Well, well, well. I guess that’s why you don’t make LeBron a 7-point dog in the second round of the playoffs.

Now, he’s a … 6.5-point dog …

Is it worth hopping back on the Cavs, or does history suggest otherwise? Plus, we have Game 2 in Boston. Those trustworthy 76ers were no match for Brad Stevens and Co. in Game 1. What did the young stars in Philly learn for tonight’s affair? — Mark Gallant

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GAME 2: CLEVELAND CAVALIERS AT TORONTO RAPTORS (-6.5) | O/U: 212.5

Cleveland Leads 1-0

6 p.m. ET | ESPN


John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

What the metrics say: Game 2 is the game of impending regression. The problem is both teams probably consider themselves a bit unlucky. Let’s start with the Raptors: They took a whopping 48% of their shots at the rim, which signifies good offense; that’s in the 97th percentile of games this season. Unfortunately, the lid was closed the entire night: They hit just 18-of-39 shots at the rim (fourth percentile) and 9-of-28 from 3 (32nd percentile). Cleveland ranked dead-last in effective field-goal percentage allowed this season, so Toronto won’t be that bad shooting again. That said, LeBron James was exhausted after Game 7 against Indiana and shot just 12-of-30, including 1-of-8 from the 3-point line. That won’t continue either. Which team will have regression hit the hardest tonight? — Bryan Mears

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Credit:

Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

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