2022 NBA Championship Odds Tracker: Grizzlies Make Big Move

2022 NBA Championship Odds Tracker: Grizzlies Make Big Move article feature image
Credit:

Sean Gardner/Getty Images. Pictured: Ja Morant

2022 NBA Championship Odds

Odds via BetMGM, updated January 13. Learn more about American odds here, and compare NBA futures odds here.

Team Odds Probability
Nets +250 23.17%
Warriors +450 14.75%
Bucks +700 10.14%
Suns +800 9.01%
Lakers +1200 6.24%
Jazz +1200 6.24%
Heat +1400 5.41%
76ers +2500 3.12%
Clippers +2500 3.12%
Nuggets +2500 3.12%
Bulls +2500 3.12%
Grizzlies +3300 2.39%
Hawks +4000 1.98%
Mavericks +4000 1.98%
Celtics +6600 1.21%
Cavaliers +10000 0.80%
Trail Blazers +12500 0.64%
Knicks +15000 0.54%
Hornets +15000 0.54%
Raptors +15000 0.54%
Wizards +20000 0.40%
Timberwolves +20000 0.40%
Pacers +25000 0.32%
Pelicans +50000 0.16%
Kings +50000 0.16%
Spurs +50000 0.16%
Rockets +75000 0.11%
Pistons +100000 0.08%
Thunder +100000 0.08%
Magic +100000 0.08%

BetMGM (and most other shops like DraftKings Sportsbook) have maintained similar pricing on NBA title odds over the last few weeks as teams begin to settle in to the 2021-2022 season.

The Nets are still the favorite to win the title at +250 ($10 wins $25), with the Warriors at +450 ($10 wins $45).

Sportsbooks are generally pretty hesitant to move NBA title odds too much in the beginning of the season, as the league’s best teams are still expected to make the playoffs despite slow starts, and they don’t want to get caught hanging a high number on a team with tons of upside that can win it all.

After the first two months of the season, the Lakers have been a significant faller. They’ve gone from +400 to +1200, a nearly a 10% drop in probability.

The Chicago Bulls have also seen a material change, going from 66-1 before the season, all the way to 25-1 at BetMGM as of Jan. 13.

Here’s how odds have moved so far this season:

Title Updates By Week

January 13: NBA title odds have settled in nearly three months into the season, and the books haven’t wavered on the favorites. The most interesting mover over the holiday break was the Grizzlies, who went from 80-1 to 33-1 as Ja Morant returned from injury and started doing Ja Morant things again.

December 23: The Cavaliers have surprised everyone this season, but the betting market first took Cleveland seriously around mid-December. Cleveland dropped from 250-1 to 100-1, as it sits firmly in the Eastern Conference Playoff Picture.

December 7: Following their historic win streak, the Suns went from 14-1 to 9-1 to win the NBA title, making them the fourth favorite behind the Nets, Bucks and Warriors.

November 22: The Lakers continue to drop, moving from +650 to +900 this week. L.A. opened as the second favorite behind the Nets but we have enough of a sample size to see this team did not deserve that spot.

November 16: The Warriors had a down season in 2020-21, so sportsbooks didn’t open them near the top of the board with the Nets. But after a stellar start, they’re creeping into that second tier at +750.

November 10: The Heat are beginning to establish themselves as a contender in the Eastern Conference, going from 18-1 to 12-1 over the last week. Behind the Bucks and Nets, there’s really not an established third contender.

November 2: Not a ton to report this week. The Warriors got a little bump and the Lakers fell at their expense.

October 25: The Bulls have been one of the best stories of the very young NBA season, moving from 66-1 preseason to 40-1 after a 4-0 start.

Who Is the 2022 NBA Title Favorite?

Let’s dive into each key contender below:

1. Nets (+250)

At their best, the Nets are probably the best team in the league thanks to a trio of superstars in Kevin Durant, James Harden and Kyrie Irving. They could have won the NBA championship last year but lost to the eventual winner Milwaukee in seven games, and the seventh came down to the final shot.

