Wednesday NBA Predictions, Picks & Betting Odds (Dec. 11): What’s Wrong with the Utah Jazz?

This NBA season, I'm trying something new. I'm going to write a daily piece that highlights everything bettors and DFS players need to know for that night's slate. For more on what to expect, read the inaugural piece.

On Monday I finished 1-1 for -0.05 units. While I don't want to get sucked into the past, I think it's worth reviewing things each day.

The best way to do that is to look at closing line value (CLV), which is just measuring whether the line you bet moved for or against you by closing.

• I bet Bulls +6 and it closed at Bulls +6 (won)
• I bet Pacers +1 and it closed at Pacers -3 (lost)

I took the day off from the manifesto yesterday for travel, but let's quickly review Monday's picks. The Bulls are always terrifying to bet on, but I took the points at home when it was announced Fred VanVleet was out.

The line didn't budge at all and it closed where I bet it, so it was probably a fine bet — neutral EV at best (me disagreeing on VanVleet's value).

The Pacers game I got four whole points of CLV, but actually lost that bet, as the Clips without Kawhi Leonard dominated on the road, ultimately winning by 11 points.

This is a prime example of not solely using results, especially within a small sample, to measure betting success. I won the bet I likely had a little edge on, but lost the won that theoretically was highly +EV.

If we believe the market is quite efficient, spreads in which I beat the closing number by four points should win much much more often than ones that close at the same mark.

Anyway, enough on Monday's games; let's get to today's 11-game slate and find some angles.

Note: For updates, see the chat at the bottom of this post.

YTD Record:

• Overall: 126-110-1
• Spreads: 45-46-1
• Totals: 38-36
• Moneylines: 9-6
• Props: 29-22

Betting Odds and Analysis

• 7 p.m. ET: LA Clippers (-2.5) at Toronto Raptors, 221.5
• 7 p.m. ET: LA Lakers (-8.5) at Orlando Magic, 212
• 7 p.m. ET: Boston Celtics (-1) at Indiana Pacers, 209.5
• 7 p.m. ET: Houston Rockets (-11.5) at Cleveland Cavaliers, 229
• 7:30 p.m. ET: Charlotte Hornets at Brooklyn Nets (-10), 216.5
• 8 p.m. ET: Atlanta Hawks at Chicago Bulls (-5.5), 221
• 8 p.m. ET: Utah Jazz (-1.5) at Minnesota Timberwolves, 222.5
• 9 p.m. ET: Memphis Grizzlies at Phoenix Suns (-7), 231
• 9:30 p.m. ET: New Orleans Pelicans at Milwaukee Bucks (-9.5), 232
• 10 p.m. ET: OKC Thunder at Sacramento Kings (-1.5), 208
• 10:30 p.m. ET: New York Knicks at Golden State Warriors (-5), 211

Let's run through a couple angles I'm eyeing.

Jazz at Wolves

I brought up whether it was time to panic on the Jazz about a week and a half ago, and I was told no (I disagreed). It's time now, though, right?

The Jazz have now dropped six of their last eight, and the two wins both came against the Grizzlies, which probably shouldn't even count. Sure, the losses were to really good teams, including the Lakers, Sixers, Raptors and Bucks, to name a few, but it's not like they were competitive in those. They lost to the Bucks by four, but the other five losses were all by nine points or more. Most of them were blowouts.

Looking under the hood, things are terrible right now. On the season, the Jazz have the 23rd-ranked offense. They've been getting to the line well, but that's about where the praise ends.

Their shot profile is terrible, they can't make anything anyway, they turn it over a ton and they rarely grab rebounds. It's hard to find a case for optimism with that unit. They are literally the worst halfcourt offense in the entire league.

Defensively, they're still fine, ranking 11th in efficiency. I'm a little concerned by the fact that a Rudy Gobert led team ranks 24th in opponent shooting at the rim. Further, despite their talent and athletes, they force turnovers very infrequently. Still, it's easy to believe in that talent on that end, and there are some positive indicators despite the negative ones.

Back to the offense, though. You might think they've just been unlucky shooting the ball. But in their last eight games, they're actually fourth in the league in eFG% (62.5%) on wide-open shots. They're getting them at a pretty decent rate and hitting them, but it just hasn't mattered given the rest of their shots, their profile and the other four-factor issues. They're in a hole too deep.

