Memphis Grizzlies vs. Denver Nuggets Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions: Tough Scheduling Spot for Memphis

NBA Odds: Grizzlies vs. Nuggets

The Memphis Grizzlies wrap up their seven-game road trip on Monday night when they face off against the Denver Nuggets. The Grizzlies are off consecutive impressive wins against the Portland Trail Blazers as road underdogs.

The Denver Nuggets have won five out of six games since they lost Jamal Murray for the season to a torn ACL. However, they have failed to cover the spread in four straight games after they allowed the Houston Rockets to get a back-door cover in the previous game during garbage time.

These two teams faced each other last Monday, Apr. 19, when Denver squeaked by with a two-point victory in double overtime. The Nuggets have now won six of their previous seven head-to-head matchups with the Grizzlies.

Even though the Grizzlies have been strong against the spread and may be out for revenge, the impact on fatigue from a seven-game road trip and the second game of back-to-back in the altitude of Denver cannot be ignored. Therefore, I see value in the Nuggets continuing their recent dominance of the Grizzlies and getting the win and cover on Monday evening.

Grizzlies Outperforming Expectations

The scrappy Grizzlies continue to outperform market expectations, covering the spread in 18 of their last 23 games. The Grizzlies have been happy to welcome Jaren Jackson Jr. back to the lineup. He brings a dynamic skill set as a big man who can shoot 3-pointers and defend the paint.

He is a great complement to Jonas Valanciunas in the frontcourt, and the pairing should frighten opposing defenses. However, this will be the first game in which both players with be on the court at the same time, so I anticipate it could throw off the chemistry for the Grizzlies.

The Grizzlies' defense has been poor as of late, ranking 22nd in Defensive Rating (114.8) in their previous five games, per NBA Advanced Stats. This will be a difficult task against the Nuggets' third highest-ranked Offensive Rating (116.7) in the league.

Teams on their seventh (and final) game of a road trip have gone 37-56-1 (39.8%) ATS in the history of the Sports Data Query Language database, which dates back to the 1995-1996 season.

Digging even deeper, teams in this same situation on the second game of a back-to-back are 11-24-1 (34.1%) ATS. This situation has not been favorable to teams in the past as they have tired legs from the long road trip and are off two close, hard-fought victories against the Trail Blazers.

Away underdogs that are off two consecutive wins as away underdogs have gone 82-129-4 (38.9%). This is another situational spot active on the Grizzlies that indicates a letdown spot after two outright wins as underdogs.

Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets have still been able to maintain their spot as the 4th seed in the Western Conference, even without the presence of their star guard Murray. There are still no shortage of scorers on Denver, with Jokic leading the way in a historic campaign and averaging nearly a triple-double for the season.

Jokic presents an interesting matchup for the Valanciunas as his ability to shoot the 3-pointer and operate from the of the key will force the Grizzlies' big man to come out of his comfort zone. He continues to make his case for Most Valuable Player and scored 47 points against the Grizzlies the last time around, so I expect him to continue his success on Monday.

Michael Porter Jr. has been filling in the gap on the offensive side with Murray injured. He has been on a tear in April, averaging 23.1 points per game on 55.6% from the field and 42.9% from the 3-point line. He certainly has that irrational confidence going for him and I expect him to keep it rolling against a tired Grizzlies team.

Will Barton has been ruled out indefinitely after suffering an injury to the Warriors. While that will definitely hurt the Nuggets, it is common to see the "next man up" mentality give these teams some motivation and a short-term boost in their production.

Elite teams (defined as team with 60% win percentage or greater) that are home favorites with rest versus a team with no rest has gone 114-81 (58.5%) ATS since the 2017-2018 season, per the SDQL database. This is active on the Nuggets and these great teams tend to take care of business at home when they have that rest disparity against their opponent.

Grizzlies-Nuggets Pick

It is tough to fade the Grizzlies amidst their hot streak against the spread, but their brutal travel schedule is too much to overlook against the potent offensive of the Denver Nuggets. Although there are no news thus far, I would not be surprised if the Grizzlies sat some players as they have battled injuries of their own with Valanciunas, Jackson, De'Anthony Melton and Brandon Clarke all missing games over the last several weeks.

The current line is at -4.5. I could see money coming in on the Grizzlies as many public bettors will want to continue to ride the wave of this hot Grizzlies team. Either way, I expect the Nuggets to cover the current spread against the fatigued Grizzlies.

Pick: Nuggets -4.5