NBA Odds & Picks for Thursday: Betting & DFS Values, Props, Injuries, More

This NBA season, I'm trying something new. I'm going to write a daily piece that highlights everything bettors and DFS players need to know for the upcoming night's slate. For more information on what to expect, read the introduction on Tuesday's piece.

Yesterday, I finished 12-4 for +0.42 units, largely thanks to success on props. While I don't want to get sucked into the past, I think it's worth reviewing things each day.

The best way to do that is to look at closing line value (CLV), which is just measuring whether the line you bet moved for or against you by closing.

• I bet the Suns +1.5 and it closed at +1
• I bet the Thunder +9 and it closed at +9
• I bet Knicks/Spursover 214 and it closed at 214.5
• I bet Spurs-10 and it closed at -10.5
• I bet Grizzlies+8 and it closed at +6.5
• I bet Pacers -6.5 and it closed at -7.5

Not all of those won, but in general if I'm consistently getting a better number than the efficient closing line, I think that's a good sign. I'll go over this each day in this piece for the sake of transparency; if I have a bad day, I have no problem admitting it. We're learning together this season.

It's also worth examining why/how a team covered. For example, I lost the Spurs spread bet — it finished at nine mostly thanks to a meaningless foul by LaMarcus Aldridge with 15 seconds left — but it was a coin flip that could've gone either way down the stretch.

The Suns bet was more interesting. They easily covered the +1.5 spread, but the game should not have been as lopsided as it was. The Kings' best player, De'Aaron Fox, picked up his fourth foul early in the third quarter.

Sacramento was winning at the time, but he sat out the rest of the third and the Suns went on a quick 27-12 run.

It's one of the dumbest things that is seemingly commonplace in coaching: The Kings took him out so they could bring him back when they were down 20 as opposed to letting a professional, smart player manage his fouls and a lead.

Fox was terrible last night, so perhaps it wouldn't have mattered anyway. But the Kings coaching staff essentially punted that game. Someone tweeted at me a smart way of summing it up: "The old 'let's foul out our own guy before the refs can' philosophy." Bingo.

Anyway, the Suns looked like world-beaters and the Kings looked terrible, but I don't think that's indicative of future play. It's important to tease out those situations, as they could lead to value.

We have a fun, shorter slate today, so let's dive in.

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Note: For updates, see the chat at the bottom of this post.

Betting Odds and Analysis

• 7 p.m. ET:  Atlanta Hawks at Detroit Pistons (-1.5), 222
• 8 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Bucks at Houston Rockets (-1.5), 230.5
• 10:30 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Clippers (-1) at Golden State Warriors, 227

(Odds via PointsBet — claim your 200% deposit match, an exclusive promotion for Action Network users)

Let's hit on the games I've bet and where I think edges currently exist.

Hawks +1 vs. Pistons: It's Day 3 of the NBA season, and the Pistons are already somehow on a back-to-back. They impressed last night, not only by covering the +7.5 spread on the road but beating the Pacers outright by nine points.

Looking more at that game, however, the Pistons just shot the mess out of the ball. They finished 52% from the field overall and 45% from beyond the arc. They weren't super optimized in terms of their shots, taking just 40% of their shots at the rim (64th percentile) and 26% from deep (20th percentile), but they were excellent on those looks and drained a ton of long mid-rangers.

I'm not sure that'll continue tonight against the upstart Hawks, who have De'Andre Hunter to throw out Luke Kennard, the Pistons' best playmaker last night. Further, the Pistons exhausted themselves: Andre Drummond put up a 32-23 line with three steals and four blocks across 41 minutes of action. He did work, but it's a short turnaround with travel.

With the public potentially overrating the Pistons without Blake Griffin, who is out yet again tonight (and will be for a while), I'll buy the Hawks here. The Pistons are banged up outside of Griffin as well, with Markieff Morris questionable nursing multiple ailments and Reggie Jackson dealing with a tight lower back. That's not great on a quick back-to-back with travel involved.

My colleague John Ewing had an intriguing stat I'll leave you with on this game: Teams playing their first game against an opponent that has already played have gone 37-28-1 (56.9%) ATS since 2005. Underdogs in this scenario are an even better 22-12-1 (64.7%) ATS.

