Bucks vs. Pistons Game 2 Betting Preview: Bank on Another Blowout?

Bucks vs. Pistons Game 2 Betting Preview: Bank on Another Blowout? article feature image

Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Giannis Antetokounmpo (34).

Game 2 Betting Odds: Milwaukee Bucks vs. Detroit Pistons

  • Spread: Bucks -15
  • Over/Under: 213
  • Time: 8 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: NBA TV
  • Series Score: Bucks Lead 1-0

>> All odds as of 10:30 a.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds and live win probabilities on your bets.

The Bucks jumped all over the Pistons early in Game 1 and never looked back from their 20-point lead at the end of the first quarter. Can we expect a similar blowout on Tuesday with another huge spread? Let’s take a look at the matchup.

Betting Trends to Know

In Game 1, the Bucks took care of business, beating the Pistons by 35 points. It was nothing new for Milwaukee, which has dominated inferior opponents all season to the tune of a 22-13 against-the-spread record when facing a team with a negative point differential. That equates to a 7.8-unit profit, making Milwaukee the third-most profitable team in the league in this spot. –– Evan Abrams

Since 2005, teams that lost their previous game by 30 or more points have gone 22-17 (56.4%) ATS in the playoffs. — John Ewing

Blake Griffin didn’t play in Game 1 and is questionable for Game 2 with a knee injury. The Pistons have played eight games this season without Griffin. They’re 2-6 straight up and against the spread without Griffin, including 1-5 SU and ATS on the road, with their only win coming against the Knicks. — Evan Abrams

Locky: Game 1 Wasn’t a Fluke

Much like the Pacers-Celtics Game 2, we are just running it back with pretty much the same spread as Game 1 (currently -15 or -15.5 across the market), and Game 1 was barely watchable past the first 10 minutes.

Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Blake Griffin and Giannis Antetokounmpo.

I don’t know what Detroit can do here. Luke Kennard actually played pretty well, probably better than he will play the rest of the series. Reggie Jackson and Andre Drummond were sieves on defense but didn’t shoot very poorly. What, are the Pistons going to suddenly find a way to not leave Thon Maker on an island against Giannis?

There isn’t a tweak to make here. The Pistons are smoked; it’s just a matter of how long the funeral lasts. Adjustments don’t solve this mismatch.

You could make a case that everyone saw Game 1, and so Detroit is somehow a contrarian smart bet here, but I would disagree. First off, the number is the same as Game 1, so there has been no adjustment at all for everyone watching the Game 1 demolition.

Second, everything Milwaukee had success with in Game 1 is very repeatable for the remainder of this series, which is a scary thought. Almost every shot was at the rim or an open 3. On defense, the Bucks don’t have to account for a prolific scorer, inside or out, and they guard the 3 pretty well. Plus, I don’t expect Milwaukee to be complacent since it has never had any real playoff success with this group.

Now all of that being said, I thought -15 was about right in Game 1. Maybe I’m crazy? So while I lean Milwaukee here because maybe my handicap can’t possibly evaluate how bad Detroit is without Blake Griffin, I’d rather just pass, watch hockey and get on with this. — Ken Barkley

Moore: Don’t Overthink Things

The Bucks starters had a Net Rating of 108 in Game 1. That means if they played a whole game’s worth of minutes, they were on pace to beat the Pistons by 108 points.

I’ve just never heard of anything like that, even in tiny minutes. Lay the 15. Lay double it. If the Pistons backdoor, you can hold your head high knowing you were on the right side. Just make sure Blake Griffin’s out first. – Matt Moore

Mears: Why I’m Betting the Under

I just don’t know how this gets any better for the Pistons without Blake Griffin, whose status is murky at best. Here’s the note on him from our FantasyLabs news feed:

Griffin is listed questionable in advance of Wednesday’s game vs. the Bucks as he continues to deal with a sore knee. He sat out of the Pistons’ Game 1 blowout loss with the injury and coach Dwane Casey said he remains day-to-day. Yahoo! Sports’ Vincent Goodwill reported earlier that Griffin is likely to miss the rest of the series, and that’s what we’re going with for now until Griffin shows marked improvement in his recovery.

And, honestly, even with him this isn’t a competitive series. The Bucks blew out the Pistons all four games of the regular season, and they’ll likely do so again for the remaining three of the postseason. In Game 1, the Pistons scored just 78.2 points per 100 possessions; that performance is the zeroth percentile of all games this year.

And how is it supposed to get better? They didn’t get many open shots, and even their contested ones were from terrible areas of the floor. They got to the rim just 25% of the time (awful) and took a 3-pointer on just 27% of their possessions (also awful). Everything was a contested mid-ranger:

Yuck. Still, 15 points in a playoff game is a lot. I’d lean towards the Bucks given everything I just discussed, but I think the better play is the under.

Again, the Pistons aren’t going to score on this awesome defense. And if that’s the case and it’s another blowout, the Bucks starters may not play much. No player got more than 25 minutes in Game 1, and they’ll be cautious again in this one; they have much bigger fish to fry.

Further, early signs are that bettors are expecting a bounce-back offensive performance, which is already pushing the total up. As of Tuesday evening, 88% of the bets are on the over, moving it from 210.5 to 212. In the playoffs, it has been very profitable to fade the public on totals:

If the public keeps pushing this up, I’ll definitely grab it at its highest number at game time and take the under. — Bryan Mears

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.

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