I'm selling them right now until I see any indication they're turning things around offensively, and I think the way to do it is the under in this game.

The concern might be the pace, as the Wolves rank seventh in the league in seconds per play. That said, they have noticeable pace splits:

• Wolves' pace & efficiency ranks off missed FGs: 16th in pace, 27th in efficiency
• Wolves' pace & efficiency ranks off made FGs: fourth in pace, fourth in efficiency

Minnesota can get into a shootout with a team that hits shots. But do we really trust the Jazz to be able to hit shots? I don't.

The under in this game also matches a Pro System I adjusted, which highlights reverse line moves on the under:

Clippers at Raptors

This is a fascinating game for a variety of reasons. Will Pascal Siakam hold his own against the Clippers' superstar wings? How will Kawhi Leonard and Paul George continue to look together and what's their true ceiling? Is Kyle Lowry's comeback throwing off Toronto? What's with the recent downswing?

Let's start with that last question, which I think is perhaps the most important one for today. The Raptors were able to get a win in Chicago on Monday night, but it was by just one point and they put up 93 points as a team. Prior to that, they had dropped three in a row, albeit to good teams in Philly, Houston and Miami.

Still, two of those were at home, and none of the games were within even six points. Lowry was atrocious in his return to the court against Miami, and the Raps have been playing the last couple games without Fred VanVleet, who is questionable to suit up tonight. The on/off metrics around Lowry continue to be terrible: The team has been 9.5 points per 100 possessions worse with him on the floor this season.

But overall, I think the Raptors have had some poor luck lately. In their recent four-game skid, they've posted atrocious shooting numbers, particularly from outside. But according to NBA.com, during that stretch they've gotten wide-open shots on the fourth-most possessions; the issue is they've converted those at a bottom-five rate. On "open" shots, they're posting an ungodly 35.0% eFG% over the last four games. That'll come up.

That doesn't mean necessarily the Raptors are the side to bet tonight, though.

The Clips are obviously crazy talented, and they have some advantages here. Both teams love to get out in transition this year — at top-five rates, in fact — and while the Clips limit those, the Raps absolutely don't. They're allowing those high-value possessions the third-most in the league.

Further, perhaps the Raptors' biggest weakness this season on both sides of the ball is rebounding: They're 27th in offensive rebounding and 29th on defense. That's not ideal against a Clippers team with Montrezl Harrell and huge, athletic wings that is first in the league in offensive rebounding.

The Clips have an inferior shot profile given their love of mid-rangers, but they should also get many more opportunities via the glass. As a result, I don't think there's a lot of value in the spread; it's right where I personally have it.

But I think the over still offers a bit of value, and we wrote earlier today that sharp bettors have been attacking this side, too. With the Raptors likely seeing some shooting luck, the Clips likely hitting the offensive glass for easy buckets and both teams pushing the pace, I'll take the over.

Update: I thought Fred VanVleet might make his return tonight, but he's been ruled out. As a result, I grabbed the Clips at -2.5 and I'm off the over here. The Raps have posted an eFG% 4.7% worse without FVV on the floor, and that's over a larger sample — not just their recent woes.

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Projected Starting Lineups and Injury News

Note: Info as of 3:30 p.m. ET. For up-to-the-minute lineups and news, see FantasyLabs' matchups page.

