Wednesday NBA Odds, Picks (Nov. 6): DFS Strategies, Betting Analysis, Injuries & More

This NBA season, I'm trying something new. I'm going to write a daily piece that highlights everything bettors and DFS players need to know for that night's slate. For more on what to expect, read the inaugural piece.

Yesterday I finished 0-1-1 for -1.1 units. While I don't want to get sucked into the past, I think it's worth reviewing things each day.

The best way to do that is to look at closing line value (CLV), which is just measuring whether the line you bet moved for or against you by closing.

• I bet Celtics -6 and it closed at -6
• I bet Pacers -3.5 and it closed at -2.5

Well, that was a pretty tilting evening. The Celtics were cruising for most of the game and led 113-101 with about four minutes remaining. They went cold from there on out, ultimately winning the game 119-113. It happens.

The Pacers were way more frustrating. They led 92-78 entering the fourth quarter, but the Hornets went on a 24-4 run to start. The game eventually went to overtime with Charlotte winning by two.

Some crazy stats in that one…

Yes, that's right: The Pacers had seven free throw attempts compared to 42 for the Hornets. SEVEN TO FORTY-TWO.

Regarding the negative CLV on this game, I took the risk with Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner questionable. The latter was interesting, as he was actually upgraded yesterday from doubtful to questionable, which I thought was a pretty positive sign.

They ultimately didn't end up playing, but I thought it was a risk worth taking and that the Pacers already had an edge in this matchup.

Alas, we have more games today. This is a long post, so use the jump links below to skip ahead to whatever you're looking for.

Note: For updates, see the chat at the bottom of this post.

Betting Odds and Analysis

• 7 p.m. ET: Washington Wizards at Indiana Pacers (-4), 224.5
• 7 p.m. ET: New York Knicks at Detroit Pistons (-3.5), 206.5
• 7:30 p.m. ET: Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets (-15.5), 231
• 7:30 p.m. ET: Chicago Bulls at Atlanta Hawks (-1), 221
• 7:30 p.m. ET: Sacramento Kings at Toronto Raptors (-7.5), 219
• 8 p.m. ET: Minnesota Timberwolves (-4.5) at Memphis Grizzlies, 226
• 8:30 p.m. ET: Orlando Magic at Dallas Mavericks (-6.5), 207.5
• 9 p.m. ET: Philadelphia 76ers at Utah Jazz (-2), 211
• 10 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Bucks (-5.5) at LA Clippers, 228.5

(Odds via PointsBet — claim your 200% deposit match, an exclusive promotion for Action Network users)

Let's talk about a few edges I'm currently eyeing.

Bulls at Hawks: I know what you're thinking: Oh god, a Bulls game? Hear me out.

This line is a bit weird to me. The Hawks with Trae Young are a better team on a neutral court than these Bulls, which isn't what this line is saying. Both are on a back-to-back, and the Hawks get the home advantage in that scenario, so Hawks -2 just doesn't make a lot of sense.

That said, it's possible Trae is out in this one. He made his return last night following a sprained ankle and led the Hawks to a surprising win over the Spurs. He was a bit limited in minutes (29), but looked good nonetheless. That said, I wouldn't be surprised if the Hawks are extra cautious with him and ultimately let him sit out the second leg of a back-to-back.

In that case, the Bulls will likely move to favorites with Trae and John Collins, who was suspended yesterday for 25 games, out. The Hawks' splits with Trae especially have been stark (in a limited sample): With him, they've posted an Offensive Rating of 110.6, an amazing mark. But without him, they're at a miserable 96.8 mark.

If he plays, he's likely to be capped at around 30 minutes I would guess, but 30 minutes of Trae vs. zero minutes is still a huge swing in expectations — and I'd expect a big swing in the line.

TLDR version: If Trae is out, I like the Bulls and the under. If he's in, I like the Hawks and the over. The dude is that important.

Magic +7.5 at Mavericks: You know what, let's do the Magic thing again.

Orlando remains an anomaly this season. They are above-average in generating wide-open 3-pointers this season, but they're shooting just 29.7% on them — one of the worst marks in the league.

Take a look at their shooters from last year to this season:

• Nikola Vucevic: 36.4% from 3 last season, 19.2% this year
• Jonathan Isaac: 32.3% from 3 last season, 35.7% this year
• Aaron Gordon: 34.9% from 3 last season, 29.2% this year
• Evan Fournier: 34.0% from 3 last season, 30.6% this year
• DJ Augustin: 42.1% from 3 last season, 18.8% this year
• Terrence Ross: 38.3% from 3 last season, 19.0% this year

Of their main players, only Isaac is better than last year — and the rest are drastically below expectations. Augustin has legitimately been one of the best outside shooters in the league the last couple of years, and he's below 20%.

Based on their shot quality, they should have an eFG% of 51%, but they're actually down at 44.51% — an absurd difference. When they've had the lead, it's been even worse: 51% expected eFG%, 42.72% actual eFG%.

Part of predicting sports is finding situations where outcomes do not match expectations based on data. The Magic are the prime example of that this season. Of course, regression doesn't always come immediately; I believe it will come for the Magic, but it may not be tonight. Still, I don't think this is a bad team, they're just playing at their floor.

Further, this is an interesting matchup for them. Luka Doncic is an impossible cover for most teams, mostly because they don't have someone his size who can adequately defend him on the perimeter.  Isaac and  Gordon are at least semi-capable of that job, and last year Luka struggled against them, shooting a combined 11-of-31 against the Magic.

I'll probably continue to go down with this ship given the data. Also, I think given the low total of 209 and why the Magic have underperformed, a spread bet on the Magic is pretty highly correlated with an over bet.

Sixers at Jazz: Let's talk about this game for a moment.

Smart people thought the Jazz this season might take an offensive step forward with the addition of Mike Conley and playing fewer two-big lineups but take a step back defensively due to Derrick Favors' absence. So far, that has not been the case: The Jazz rank 24th in offensive efficiency and first in defense.

Rudy Gobert has been his usual DPOY self, and he's more than managed the absence of Favors. They might regress a little bit, but I think they're likely to be one of the league's best yet again. The offense, though, I think is due to see some improvement.

The Jazz have stark splits: They're 24th in offensive rating, but actually 12th eFG%. They've gotten to the free throw line at a high rate. The main two issues have been offensive rebounding and turnovers. The former may be an issue with their scheme and playing smaller, but I'd be surprised if they didn't see regression in the turnover department.

The issue isn't Donovan Mitchell, who has been brilliant protecting the ball and just in general. The issues have been the other guys.

• Rudy Gobert: 12.1% turnover rate last year, 25.5% this season
• Emmanuel Mudiay: 14.6% turnover rate last year, 21.0% this season
• Royce O'Neale: 16.2% turnover rate last year, 19.5% this season
• Mike Conley: 9.1% turnover rate last year, 18.5% this season
• Ed Davis: 14.6% turnover rate last year, 29.8% this season

Of note, Mudiay and Davis, two of the main culprits, are both out tonight. And the other guys — Gobert, Conley and O'Neale — are smart players who don't project to have rates this high for the remainder of the season. The rest of the offense is there; if they're more disciplined, they'll likely compete for a top-10 offense and defense the rest of the way.

Of course, that is scary against a Sixers defense that has forced turnovers at the third-highest rate this season and generally is elite on that end of the floor. I don't like oversimplifying matchups, but I think it might come down to that battle: If the Jazz can protect the ball, they're undervalued at -2.

Their defense should give the Sixers problems. Philly thrives in transition settings more than halfcourt ones given its shooting limitations: The Sixers are just 22nd in offensive efficiency in the halfcourt but 14th overall. The Jazz have been disciplined on defense, and they've limited transition opportunities at the second-best rate this year.

Of course, the Jazz defense is heavily reliant on Gobert, who has a tough matchup against Joel Embiid. Gobert has historically done fine limiting foul trouble against Embiid, but that's a concern certainly.

All in all, I'm going to look to live bet this one. If the Jazz are more disciplined in their offense and Gobert doesn't get in early foul trouble, I think there could be some value on them around this line.

[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

Projected Starting Lineups and Injury News

Note: Info as of 2:30 p.m. ET. For up-to-the-minute lineups and news, see FantasyLabs' matchups page.

Projected Lineups

• Atlanta Hawks: Trae Young – Cam Reddish – De’Andre Hunter – Jabari Parker – Alex Len
• Chicago Bulls: Tomas Satoransky – Zach LaVine – Otto Porter – Lauri Markkanen – Wendell Carter Jr.
• Dallas Mavericks: Jalen Brunson – Seth Curry – Luka Doncic – Kristaps Porzingis – Dwight Powell
• Detroit Pistons: Bruce Brown – Luke Kennard – Tony Snell – Markieff Morris – Andre Drummond
• Golden State Warriors: D’Angelo Russell – Jordan Poole – Glenn Robinson III – Eric Paschall – Willie Cauley-Stein
• Houston Rockets: Russell Westbrook – James Harden – Danuel House – PJ Tucker – Clint Capela
• Indiana Pacers: Malcolm Brogdon – Jeremy Lamb – TJ Warren – Domantas Sabonis – Myles Turner
• LA Clippers: Patrick Beverley – Landry Shamet – Moe Harkless – Patrick Patterson – Ivica Zubac
• Memphis Grizzlies: Ja Morant – Dillon Brooks – Jae Crowder – Jaren Jackson Jr. – Jonas Valanciunas
• Milwaukee Bucks: Eric Bledsoe – Wesley Matthews – Khris Middleton – Giannis Antetokounmpo – Brook Lopez
• Minnesota Timberwolves: Jeff Teague – Andrew Wiggins – Treveon Graham – Robert Covington – Karl-Anthony Towns
• New York Knicks: Frank Ntilikina – RJ Barrett – Marcus Morris – Julius Randle – Mitchell Robinson
• Orlando Magic: Markelle Fultz – Evan Fournier – Aaron Gordon – Jonathan Isaac – Nikola Vucevic
• Philadelphia 76ers: Ben Simmons – Josh Richardson – Tobias Harris – Al Horford – Joel Embiid
• Sacramento Kings: De’Aaron Fox – Buddy Hield – Harrison Barnes – Nemanja Bjelica – Richaun Holmes
• Toronto Raptors: Kyle Lowry – Fred VanVleet – OG Anunoby – Pascal Siakam – Marc Gasol
• Utah Jazz: Mike Conley – Donovan Mitchell – Bojan Bogdanovic – Jeff Green – Rudy Gobert
• Washington Wizards: Isaiah Thomas – Bradley Beal – Isaac Bonga – Rui Hachimura – Thomas Bryant

Injury News

• Atlanta Hawks: Evan Turner (Achilles) is out. Cam Reddish (shoulder) is probable.
• Chicago Bulls: Nothing new.
• Dallas Mavericks: Maxi Kleber (knee) is questionable.
• Detroit Pistons: Derrick Rose (hamstring) and Tim Frazier (shoulder) are out.
• Golden State Warriors: D’Angelo Russell (ankle) and Draymond Green (finger) are out.
• Houston Rockets: Eric Gordon (hamstring) is out.
• Indiana Pacers: Domantas Sabonis (calf) and Myles Turner (ankle) are questionable. Jeremy Lamb (ankle) is doubtful.
• LA Clippers: Kawhi Leonard (rest) is out.
• Memphis Grizzlies: Grayson Allen (ankle) is out. Jaren Jackson Jr. (knee) says he'll play. Jae Crowder (back) is probable.
• Milwaukee Bucks: Nothing new.
• Minnesota Timberwolves: Shabazz Napier (hamstring) is doubtful. Jordan Bell (shoulder) and Jeff Teague (illness) are questionable.
• New York Knicks: Dennis Smith Jr. (personal) and Elfrid Payton (hamstring) remain out.
• Orlando Magic: Nothing new.
• Philadelphia 76ers: Nothing new.
• Sacramento Kings: Harry Giles (knee) is questionable.
• Toronto Raptors: Pat McCaw (knee) is out.
• Utah Jazz: Emmanuel Mudiay (hamstring) is out.
• Washington Wizards: Jordan McRae (finger) is questionable.

Player Props

To bet props, I use our FantasyLabs player props tool. Follow me in the Action Network app to see my bets (or go to the bottom of the article), but the more important thing is the tool, which measures our projections for every player vs. current odds in the market and highlights the biggest edges for you.

Player props are an inefficient market, which allows casual bettors (limits are low, so pro bettors aren't incentivized to prioritize them) to grab very +EV bets. That said, the lines move quickly. Our props tool is set up so you can always see whether there's an edge even at the updated numbers throughout the day.

It's one of my favorite tools we offer and should be one of your bookmarked pages if you like making a few extra bucks. Here's a screenshot of what it looks like:

My usual recommendation: Bet unders. Last season, 10-rated props in our tool hit at a 60.31% rate. But overs hit at a 57.08% rate vs. 66.47% for unders. For 9-rated props, 55.96% of overs were successful bets vs. 62.60% for unders.

As I have noted in the past, unders have more outs: A blowout, an injury, a poor shooting night — all will likely make the under hit. But also, props are less efficient as a market given the low limits, so they're less likely to adjust for things like opponent and pace.

One under I think is intriguing is Rui Hachimura's 14.5 point total.

He got just 16 minutes last game and went under the listed total despite shooting 5-of-7 from the field. We have him back up in the 25-minute range today, but there's some usage downside with Isaiah Thomas now in the starting lineup.

Further, they'll go up against a Pacers team that could get Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner back and has been good at defending the rim this season, which is where the majority of Hachimura's shots have come. Further, the Pacers' play slow offensively and have been the third-best team in the league at limiting transition opportunities.

DFS Values and Strategy

Let's start here: Karl-Anthony Towns is back after a two-game suspension, which means he hasn't played since Oct. 30 against the Sixers, during which he played 22 minutes and struggled. He hasn't played more than 30 minutes since Oct. 27 — a week and a half — and will look to get back on track.

Oh yeah, and he's just $10,000 on DraftKings and playing the Grizzlies, who rank top-five in pace and aren't particularly scary on defense. They've fouled opponents at the highest rate in the league, and they've given up the third-most shots at the rim. That sounds dangerous against KAT.

He's a hard guy to stomach fading, although there's no shortage of studs to potentially pay up for and pivot to tonight. Giannis is going against the Kawhi-less Clippers on national TV. Andre Drummond gets the Knicks and is still just $10,800 on DraftKings. James Harden and Russell Westbrook get the Santa Cruz Warriors Golden State Warriors.

As of now, KAT, Westbrook and Drummond sit at the top of a variety of our Pro Models at FantasyLabs, but pivoting to Harden or Giannis could win GPPs.

Value-wise, you have to start with Lou Williams, who is just $6,500 on DraftKings and $6,700 on FanDuel and will be the lead guy for the Clippers without Kawhi in the mix tonight. We currently have him projected for nearly 33 minutes and a usage rate of 35% — unheard of for a mid-tier guy.

There are other value plays like Bruce Brown, Luke Kennard (the Pistons are still without Derrick Rose and Tim Frazier), JaMychal Green, Patrick Beverley (Kawhi boost) and others. Jarrett Culver and some of the Minny guys could be excellent values if Shabazz Napier (doubtful) and Jeff Teague (questionable) are unable to go against the terrible Grizzlies team.

Overall, this is setting up to be a fun, stars-and-scrubs type of slate. In general, I like to lock in the low-tier value — I don't mind eating chalk there — and in tournaments instead pivot from a stud to another.

For more DFS analysis and value plays, check out the FantasyLabs NBA models.

My Bets Currently

• Magic +7.5 (I wouldn't bet past +7)
• Bucks +1 (I grabbed after Kawhi news last night, value is long gone)

[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

See the betting analysis section above for other bets I'm eyeing. Also, follow me in our free app if you want an alert on other bets I make. I'll also make updates in the chat below.

Updates and Live Chat

I will put updated thoughts below, whether they're about line movement, injury news, etc. You can also ask questions, which I'll answer as quickly as I can.