NBA Expert Picks: Our Staff’s 6 Favorite Win Total Bets Before Free Agency


Photo credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jrue Holiday

Jun 25, 2019, 12:29 PM EDT
  • Sportsbooks posted next-season NBA win totals early this year ... before the free agency bonanza even begins.
  • Our staff dives into the odds and gives their six favorite win total bets ahead of July's movement.

The NBA free agency craziness isn’t here yet (at least fully), but sportsbooks have already released 2019-20 NBA win totals. There’s obviously a lot of uncertainty, but that could also lead to betting value.

Ahead of next week’s movement, which win totals are currently the most enticing? Our staff has six to check out.

Matt MooreSan Antonio Spurs over 44.5 wins

The Spurs hit the over last season despite a mid-40s number. They get Dejounte Murray back and another year for Derrick White and their other young players.

The Spurs’ floor is 45 wins, barring major injury. If they were to trade DeMar DeRozan or LaMarcus Aldridge for a competent 3-point threat as primary ball-handler, their ceiling goes way up as well.

The Spurs won 48 last year, going 26-15 vs. teams under .500 — their tried-and-true model. There’s no reason to think that they’ll take a step back in free agency, and they may find some better rotation players.

This number fails to recognize 1) the organizational stability of the team, 2) how good Dejounte Murray is and how important he is for adding spacing to the team, and 3) how the Spurs consistently game the regular-season schedule to produce wins.

Wob: New Orleans Pelicans under 35.5 wins

model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game
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