Projected Lineups

• Atlanta Hawks: Trae Young – Kevin Huerter – De’Andre Hunter – Jabari Parker – Damian Jones
• Boston Celtics: Kemba Walker – Jaylen Brown – Jayson Tatum – Gordon Hayward – Daniel Theis
• Brooklyn Nets: Spencer Dinwiddie – Garrett Temple – Joe Harris – Taurean Prince – Jarrett Allen
• Charlotte Hornets: Devonte’ Graham – Terry Rozier – Miles Bridges – PJ Washington – Bismack Biyombo
• Chicago Bulls: Kris Dunn – Zach LaVine – Tomas Satoransky – Lauri Markkanen – Wendell Carter Jr.
• Cleveland Cavaliers: Darius Garland – Collin Sexton – Cedi Osman – Kevin Love – Tristan Thompson
• Golden State Warriors: D’Angelo Russell – Glenn Robinson III – Eric Paschall – Draymond Green – Willie Cauley-Stein
• Houston Rockets: Russell Westbrook – James Harden – Danuel House – PJ Tucker – Clint Capela
• Indiana Pacers: Malcolm Brogdon – Jeremy Lamb – TJ Warren – Domantas Sabonis – Myles Turner
• LA Clippers: Patrick Beverley – Paul George – Kawhi Leonard – Maurice Harkless – Ivica Zubac
• LA Lakers: LeBron James – Kentavious Caldwell-Pope – Danny Green – Anthony Davis – JaVale McGee
• Memphis Grizzlies: Ja Morant – Dillon Brooks – Jae Crowder – Jaren Jackson Jr. – Jonas Valanciunas
• Milwaukee Bucks: Eric Bledsoe – Donte DiVincenzo – Wes Matthews – Khris Middleton – Brook Lopez
• Minnesota Timberwolves: Andrew Wiggins – Jarrett Culver – Josh Okogie – Robert Covington – Karl-Anthony Towns
• New Orleans Pelicans: Jrue Holiday – JJ Redick – Brandon Ingram – Kenrich Williams – Jahlil Okafor
• New York Knicks: Frank Ntilikina – RJ Barrett – Marcus Morris – Julius Randle – Taj Gibson
• OKC Thunder: Chris Paul – Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – Abdel Nader – Danilo Gallinari – Steven Adams
• Orlando Magic: Markelle Fultz – Evan Fournier – Aaron Gordon – Jonathan Isaac – Khem Birch
• Phoenix Suns: Ricky Rubio – Devin Booker – Kelly Oubre – Dario Saric – Aron Baynes
• Sacramento Kings: Cory Joseph – Buddy Hield – Harrison Barnes – Nemanja Bjelica – Richaun Holmes
• Toronto Raptors: Kyle Lowry – Fred VanVleet – OG Anunoby – Pascal Siakam – Marc Gasol
• Utah Jazz: Donovan Mitchell – Joe Ingles – Bojan Bogdanovic – Royce O’Neale – Rudy Gobert

Injury News

• Atlanta Hawks: Nothing new.
• Boston Celtics: Robert Williams (hip) is out. Marcus Smart (eye) is questionable.
• Brooklyn Nets: Kyrie Irving (shoulder) and Nic Claxton (hamstring) are out. Iman Shumpert (knee) is questionable.
• Charlotte Hornets: Marvin Williams (knee) is out. Nicolas Batum (hand) is doubtful. Malik Monk (finger) is probable.
• Chicago Bulls: Chandler Hutchison (shoulder, illness) is out. Cristiano Felicio (wrist) is out. Denzel Valentine (ankle), Ryan Arcidiacono (elbow), Wendell Carter Jr. (abdomen, thumb, tailbone, illness), Daniel Gafford (finger), Zach LaVine (shoulder, back) and Coby White (hamstring) are available to play.
• Cleveland Cavaliers: Nothing new.
• Golden State Warriors: Eric Paschall (hip) thinks he'll play. Damion Lee (hand) is not on the injury report.
• Houston Rockets: Tyson Chandler (illness) and Austin Rivers (illness) are out.
• Indiana Pacers: JaKarr Sampson (back) is questionable.
• LA Clippers: Landry Shamet (ankle) and Rodney McGruder (hamstring) are out. JaMychal Green (tailbone) is doubtful. Kawhi Leonard (knee) is not on the injury report.
• LA Lakers: Rajon Rondo (hamstring) is questionable. Kyle Kuzma (ankle) is out. Anthony Davis (shoulder) is probable. Avery Bradley (leg) will play.
• Memphis Grizzlies: Grayson Allen (ankle) is out. Kyle Anderson (heel) and Brandon Clarke (oblique) are probable.
• Milwaukee Bucks: Giannis Antetokounmpo (quad) is out.
• Minnesota Timberwolves: Jake Layman (toe) is out. Jeff Teague (ankle) is questionable.
• New Orleans Pelicans: Derrick Favors (personal) is out.
• New York Knicks: Wayne Ellington (Achilles) is out.
• OKC Thunder: Terrance Ferguson (hip) is out. Danilo Gallinari (ankle) is available to play.
• Orlando Magic: Markelle Fultz (illness) is questionable.
• Phoenix Suns: Cam Johnson (hip), Mikal Bridges (finger) and Aron Baynes (calf) are probable.
• Sacramento Kings: Cory Joseph (back), Bogdan Bogdanovic (knee) and Marvin Bagley (thumb) are probable.
• Toronto Raptors: Fred VanVleet (knee) is questionable.
• Utah Jazz: Mike Conley (hamstring) is out.