Clippers -1 vs. Warriors: I'm just selling the Warriors early on; we'll see how it goes. They obviously have Stephen Curry, who is a superstar among superstars. But man, the rest of this roster terrible.

Last week they waived their only true small forward, Alfonzo McKinnie, and now they'll start in the backcourt three iffy defenders in Curry, D'Angelo Russell and Glenn Robinson III.

Draymond Green and Kevon Looney will likely round out the starting unit. Who exactly is guarding Kawhi Leonard (and Paul George when he returns later in the year)? It almost has to be Draymond, who can probably do a decent job, but that takes him away from what makes him so valuable in this league: his help defense.

Again, Draymond is a fine 1-on-1 defender, but it's his help defense that makes him a generational defender. He's able to control the defense, guard multiple guys at once and use his brilliant basketball IQ to wreak havoc. Putting him directly on Kawhi is somewhat wasting him, and I'm very worried about the rest of the defense as a result. The help defense should be bad.

Offensively, the Warriors should be fine: Having Steph, Draymond and Russell on the floor together is a recipe for success. But the perhaps historically bad bench unit — especially when LA's is excellent — combined with the defensive concerns makes me lean toward the Clippers. They're more than 3-4 points better than the Warriors, in my opinion.

Projected Starting Lineups and Injury News

Lineups…

• Atlanta Hawks: Trae Young – Cam Reddish – De’Andre Hunter – John Collins – Alex Len
• Detroit Pistons: Reggie Jackson – Bruce Brown – Tony Snell – Markieff Morris – Andre Drummond
• Golden State Warriors: Stephen Curry – D’Angelo Russell – Glenn Robinson III – Draymond Green – Kevon Looney
• Houston Rockets: Russell Westbrook – James Harden – Danuel House – PJ Tucker – Clint Capela
• Los Angeles Clippers: Patrick Beverley – Landry Shamet – Kawhi Leonard – Patrick Patterson – Ivica Zubac
• Milwaukee Bucks: Eric Bledsoe – Wesley Matthews – Khris Middleton – Giannis Antetokounmpo – Brook Lopez

And injury news…

• Atlanta Hawks: Chandler Parsons (knees) and Allen Crabbe (knee) are out. Kevin Huerter (knee) will play around 15 minutes off the bench.
• Detroit Pistons: Blake Griffin (hamstring, knee) is out. Markieff Morris (back, hand) is questionable. Reggie Jackson (back) is probable.
• Golden State Warriors: Alec Burks (ankle) is out. Marquese Chriss (toe) is probable. Kevon Looney (hamstring) is not on the injury report.
• Houston Rockets: Nene (adductor) and Gerald Green (foot) are out. Austin Rivers (shoulder) and Russell Westbrook (finger) are not on the injury report.
• Los Angeles Clippers: Paul George (shoulder) and Rodney McGruder (ankle) are out.
• Milwaukee Bucks: Eric Bledsoe (rib) will start.

There's no major injury news we're still waiting for, and there are no big changes to any rotations. Griffin will remain out until early November at the earliest. George is still rehabbing. The other two big names, Russell Westbrook and Eric Bledsoe, are both good to go for that huge matchup.

The Warriors have a bit more depth than perhaps expected a week ago, as it looks like both Chriss and Looney will play; Burks is out after being listed as probable yesterday. Still, this roster needs all the bodies it can get.

One minor note is that Hawks sharpshooter Kevin Huerter is going to be limited with a knee injury. He will play, but they're going to be cautious with him and play him just 15 minutes off the bench. Rookie Cam Reddish is going to get the spot start, and while he'll likely be somewhat popular in DFS, I'd be cautious with too much exposure.

Playing off the bench vs. starting is a somewhat overrated distinction in DFS, especially if the change doesn't wholesale affect minute projections. Players who start get to play with superior teammates, but they also play against superior opponents.

And for a rookie who I honestly don't think is very good, that's concerning. In general this season for DFS, I'm trying to do better about playing guys just because of their "values"; bad players are bad players, and I'm not a huge Reddish fan. I hope he proves me wrong.

Player Props

I've already bet five props using our FantasyLabs player props tool. Follow me in the Action Network app to see my bets (or go to the bottom of the article), but the more important thing is the tool, which measures our projections for every player vs. current odds in the market and highlights the biggest edges for you.

