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Bucks-Celtics Betting Guide: Is the Market Still Undervaluing Milwaukee?

Nov 01, 2018 5:48 PM EDT

Photos from USAToday Sports. Pictured: Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jayson Tatum

Betting odds: Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics

  • Spread: Celtics -3
  • Over/Under: 221.5
  • Time: 8 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: TNT

>> All odds as of 12 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NBA odds and track your bets

The Milwaukee Bucks are the last undefeated team left in the NBA (7-0) and will face a tough test on Thursday night against the Boston Celtics. This line opened at Celtics -2, suggesting these teams are nearly even on a neutral court.

Will the Bucks keep rolling, or will the Celtics remind Milwaukee who is in control of the East? Our analysts weigh in.

Moore: What I’m Watching for Tonight

OK, consider this more of a theoretical testing ground than anything. Read below in the “Betting Trends to Know” section for all of Evan’s great reasons why the under seems like a spectacular play here.

All right, so these are the two best defenses in the league — the only two teams allowing fewer than 100 points per possession — which in this scoring economy is basically an Iron Curtain of defense.

So I was curious what has happened historically when defenses such as these have met. I spitballed and put the threshold Defensive Rating at 103. Basically, if you have a Defensive Rating below 103 over the past few years since the Warriors started warping reality, you’re doing pretty well.

Since 2015, the over has gone 193-170-5 when two teams with sub-103 Defensive Ratings have met, a figure that shocked me considering, I mean, it’s a rock fight. However, with how games tend to buck conventional thinking, that had me leaning pretty hard toward the over in this matchup.


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