Monday NBA Player Prop Bets & Picks: Russell Westbrook Goes for Triple-Double Record (May 10)
Scott Taetsch/Getty Images. Pictured: Russell Westbrook
Russell Westbrook can set the all-time NBA record for career triple-doubles tonight against the Indiana Pacers. And there's almost no way you could convince me not to bet on him doing it.
Come on, there was just no way we weren't playing some Westbrook angle tonight with the record on the line.
For those who are new to this article, we'll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I'm playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Russell Westbrook to record a triple-double (-300)
|Wizards at Hawks||+8|
|Time | TV||7:30 p.m. ET | NBA TV|
Westbrook has recorded four straight triple-doubles. During that stretch, he has 89 points, 69 rebounds, and 73 assists. That's 22.3 points, 17.3 rebounds, and 18.3 assists per game, and the craziest part about it all is that we're just taking it in stride at this point.
Westbrook missed a triple-double the game before that by a single rebound. Otherwise he'd have eight straight triple-doubles right now. As is, he has 22 triple-doubles in his last 26 games, and two of those missed by a single assist. Even so, that's a triple-double in 84.6% of all Westbrook games since March 27. It's genuinely absurd, and it's not even surprising anymore.
Bradley Beal is out tonight, but that should only mean even more Russ ball. Westbrook has played eight games without Beal this season. He's averaging 25.5 points, 12.3 rebounds, and 12.9 assists in those games. He recorded a triple-double in six of the eight and missed a seventh by a single rebound.
Look, forget all the numbers. Almost nothing in basketball has been as reliable as a motivated Westbrook over the past half a decade. Westbrook knows he can set the triple-double record tonight. If he knows he can, he's going to do it.
It's patently insane, but I would genuinely give Westbrook at least an 80% chance of getting the triple-double tonight, and that's a lower bound. An 80% chance would imply -400, and we're getting better odds than that. Besides, I want an NBA record-setting ticket on my books.
We project Westbrook at 29.3 points, 12.2 rebounds, and 12.2 assists tonight. He's almost certainly going to be in range of the triple-double record, and if he's in range, he's absolutely going to stat hunt until he gets it.
PointsBet has the best price at -300. I'll honestly play as high as -550. I'd think about higher. Let's make history.
Caris LeVert, over 5.5 assists (+120)
|Pacers at Cavs||-9|
|Time||7:30 p.m. ET|
Malcolm Brogdon is questionable for tonight's game and has missed the last five games, and with Brogdon sidelined, Caris LeVert has become the lead handler on this team. Everything is going through him and Domantas Sabonis right now, and LeVert has thrived in this role in the past in Brooklyn.
LeVert's numbers have gone way up without Brogdon. He's at 27.6 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 6.8 assists per game during this recent stretch, and that's helped by the fact that Indiana's defense has been rough without Myles Turner, leaving the Pacers playing in faster, higher scoring games.
LeVert is a wing but he can effectively run point if needed, and that's what he's doing right now with Brogdon out. He's gone over 5.5 assists in three of these five games without Brogdon and is one dime away from making that four out of five overs, and he's trending up with eight and 12 assists his last two games.
We project LeVert at 6.3 assists tonight and rate this as the top prop on the board in this game, especially at plus juice.
Make sure to watch carefully for Brogdon news, though. Our NBA insiders tool gives Brogdon a 50% chance of playing. LeVert was at just 4.1 assists per game for the Pacers before this recent five-game stretch without Brogdon.
I'll play the over with Brogdon out at plus money or better.
Jarrett Allen, over 10.5 rebounds (+106)
|Pacers at Cavs||+9|
|Time||7:30 p.m. ET|
We just played Jarrett Allen's rebounds for an easy over on Friday, and we're going back to the well for another.
Allen is a monster rebounder, when he actually gets enough minutes on the court to do so. He averaged 9.6 rebounds per game last season for Brooklyn and has been over that number this season in both his Nets games and his Cavs games. He's at 9.8 RPG thus far with the Cavs.
And he's done all that despite not even averaging 30 minutes a game. Allen grabs a rebound every 3.1 minutes on the court. He's a huge leaper with a giant wingspan and reach, and he high-points rebounds well and has been a monster on the offensive glass.
It took Allen awhile to get his numbers flowing in Cleveland, mostly because the Cavs were still playing Andre Drummond. That's not a problem anymore. Since moving Allen to full-time minutes, Allen has averaged 13.4 points and 10.9 rebounds in 32.1 minutes per game. He's gone over 10.5 boards in 18 of 33 games since that move full time into the starting lineup. That hits our over 55% of the time, and we are still getting plus money.
Even better that this game against the Pacers should be fast paced and high scoring, and Indiana is one of the worst rebounding teams in the league. The Pacers rank dead last in defensive rebounding percentage. Allen could put up a monster number tonight — but we only need 11.
We project him at 12.4 rebounds, and I can't believe we're getting plus odds here. I'd play as low as -115.