Player props are an inefficient market, which allows casual bettors (limits are low, so pro bettors aren't incentivized to prioritize them) to grab very +EV bets. That said, the lines move quickly. Our props tool is set up so you can always see whether there's an edge even at the updated numbers throughout the day.

It's one of my favorite tools we offer and should be one of your bookmarked pages if you like making a few extra bucks.

One prop I've bet already is De'Andre Hunter's rebounding over. I think this line is underrating his current role on the team: The Hawks drafted him as an NBA-ready wing defender to pair next to Trae Young, John Collins and Kevin Huerter. He'll be tasked to guard the opposition's best player, which means he should approach 30 minutes from Game 1.

He's still raw offensively, and his points prop is more in line with our projections, but I think there's rebounding upside here.

Again, props are a nice edge to add to your betting portfolio. Last year, props with a 10/10 rating won at a 60.31% rate. And that was against the closing line, which you can very often beat by using our props tool, which again measures our projections against lines in real time.

DFS Values and Strategy

What an opening big slate of DFS. There we huge scores from some of the studs, including Karl-Anthony Towns, Kyrie Irving and Andre Drummond. A bunch of the value plays came through as well, which led to massive scores around the industry.

Tonight's slate is smaller, although I think it's fairly straightforward for cash games. Andre Drummond in his current role — pretty much the only big man the Pistons want to play — is way underpriced.

He put up 78.25 DraftKings points last night after a 32-23 line with three steals and four blocks. At $8,300 against a likely terrible Hawks defense and a sloppy offense, he's a no-brainer play today. Don't overthink it.

After that, it gets tricky. Giannis Antetokounmpo is always a stud to buy, especially since he's just $10,300 in a potentially offensive-filled affair. But James Harden and Curry are both below $10K.

When we think of "value plays," we usually think of bargain bin players. But today the guys with the highest Projected Plus/Minus marks are all of the high-priced guys:

That will make for interesting cash games but fun tournaments. There are also a couple notable values among low-priced players, such as Chriss, DeAndre Bembry and Robinson III. Montrezl Harrell is in the mid-tier, but is way underpriced, especially since he showed Tuesday that his minutes are much safer than Ivica Zubac's.

Should be a fun night! For more DFS analysis, read today's breakdown on FantasyLabs.

Quarter Betting Strategy

Over the last year or so, I've enjoyed better quarter spreads and totals. The reason they can provide an edge is that oftentimes it's just 25% of the full-game spread. If a team is an eight-point favorite, they're usually just two-point favorites in each quarter. That's not always true of course, but it largely is.

That means teams who are set up to really excel in certain parts of the game may be over or undervalued in a specific quarter. The best example was the Warriors' "Third Quarter of Death" when they had Klay Thompson, Kevin Durant and Andre Iguodala with their current stars. Those guys flipped the switch after halftime and eviscerated teams in that quarter.

One edge this year might be with the second quarter of Warriors' games. As I mentioned above, I think this bench is incredibly bad. Omari Spellman, Jacob Evans, Jordan Poole, Willie Cauley-Stein, Marquese Chriss — I'm not high on any of those players long-term. And short-term, too, as they'll have to battle against the likes of Lou Williams and Harrell, two of the favorites for Sixth Man of the Year.

The Warriors will be competitive when the starters are in, but I think they could get worked by opposing bench units. It remains to be seen how they stagger their stars, so maybe wait a game or two to get a feel for Steve Kerr's rotations — will he play Russell with the second unit more than expected? — but if it's more hockey-style than staggering, that second quarter is going to be rough for the Warriors.

We'll revisit this situation and the league at large in a week or so, but keep quarter spreads/totals in mind. They can be a valuable addition to your betting portfolio.

My Bets Currently

Check out our player props tool to see the props that still have value if the odds below have shifted.

• Hawks +1 (I obviously like it at the current number of +1.5)
• Clippers -1 (I would bet it to -2)
• Andre Drummond under 2.5 assists (-125)
• De'Andre Hunter over 3.5 rebounds (-125)
• Khris Middleton over 3.5 assists (-155)
• D'Angelo Russell over 6.5 assists (-140)
• Draymond Green under 12.5 points (-125)

[In New Jersey? Bet the games above now at PointsBet]

Updates and Live Chat

I will put updated thoughts below, whether they're about line movement, injury news, etc. You can also ask questions, which I'll answer as quickly as I can.