The Eastern Conference isn’t as deep as the West, so the Nets could have an easier time getting through the earlier stages of the postseason than the Lakers or Warriors, for instance.

2. Warriors (+450)

The Warriors have the league’s best record and are playing incredible defense. Sportsbooks have responded by making them the second favorite. And Klay Thompson is is back after missing more than two years with a torn Achilles.

After a down season, this is the Warriors team we’re used to seeing — efficient offense adapted to the personnel and state of the NBA at that time.

3. Bucks (+700)

The defending NBA champions didn’t open as the favorite. You could get them at a better price than you could have over the last two seasons.

Milwaukee’s odds have improved despite playing without so many key pieces in the first month of the season, down to +700 from +900.

4. Suns (+800)

The Suns proved last season’s title run was no fluke by winning 18 straight after a few puzzling losses to start the season. Phoenix is a bit banged up right now, but with the Lakers faltering a bit, there’s no reason the Suns won’t be in the title conversation in the West alongside the Warriors and Jazz.

5. Lakers (+1200)

The Lakers had a down year by their standards thanks to injuries to Anthony Davis and LeBron James but the betting market expected a big bounceback in 2021-2022. That hasn’t happened yet — Los Angeles is struggling to find its stride with LeBron James just now returning and Russell Westbrook running the offense. Their NBA title odds continue to fall incrementally by the week, though they’ve settled in the 12-1 range.

6. Jazz (+1200)

The Jazz finished with the best regular-season record in the NBA last year but fell to the Clippers in six games. The floor is really high for this team, and you’d expected them to be among the top 5-7 betting choices all year.

7. Heat (+1400)

The 2020 NBA runner-up seems to be back on track and is one of the earlier movers on the title odds board. Miami has moved from 25-1 to 14-1 at BetMGM in the early part of the season, and reached as high as 12-1. Outside of the Nets and Bucks, there’s no clear No. 3 in the conference as the Sixers and Celtics limp along.

8. 76ers (+2500)

If the Sixers do break through for their first title since 1983, they’ll likely do it without Ben Simmons. Their NBA futures odds dropped from +1600 to +2000 over the first week of the season, and still at that same price at BetMGM. Philly is banged up and the next few weeks might be a good time to buy if you believe in this team.

9. Clippers (+2500)

There’s a chance the Clippers could be without Paul George and Kawhi Leonard for the rest of the season. L.A. got up to 16-1 before George’s injury, and dropped back to 25-1.

10. Nuggets (+2500)

The Nuggets will miss star guard Jamal Murray in the early part of the season but have a great core that will keep their floor high. Nikola Jokic continues to play at an MVP level.

11. Bulls (+2500)

The Bulls are on a trajectory that a lot of NBA championship futures bettors love.

  • Stockpile talent and assets
  • Young player takes a major step forward
  • Put veteran pieces around him the next offseason
  • ….Profit?

And after a hot start, books have had no choice but to adjust. Chicago has gone from 66-1 preseason to 25-1, with a few stops in between.

The Bulls are still a longshot to win an NBA championship this year, but an NBA playoff appearance is very much in the cards.

12. Grizzlies (+3300)

The Grizzlies will need to take a big step forward to guarantee an NBA playoff spot. And then go win four series against the league’s best teams. As fun as Ja Morant is, this team is still a little bit away from being a title contender.

13. Hawks (+4000)

The Hawks broke through with an Eastern Conference Finals appearance last season, but the betting market sees that result as a bit fluky. They’re the fifth or sixth-best team in the East, based on these NBA championship odds.

14. Mavericks (+4000)

Are the Mavericks back? The futures market doesn’t seem to think so, as Dallas remains at 40-1 following a sluggish start.

15. Celtics (+6600)

The Celtics may draw some betting interest because of the price and the perceived upside. Though the team looks much different now, Boston has made the Eastern Conference Finals in three of the last five years.

