Fading the Nets Under Steve Nash Was Incredibly Profitable
Dustin Satloff/Getty. Pictured: Steve Nash.
Steve Nash was finally fired after a rocky tenure with the Brooklyn Nets in which he went a dismal 35-57-2 against the spread (ATS).
At home, he was even worse, posting a record of 11-38 (22%), which tracks with general betting intuitions. The Nets had lofty expectations all year and never lived up to them.
They had been conference favorites even as late as March — when a No. 6 seed or worse was all but guaranteed — and even maintained their status as title favorites as late as Jan. 2022.
But the team never got better. Fading the Nets in the marketplace during the Nash era was one of the most profitable general truths NBA bettors could have engaged in.
A $100 per game bettor would be up $2,354 by simply betting on the road team’s spread when they played at the Barclays Center. That’s an absurd 47% ROI. Compare that to the average annual return of the S&P 500, which has hovered at about 8% for over a century. For reference, that index is down roughly 20% year-to-date.
Overall, simply fading the Nets against the spread — no matter home or away, for every game — was lucrative as well. $100 per game bettors won 60.2% of the time and would have made a profit of $1,340 fading the Nets every single game.
That’s an ROI of 15%, about how much Bitcoin is up since Thanksgiving Day 2020.
Moneyline bettors were a little less lucrative but still profitable. A $100 bettor that exclusively bet on the road team at the Barclays Center during the Nash era would have won $1,900 over the last two seasons for a 41.2% ROI.
A $100 bettor for every Nets opponent since 2021 would have netted $1,050 for an 11.7% ROI.