How to Determine if FanDuel’s 3×2 NBA Boosts Are +EV

How to Determine if FanDuel’s 3×2 NBA Boosts Are +EV article feature image

(Jesse D. Garrabrant/ Getty Images Contributor)
Pictured: Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson

FanDuel's 3x2 boosts are back to start the 2022-23 NBA season.

For those unfamiliar, FanDuel offers a market on whether or not there will be two 3-pointers scored in the first three minutes of a game. It's not the most straight-forward boost to calculate, so I'll dive into my math here.

On opening night, FanDuel has boosted the 3x2 hitting in both Celtics-76ers and Lakers-Warriors from +330 to +400. It's +EV, which I'll explain below.

FanDuel QuickSlip: Click here to automatically fill your bet slip with this boost before Celtics-76ers tips off!

One thing I will say is that lineups vary (especially season to season) so I like to be conservative on these until we have season data. But the lineups are relatively close to last year's so this is how I am doing it.

Step 1: Get the total possessions each team averaged last regular season and convert it to possessions in 3 minutes. 

  • Sixers/Celtics combined to average: 197.4 possessions or 12.33 per 3 minutes.
  • Lakers/Warriors combined to average: 203 possessions or 12.6875 per 3 minutes

Step 2: Find out how many 3's each team hit per possession.

  • Sixers/Celtics: averaged a 3 on 12.65% of possessions
  • Lakers/Warriors: averaged a 3 on 13.1% of possessions

Step 3: Convert the probabilities to odds, and compare to the boosted line

So now we look at what are the odds on X possessions and hitting in X percent of possessions, what are the odds of hitting 2?

  • Sixers/Celtics: 47.5%
  • Lakers/Warriors: 51%

As we covered in my +EV guide, once you have a probability, it's just like any other boost.

That means the EV here is +18.93%.

FanDuel QuickSlip: Click here to automatically fill your bet slip with this boost before Celtics-76ers tips off!

I considered betting 0.5 units due to the uncertainty of a new season and I am generally conservative with betting these, especially at these odds, but given the size of the EV (and it's not like Stephen Curry/Klay Thompson aren't playing or there is that much turnover on these teams), and the other notes, I am in for the full unit.

Other Notes

  • There is a market for this on FanDuel i just don't like trusting one book's lines. The EV of the boost off of their own lines would be +14.67%
  • I do think this method is a bit conservative, given that teams will usually have their best shooters on the floor to start a game, leading to more makes than we would project over the course of 48 minutes with more bench players involved.

How would you rate this article?

This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Action Network makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.