NBA Predictions, Picks & Betting Odds (Thursday, Jan. 16): How to Bet Nuggets vs. Warriors With 3 Starters Out
Photo credit: Garrett Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Paul Millsap, Gary Harris and Jamal Murray
This NBA season, I’m trying something new. I’m going to write a daily piece that highlights everything bettors and DFS players need to know for that night’s slate. For more on what to expect, read the inaugural piece.
Yesterday I finished 2-1 for +0.5 units. While I don’t want to get sucked into the past, I think it’s worth reviewing things each day.
The best way to do that is to look at closing line value (CLV), which is just measuring whether the line you bet moved for or against you by closing.
- I bet Raptors +1 and it closed at Raptors +1 (won)
- I bet Raptors (1Q) +0.5 and it closed at Raptors -0.5 (won)
- I bet Nets +7 and it closed at Nets +6.5 (lost)
Well, the NBA is super fun:
With 3:51 left in the game, it was tied at 104-104 and the Nets were at 96% to cover the seven-point line I got them at. But then they scored just two more points for the rest of game, ultimately losing by nine. Ugh.
Thankfully I still had a positive day due to the Raptors game, as I was high on them with their main guys in Pascal Siakam and Marc Gasol back in action. They put up 130 points, and my favorite bet of the day — Raps to cover +0.5 in the first quarter — easily covered by 13 points. We’ll keep grinding.
Anyway, let’s dive into today’s slate and find some angles.
Note: For updates, see the chat at the bottom of this post.
- Overall: 169-140-2
- Spreads: 65-59-2
- Totals: 59-52
- Moneylines: 16-7
- Props: 29-22
Odds as of Thursday afternoon and via FanDuel, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
Betting Odds and Analysis
- 7:30 p.m. ET: Phoenix Suns (-3) at New York Knicks, 226
- 8 p.m. ET: Utah Jazz (-4.5) at New Orleans Pelicans, 225.5
- 8 p.m. ET: Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks (-9.5), 223
- 10:30 p.m. ET: Denver Nuggets (-5) at Golden State Warriors, 213
- 10:30 p.m. ET: Orlando Magic at LA Clippers (-11.5), 217.5
Let’s run through a couple angles I’m eyeing.
Nuggets at Warriors
The Nuggets are going to be down three starters tonight, with Paul Millsap, Gary Harris and Jamal Murray all missing for a variety of injuries.