NBA Predictions, Picks & Betting Odds (Wednesday, Jan. 15): Bet on Healthy Raptors?
Photo credit: Gregory Shamus/Getty Images. Pictured: Pascal Siakam
This NBA season, I’m trying something new. I’m going to write a daily piece that highlights everything bettors and DFS players need to know for that night’s slate. For more on what to expect, read the inaugural piece.
Yesterday I finished 1-1 for -0.05 units. While I don’t want to get sucked into the past, I think it’s worth reviewing things each day.
The best way to do that is to look at closing line value (CLV), which is just measuring whether the line you bet moved for or against you by closing.
- I bet Cavs under 105 and it closed at Cavs under 104 (won)
- I bet Cavs-Clippers under 224.5 and it closed at 224 (lost)
I went 1-1 yesterday and thankfully didn’t bet my leans yesterday: Knicks spread and the Rockets-Grizzlies over. I did really like the Grizz yesterday (see the title of the piece), and I likely should’ve been on them to cover.
In the game I did bet, I should’ve been heavier on the team total. I’m actually 7-0 on those this season, and I think they’re easier to handicap. An over/under you have to project both teams to over or underperform, whereas with a team total you’re projecting just one variable.
The Cavs went under their total — and that was the main reason I bet it — but the Clips overperformed more than the Cavs underperformed, ruining that bet.
Anyway, let’s dive into today’s slate and find some angles.
Note: For updates, see the chat at the bottom of this post.
- Overall: 167-139-2
- Spreads: 63-58-2
- Totals: 59-52
- Moneylines: 16-7
- Props: 29-22
Odds as of Wednesday afternoon and via FanDuel, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
Betting Odds and Analysis
- 7 p.m. ET: Detroit Pistons at Boston Celtics (-9.5), 217.5
- 7 p.m. ET: Brooklyn Nets at Philadelphia 76ers (-7.5), 223
- 7:30 p.m. ET: San Antonio Spurs at Miami Heat (-5.5), 222
- 8 p.m. ET: Indiana Pacers (-2.5) at Minnesota Timberwolves, 218.5
- 8 p.m. ET: Washington Wizards at Chicago Bulls (-4), 231.5
- 8 p.m. ET: Toronto Raptors at OKC Thunder (-1.5), 212.5
- 9 p.m. ET: Charlotte Hornets at Denver Nuggets (-11), 210
- 9:30 p.m. ET: Portland Trail Blazers at Houston Rockets (-9), 236
- 10 p.m. ET: Dallas Mavericks (-4) at Sacramento Kings, 228.5
- 10:30 p.m. ET: Orlando Magic at LA Lakers (-10.5), 212
Yikes, what a brutal slate. Still, let’s run through a couple angles I’m eyeing.
Raptors at Thunder
The Thunder have been pretty weird so far this year. Take a look at the performance of their most-used lineups: