The 2025 NBA Finals kick off on Thursday, and the Oklahoma City Thunder enter as massive favorites to beat the Indiana Pacers.
In fact, Oklahoma City enters as a -700 favorite to knock off Indiana, which sits at +500 to pull off the upset. But is there a case to be made for this scrappy Pacers team?
Let's dive into some NBA Finals picks and Thunder vs. Pacers predictions before the series gets underway.
NBA Finals Picks: Thunder vs. Pacers
Let's get this out of the way: I really didn't want to approach this Indiana vs. OKC series with any bias toward hedging Thunder futures. It's all about making sure there's a genuine case for Indiana at +500 to take the series.
But to start, let's talk about the challenges because a solid argument needs to address the tough spots, too.
Indiana's Worries
This Thunder team isn't playing around — they're a force to be reckoned with.
That's why Indiana's odds are pretty long. A lot of smart folks are backing OKC, and there’s historical context to consider: only two teams have won the Finals with odds longer than +200. Surprise wins are super rare at this level of the NBA.
There's this recent trend where one skilled team makes it to the Finals while the other gets exposed. We've seen these long-shot teams reaching the Finals, but they're not taking the title yet.
One thing Indiana can't do is exploit Oklahoma City's potential weakness on the glass. Looking at their regular-season face-offs, it’s pretty telling. They played only two games, but the Thunder dominated the Pacers, including a 21-point win and a six-point win without Chet Holmgren.
Game 1s have been crucial for Indiana in the playoffs. Betting-wise, there’s nothing sweeter than a home Game 1 of the NBA Finals. So, if Indiana has to win it, it's looking at a tough path after snagging Game 1 and going four out of five.
The Case for the Pacers
I've been all about Indiana this year and pretty skeptical of Oklahoma City. Just a few days ago, I messaged Action Network colleague Matt Moore to say that maybe I shouldn't bet on the Pacers. Matt told me that was simply logic, which he put quite well.
But I kept poking around anyway because there's something about Indiana that catches my eye, while doubts about OKC linger.
It's all about the market, really. Friends keep asking me who I'm backing in the series. To be clear, if this were a straight pick, I'd choose OKC. Even at -200 or -300 odds, this is the superior team with an incredible home record.
But the Pacers are +500.
The Thunder posted the best net rating across the league during the regular season. But here's the thing with net ratings, including the Thunder's this season — these stats are making teams look way better in the market than they might be. I've started calling these kinds of teams "net rating merchants."
Think about the Celtics last year and this year, and definitely this current Thunder squad. They're solid teams with stellar net ratings, but when those high ratings become commonplace, they lose their shock value.
We've talked about how factors like more players sitting out games, wild swings in 3-point shooting and weaker teams are skewing these ratings. It's like it's clouding our view of how these teams actually stack up.
Remember the Celtics' title run last year? Let's be honest — they had a pretty easy path, and I was skeptical of their net rating translating into the playoffs.
That's what it comes down to. Being a net rating merchant means that maybe a team doesn't have the chops in tight games.
Could Thunder Struggle in the Clutch?
OKC went 1-4 in regular-season games decided by one possession or in overtime, although it improved to 2-2 in the playoffs. Meanwhile, Indiana has gone 3-0 in the postseason and went 9-3 in the regular season. I think the number of games is as telling as the actual record.
There's a clear argument against this, though, like in Game 4 of the Minnesota series. That game was everything I needed to see from the Thunder. They won on the road, nailed those crucial shots and closed out tight. Holmgren and Jalen Williams — two guys I sometimes worry about in clutch situations — really stepped up.
But I think Indiana's path in this series is going to look more like what the Thunder had against Denver than it did against Minnesota. The Wolves weren't a clutch team at all, and Anthony Edwards wasn't a clutch player.
The Nuggets, meanwhile, gave the Thunder a serious run for their money with a Game 7 showdown despite some injuries.
So, there's my take on why Indiana might have a shot against the "net rating merchant" that is OKC.
