The Indiana Pacers (1-0) and Oklahoma City Thunder (0-1) will face off in Game 2 of the NBA Finals tonight. Tipoff is set for 8 p.m. ET at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. The game will broadcast live on ABC.
The Thunder are 11-point favorites over the Pacers on the spread, with the over/under set at 228.5 total points. Oklahoma City is a -550 favorite to win outright, while Indiana is +400 to pull off the upset.
For all intents and purposes, Indiana has a chance to end this series in Game 2 tonight. Teams who go up 2-0 on the road in the Finals are 3-0 all-time. If the Pacers win this game, they should win the series, just like the Thunder should have won the first matchup according to the historical trends…
But Oklahoma City can’t allow that to happen. And yet, Indiana hasn't abided by such things throughout these playoffs, going up 2-0 on the road in each of the previous two series. Let's get into my Pacers vs. Thunder predictions and NBA picks for Sunday, June 8.
Pacers vs Thunder Prediction, Picks for NBA Finals Game 2
My Thunder vs. Pacers Game 2 best bet is on the Under at 228.5 total points, with the best odds currently available at BetMGM. But as always, make sure to shop for the best line using our live NBA odds page.
My Pick: Under 228.5 (-110)
Pacers vs Thunder Betting Odds for Sunday, June 8
| Pacers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11 -110 | 228.5 -110 / -110 | +400 |
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11 -110 | 228.5 -110 / -110 | -550 |
- Pacers vs. Thunder spread: Thunder -11
- Pacers vs. Thunder over/under: 228.5 total points
- Pacers vs. Thunder moneyline: Pacers +400, Thunder -550
- Pacers vs. Thunder best bet: Under 228.5 (-110)
Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder NBA Finals Game 2 Preview
Well, that was wild. The Pacers flipped the Finals on their head and then gave them a swirly in the first matchup of this series, storming back on the Thunder from down 15 points (and down 9 with under three minutes left) to steal the win like they were Danny Ocean and pals.
The heist of the century means that the Pacers smashed the trends that backed the Thunder, smashed the power ratings that saw the Thunder as double-digit favorites, and stole homecourt from the best home team in the NBA playoffs.
Up is down, north is south, cats and dogs, living together, mass hysteria. But it’s just one game.
Will the Thunder restore order in Game 2 tonight? Or will the Pacers shock the world again and take a second straight game from the 68-win juggernaut?
I’ll be honest with you, I’m pretty gun-shy here. I was heavy on Oklahoma City last game.
I had the first game power-rated at Pacers +7, giving about three points of value at close on Indiana, but had ignored all that to bet the Thunder based on lethally strong trends that supported home favorites in Game 1 of the Finals.
I had even upgraded the Thunder' homecourt factor to account for that, bringing me within range of the market. That’s why they play the game, folks.
Now, everyone expects a bounce-back performance from OKC in Game 2 tonight. Surely, the Thunder are not going down 0-2. And yet, the Pacers don’t care about that at all.
Here are the trends, as fragile as they’ve been in these playoffs:
- In the last five seasons, home favorites in Game 2 after losing Game 1 are 20-10 straight up and 19-11 ATS.
- Teams down 0-1 at home as favorites after the first round are 36-14 SU and 27-22 ATS since 2003.
- Home favorites in Game 2 of the Finals after losing Game 1 outright are 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS.
- Teams that were more than 4-point favorites at home in Game 1 and are more than 4-point favorites again in Game 2 after losing Game 1 outright are 61-16 SU and 45-31 ATS (59%). In the conference finals and Finals, those teams are 8-4 SU, but just 4-7-1 ATS.
- Teams in the Finals after making more than 15 three-pointers at 40% or better are 1-5 SU and ATS the next game. Those teams are 8-10 SU and 9-9 ATS after the first round.
Betting on the home team to bounce back in the first half of Game 2 has been a good trend. But note, that’s basically limited to the second round. After losing the first matchup of the series, home teams in the first half are:
- 9-14-2 ATS in the first round
- 20-9 in the second round
- 7-7 in the conference finals
- 1-1 in the Finals
So, no real edge on that first half side, according to the trends.
Let’s talk basketball stuff.
The Pacers won the first matchup of this series, despite having 24 turnovers. The Thunder were 6-0 going into these playoffs when the opponent turned the ball over 20 or more times.
However, the issue is that Oklahoma City did not score off those turnovers. In the 11 times the Thunder were able to push the ball off turnovers, they generated just 0.64 points per possession. Overall, they scored just 11 points on the Pacers’ 25 turnovers.
If you’re not creating a points advantage off turnovers, it’s a net zero on both sides. The argument is that just creating more possessions is valuable, and it is because shots on goal of any kind are more valuable than no shots on goal. But if you don’t convert them at a high enough rate, that advantage is mitigated.
The Pacers won bench points 39-28, took nine more three-pointers, and made seven more.
This last part is crucial. The Pacers’ model for winning these games has to be to mitigate the Thunder edge in the margins on things like second-chance points (12-11 Pacers in Game 1), points off turnovers, and free throws (three more attempts for OKC, six more makes), and make this into a matchup of halfcourt offense and shooting efficiency.
Indiana is the No.1 team in effective field goal percentage in the playoffs. Their shot profile suggests they don’t take threes, but that’s a misnomer. The Pacers take whatever shots you give them.
If you give them transition layups, they’ll take and make those. If you give them midrange jumpers, they’ll take and make those. And if you give them three-pointers, they’ll take and make those.
The Thunder can adapt a lot of things in Game 2, but defensively, there’s only so much they can do. They did generate steals. They did contest at the rim. In order to defend their threes more, the Thunder have to break their season-long model of allowing threes.
Oklahoma City has allowed the highest three-point rate through the regular season and playoffs, and the lowest eFG% on those shots. It burned them last game, but they will likely stick to process.
Indiana, on the other hand, did a tremendous job getting back in transition to shut off easy OKC attacks and turned the Thunder into an iso-centric offense around Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
The Thunder’s game plan was clearly to attack Tyrese Haliburton in pick-and-roll. The Pacers responded by blitzing or showing hard.
The benefit was OKC's ability to create advantage basketball. The downside was that the offense had no flow and nobody could screen.
I downgraded the Thunder’s homecourt advantage and am back to Pacers +7. I will not be heavy on the side, but I am going to play Pacers moneyline, mostly on a gut play.
The Pacers have been terrific in these Game 2s up 1-0, and the market is overreacting towards a Thunder bounce-back in this specific spot.
Pacers vs Thunder Game 2 Betting Predictions
Under 228.5
This is a little tricky. If the Thunder win, they likely generate a high number of turnovers (again) and actually score off them, which bumps up the pace and scoring rate.
If the Pacers win, they typically do so with an over. The over is 9-4 in Indiana’s wins this postseason. But the over was exaggerated last game, and the Game 2 total has been bet up from the open of 225.5 to 228.5.
We’re tracking bets, tickets, and sharp action on the over. Three points is too far of a move, though.
I had this line projected at 228. The most underrated component in this series is the Pacers’ defense, which does a great job of funneling and challenging. The most overrated component is the Thunder offense that’s good, but not elite.
I’m betting the under again in Game 2 tonight.
Obi Toppin Over 14.5 Points + Rebounds
Toppin is a great counter to every lineup the Thunder deploy, and Oklahoma City basically treated him like he didn’t exist.
I’m not expecting an adjustment against him yet.
Tyrese Haliburton Under 8.5 Assists
The Thunder switched pretty consistently and disengaged Haliburton until he, you know, reached in and ripped out their still-beating metaphorical heart in the final moments of the first matchup of this series.
Haliburton will have scoring chances, but fewer assist chances.
Isaiah Joe Over 6.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
Joe is a natural counter to some of the problems that the Thunder had offensively in the first matchup of this series.
He is better at driving and passing than the other Thunder role players.
Pacers vs Thunder Best Bets for NBA Finals Game 2
- Under 228.5 (-110)
- Obi Toppin Over 14.5 Points + Rebounds (-125)
- Tyrese Haliburton Under 8.5 Assists (-145)
- Isaiah Joe Over 6.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (+115)
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