Player Props

To bet props, I use our FantasyLabs player props tool. Follow me in the Action Network app to see my bets (or go to the bottom of the article), but the more important thing is the tool, which measures our projections for every player vs. current odds in the market and highlights the biggest edges for you.

Player props are an inefficient market, which allows casual bettors (limits are low, so pro bettors aren't incentivized to prioritize them) to grab very +EV bets. That said, the lines move quickly. Our props tool is set up so you can always see whether there's an edge even at the updated numbers throughout the day.

It's one of my favorite tools we offer and should be one of your bookmarked pages if you like making a few extra bucks. Here's a screenshot of what it looks like:

My usual recommendation: Bet unders.

Last season, 10-rated props in our tool hit at a 60.31% rate. But overs hit at a 57.08% rate vs. 66.47% for unders. For 9-rated props, 55.96% of overs were successful bets vs. 62.60% for unders.

As I have noted in the past, unders have more outs: A blowout, an injury, a poor shooting night — all will likely make the under hit. But also, props are less efficient as a market given the low limits, so they're less likely to adjust for things like opponent and pace.

One under I think is intriguing is Marvin Bagley's 15.5-point total.

The exciting Kings sophomore is set to make his return tonight after fracturing his thumb in the season-opener back in October. It'll be great to see him back on the court tonight, although it's unclear just how much they're going to play him right away. We don't even know currently whether he's going to start or come off the bench.

I would wait for that news, but I would guess that they wouldn't extend him too much in his first game back given the franchise's investment in him. If that's the case, then 15.5 points seems a bit too high; in fact, we currently have him projected for single-digit points.

DFS Values and Strategy

The three highest-priced players tonight on DraftKings are James Harden, LeBron James and Anthony Davis, all three of whom are on the road in pace-down spots. Harden can obviously beat up on the Cavs and is always an awesome GPP play, but the Rox are double-digit favorites, and he's pretty darn pricey at $12,900.

Davis has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of the studs, and he's coming off an efficient 50-point outing against the Wolves. It helps that Kyle Kuzma is out, as Davis and Kuz have a poor -0.32 correlation together in terms of fantasy points, but AD also shares a negative correlation with LeBron (even though they both exceeded expectations in the last two games).

Honestly, the studs are always viable in tournaments, and which guy you use will come down to site. Harden is the best value on FanDuel, where his $12,200 salary is less restrictive (and positional scarcity is more important). AD is a better value on DraftKings compared to LeBron but less on FanDuel. The best DFS players are price-sensitive, and today's a good example.

But we're burying the lede here. The most important situation is in Milwaukee, where Giannis Antetokounmpo will sit for the first time this season.

His absence obviously opens up gigantic opportunity for other players, including Eric Bledsoe, Khris Middleton, George Hill, Donte DiVincenzo and Pat Connaughton. Wesley Matthews is a value as well.

The difficult part will be figuring out which Bucks to use, but I'd start by prioritizing Bledsoe, who has led the team in usage when Giannis has been off the court this year.

With those guys, some of whom are at min price, you can easily afford to get up to the studs. With how popular they'll be, that also means it's easy to figure out how to be different in tournaments.

You can pivot down from the high-tier studs and go to like Trae Young, Karl-Anthony Towns, Devin Booker or the Clippers guys, for example. You can also find leverage off the Bucks guys — say, taking Kyle Lowry if Fred VanVleet is out rather than Bledsoe.

It'll be a fun but tough, big slate, so make sure to subscribe to our models for up-to-the-minute player projections and tools.

For more DFS analysis and value plays, check out the FantasyLabs NBA models.

My Bets Currently

Nothing yet.

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