over the past decade, the Spurs have been listed as home underdogs in the regular season just eight times prior to their game tonight against the Rockets, by far the fewest in the NBA. The next-closest team (Rockets, ironically enough) has been a home dog 52 times during this span. — Evan Abrams and John Ewing

Did you know No. 2: Harden tied the DFS record for most DraftKings points in a game (103.5) Tuesday against the Orlando Magic. Two of those three 103.5-point performances have come within the past two weeks. — John Ewing

Trend to know: The Rockets are No. 2 in offensive efficiency this season behind the Warriors. Over the past 10 seasons, the Spurs have struggled mightily against the most efficient offenses in the league. Here's their record vs. units with a mark of 110 or higher:

• 37-49-1 ATS (43%)
• -$1,359 loss (-15.6% ROI) for a $100/game bettor
• 15-26-1 ATS (36.6%) when the team also has a winning percentage of 70% or higher — Evan Abrams

OKC THUNDER (-1.5) AT DENVER NUGGETS | O/U: 217

10:30 p.m. ET | TNT

Injury watch: Mason Plumlee remains sidelined indefinitely with a calf injury, while Gary Harris (ankle) is listed as probable. Coach Mike Malone opted to start Darrell Arthur in place of Plumlee in Tuesday’s loss, and it’s likely he’ll stick with that look on Thursday with Trey Lyles coming off the bench. The biggest thing the Nuggets will have going for them is the continued absence of Andre Roberson, as Oklahoma City has been a trainwreck defensively this season when he’s been off the court. Their Defensive Rating is an abysmal 108.1 in those minutes, which would rank 26th in the league. — Justin Phan

What I'm watching for: The Nuggets played terrible basketball and won three games in a row last week. They played great basketball and lost two games to the Celtics and Spurs by a combined three points. That’s how it goes. The Thunder, meanwhile, looked like their horrible November selves vs. the Wizards this week. They lost to Denver earlier this season in one of their many early-year lowlights. Do they respond? Or are we going to have to start talking about just how big that Andre Roberson injury was?— Matt Moore

What the metrics say: This game could come down to Mike Malone, who can't seem to find rotations he trusts. Jamal Murray came off the bench the other game due to some internal team issue, but they can't really function without him. With Murray on the floor this season, the Nuggets have increased their effective field goal percentage by 3.6 percent, they've shot 5.3 percent better at the rim, and they've shot 2.6 percent better from the 3-point line. Those marks are miles better than Emmanuel Mudiay's, of course, but they're also much better than the marks of Will Barton, who is having to run the offense a bit more lately, thanks to Malone's rotations. The Thunder's defense is stout, and they're an uber-talented team: Any extended run without Murray could prove disastrous. Over the past 10 games, the top-two lineups without him have averaged 79.0 and 88.4 points per 100 possessions. — Bryan Mears

DFS nugget: Steven Adams played 39 minutes in the Thunder’s most recent game against the Wizards, and he could be asked to play similar minutes today to combat the Nuggets' size. Adams has been pretty productive over the past month, averaging 1.03 fantasy points per minute, and he’s exceeded salary-based expectations by an average of 6.60 points over his past eight games. — Matt LaMarca

Top photo via Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports