Monday NBA Betting, DFS Cheat Sheet for All 6 Games: Favorite Bets, Pro System Matches, More

In today's NBA betting and DFS cheat sheet, we give notes on the betting market and key injuries, as well as analysis on DFS plays, player props and our favorite bets.

Here are the games on tonight's slate:

• Sacramento Kings at Washington Wizards (-2.5), 7 p.m. ET
• Toronto Raptors (-8.5) at Cleveland Cavaliers, 7 p.m. ET
• Detroit Pistons at Brooklyn Nets (-2.5), 7:30 p.m. ET
• Charlotte Hornets at Houston Rockets (-9), 8 p.m. ET
• Oklahoma City Thunder at Utah Jazz (-3.5), 9 p.m. ET
• Boston Celtics (-2) at Los Angeles Clippers, 10:30 p.m. ET

All data as of 4:30 p.m. ET on Monday. For live odds and betting percentages click here.

Monday NBA: Most Public Bets

• Over 222.5 in Pistons-Nets: 77% of bets
• Raptors -8.5 at Cavaliers: 75% of bets
• Rockets -9 vs. Hornets: 70% of bets
• Over 227 in Celtics-Clippers: 69% of bets
• Over 223.5 in Hornets-Rockets: 66% of bets

Monday NBA: Injuries to Know

In our NBA Injury Report, we broke down the betting and DFS impact of two of tonight's key injury situations

• Utah Jazz: Ricky Rubio (hip) and Raul Neto (hamstring) are out. Dante Exum (ankle) and Ekpe Udoh (back) are probable.
• Boston Celtics: Jayson Tatum (shoulder) is out.

Here's a snippet from that piece on the Celtics:

When Tatum has been off the court since Marcus Smart and Marcus Morris moved into the starting lineup, Morris has led the Celtics in rebound and assist rate differential. The Celtics’ 107.3 Offensive Rating in those minutes has registered as their lowest mark, but their 104.51 pace in minutes without Tatum is their highest tempo, per NBA.com.

The other four Celtics starters have supplied a +9.0 Net Rating when they’ve played without Tatum this season, but their free-throw rate has become almost non-existent in those possessions. Al Horford has averaged 1.42 DraftKings points per minute in that lineup.

Jaylen Brown has typically been the replacement in the starting lineup when Morris or Smart haven’t played. Brown’s last three starts have all come with Kyrie Irving unavailable as well, and those outings may have skewed his output as a replacement starter: 25.88 DraftKings points.

The Celtics lost to the Clippers a month ago in a game Irving left early due to a sprained knee. The Celtics blew a 28-point lead. They are currently favored by 1.5 points on the road against a team with a top-five Defensive Efficiency since the All-Star break. The Clippers have also ranked fourth in pace over that span, helping explain the elevated Over/Under.

For all injury news and projected starting lineups, see our daily piece here.

Monday NBA: DFS Values and Tournament Plays

Due to some injury situations, along with new roles for players after the trade deadline, there's a ton of value on today's NBA DFS slate.

Right now, there are four players with Projected Plus/Minus values above +7.5 (which is ridiculous value) on DraftKings:

• Marcus Morris ($4,500) at Clippers: +8.93 Projected Plus/Minus
• Andre Drummond ($9,100) at Nets: +8.77 Projected Plus/Minus
• Harrison Barnes ($5,200) at Wizards: +7.93 Projected Plus/Minus
• Miles Bridges ($3,300) at Rockets: +7.74 Projected Plus/Minus

Drummond is expensive at $9,100, and yet he's still a tremendous value given his recent play. Over his past 10 games, he's exceeded his salary-based expectations in eight of his games by an average of 12.31 fantasy points.

He's done well historically against the Nets, posting a double-double easily in each of his last eight games against them. He's gone for a 20-20 line in three of his last five. That'll work.

We also have a new metric this season at FantasyLabs called "Leverage Score," which combines our ceiling projections and our ownership projections to identify potentially undervalued guaranteed prize pool plays.

One player with a high Leverage Score tonight on DraftKings is Cavaliers center Kevin Love, who has a high ceiling projection and Projected Plus/Minus, but should have low ownership.

He's been pretty boom-or-bust lately, but take his game the other night as an indication of his ceiling: He put up a 24-16-4 line against the Brooklyn Nets in just 31 minutes of action. At just $7,700 on DraftKings, that type of ceiling is very valuable in tournaments.

Monday NBA: Best Player Props

There are currently 10 player props in our tool with a Bet Quality of 10. This season, those bets have both hit at a 57% win rate.

One of those is Marcus Morristo go over his 5.5-rebound prop. It's an odd line considering where he's been at recently, averaging around six rebounds per game over his last 11 games. There's probably some recency bias in there: He's hit the over in this prop once in his last four games, but he hit it seven games in a row prior to that.

It also doesn't seem to factor in the injury to Jayson Tatum, who is out tonight vs. the Clippers with a shoulder injury. Morris has seen the biggest boost in rebounding rate historically with Tatum off the floor.

Note: Player props move very quickly, and our projections are updated throughout the day in reaction to news. For up-to-date projections compared to posted props, visit the FantasyLabs Player Props Tool.

Monday NBA: Our Experts' Favorite Bets

Ken Barkley: Under 227 in Celtics-Clippers

Since the All-Star break each team has ramped up the defensive intensity even more than normal, and they both rank in the top 10 in defensive efficiency in that limited time period.

The Celtics have a 108 defensive efficiency in the second half — and keep in mind that’s counting games against Golden State and Sacramento, teams that like to run and score with abandon. Even the Lakers get up and down the court quickly even though it’s much less effective when G-Leaguers are doing it.

When Boston cares, we know that the team can develop a defensive profile that really bothers opponents, and that’s what we’re starting to see over the course of the past 10 days.

Given the obvious corner turned by the team, expectations for tonight should be no different. With each team in great form defensively, and neither playing at a particularly fast pace on offense in the second half (they both rank in the middle of the league in offensive possession length the last month), I really like the under at this number.

Matt Moore: Jazz -3.5 vs. Thunder

Jazz at home, vs. an opponent they will get up for, with Paul George still dealing with a shoulder injury? How about Ricky Rubio out, when the Jazz are 8-1 SU this season sans the Spanish Jonas Brother? How about Dante Exum back, who gives them an attacking force whose energy makes up for his inexperience? Utah needs this win, and after a letdown? One more for you: the Jazz are 7-3 at home this season ATS following a loss. Ride the No-Ricky Train to glory!

John Ewing: Cavs +8.5 vs. Raptors

Toronto clinched a playoff berth on Saturday and Cleveland has been eliminated from the postseason. Oddsmakers opened the Raptors as 10-point road favorites but the line has moved to Cavs +8.5 despite more than 70% of spread tickets being placed on the road team.

Steam moves and reverse line movement bet signals, indication of sharp money, have been triggered on Cleveland. Not only are the pros against the Raptors in a potential letdown spot but so is history. Since 2005, teams that have won more than 70% of their games, like Toronto, have gone 295-371-11 (44.3%) ATS when playing a bad team like Cleveland – won less than 30% of their games.

Bryan Mears: Under 240 in Kings-Wizards

Historically, teams that score 130 points or more in a game and then are at home for their next game have gone under the total at a high rate. The under has hit 56.1% of the time in that spot, good for a 9.6% ROI.

These two teams have smashed overs this season, but the market has caught up and posted a high total. I'll take the long-term trend and bet on the under.

Monday NBA Pro System of the Day

At Bet Labs, we have a Pro NBA System called "Pro Tickets vs. Money Spreads." It identifies games in which there's sharp money — measured as a higher percentage of dollars than bets — on the spread for a team.

This system has hit at a 53.9% rate historically, good for a 5.1% Return on Investment (ROI).

This system is especially intriguing because it's measured against the closing line. That means sharp money is on the spread, it's moving as a result and it's still hitting for a profitable ROI. That's pretty darn impressive.

There's one match tonight:

• Jazz -3.5 vs. Thunder, 9 p.m. ET

Monday NBA: Most Important Betting Trend for Every Game

• Kings at Wizards: The over is 20-10 in Wizards home games.
• Raptors at Cavs: The Raptors are 19-32-2 ATS as favorites.
• Pistons at Nets: The Nets are 19-4 straight-up and +5.98 units as favorites.
• Hornets at Rockets: The over is 19-12 in Rockets home games.
• Thunder at Jazz: The under is 10-3 when the Thunder are underdogs.
• Celtics at Clippers: The Celtics are 13-18-2 ATS on the road.

For many more trends on every game, download The Action Network app.