16. Cavaliers (+10000)

The Cavs have a budding star in rookie Evan Mobley and are better than a handful of teams in the NBA, but still a longshot to even make the playoffs despite a hot start.

17. Trail Blazers (+12500)

The Blazers have dropped from 66-1 to 125-1 after a rocky start to the season in which Damian Lillard is shooting at the worst rates of his career. Lillard is now banged up, and Portland’s odds keep falling.

18. Knicks (+15000)

The Knicks continue to find ways to win behind a high-effort, seasoned group, but are still not considered much of a title threat. They got to 80-1 after a strong start and have fallen back to 150-1 now.

19. Hornets (+15000)

The Hornets have gotten some buzz as a team that can take another step forward after making the playoffs for the first time since 2015-16 last year. But they’re still a ways away from an NBA championship.

20. Raptors (+15000)

The Raptors shipped Lowry to Miami and much of their core from the 2019 title team is gone. The rebuild is on here, too, but Nick Nurse has this team playing hard and has been somewhat competitive through the first month.

21. Wizards (+20000)

The Wizards have been the NBA’s biggest surprise so far. Their NBA championship odds have ping ponged around a bit between 100-1 and 150-1 in the early part of the season.

22. Timberwolves (+20000)

The T’Wolves are under new ownership. That’s good news. Minnesota has looked scrappy at times, and Anthony Edwards looks like a star in the making

23. Pacers (+25000)

The Pacers started strong last season but sputtered down the stretch and don’t factor into the title hunt much.

24. Pelicans (+50000)

The Pelicans are among the worst teams in the NBA right now and are already out of the NBA title picture.

25. Kings (+50000)

The Kings might be better than teams listed above them on this list, but remember, we’re trying to win an NBA title here, not finish above a win total or make the postseason. Sacramento plays in a division with the Lakers, Clippers, Warriors and Suns.

26. Spurs (+50000)

The Spurs’ first rebuild in decades appears to be underway, with DeMar DeRozan off to Chicago. The Spurs have loads of cap space and will likely wait until one of the next two summers to make a free agent splash, or stockpile assets and build from within.

27. Rockets (+75000)

The Rockets entered last season 25-1 to win the title, then dropped, and dropped, and dropped. Now they’re in full rebuild mode at 750-1 to win the title, despite a six-game winning streak.

28. Pistons (+100000)

The Pistons have the No. 1 pick, Cade Cunningham, to look forward to, but not much hope for a postseason berth or title this year.

29. Thunder (+100000)

The Thunder hope that their stockpile of assets turns into an NBA title one day, but it won’t be this season.

30. Magic (+100000)

The Magic shipped everyone out at the trade deadline and will attempt to build around a young core that includes Jalen Suggs, Markelle Fultz, Cole Anthony and Wendell Carter Jr.

NBA Title Odds FAQ

Who has the best odds to win the NBA Finals 2022?

The Nets, followed by the Warriors, Bucks and Suns, have the best chance to win the NBA Finals this year.

How do NBA odds work?

If you’re confused about all this, read up on a few of these educational pieces:

How can you bet on the NBA Finals?

If you’re in a legal betting state, it’s easy to get started betting on the NBA. See where your state stands with betting legalization.

Previous NBA Title Winners

Year Champion
2021 Milwaukee Bucks
2020 Los Angeles Lakers
2019 Toronto Raptors
2018 Golden State Warriors
2017 Golden State Warriors
2016 Cleveland Cavaliers
2015 Golden State Warriors
2014 San Antonio Spurs
2013 Miami Heat
2012 Miami Heat
2011 Dallas Mavericks
2010 Los Angeles Lakers
2009 Los Angeles Lakers
2008 Boston Celtics
2007 San Antonio Spurs
2006 Miami Heat
2005 San Antonio Spurs
2004 Detroit Pistons
2003 San Antonio Spurs
2002 Los Angeles Lakers
2001 Los Angeles Lakers
2000 Los Angeles Lakers

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