The San Antonio Spurs (17-7) and Oklahoma City Thunder (24-1) will face off in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 9:00 p.m. EST from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nev. The game will broadcast live on Amazon Prime Video.
The Thunder are 10.5-point favorites over the Spurs on the spread (Thunder -10.5), with the over/under set at 232 total points. Oklahoma City is a -500 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while San Antonio is +390 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Spurs vs. Thunder predictions and NBA picks for Saturday, December 13.
My Spurs vs Thunder Prediction
- Spurs vs Thunder pick: Under 232 (-110)
My Thunder vs Spurs best bet is on the under, with the best price currently available at bet365. However, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Spurs vs Thunder Odds
| Spurs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -105 | 232 -110o / -110u | +390 |
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -115 | 232 -110o / -110u | -500 |
Spurs vs Thunder NBA Cup Semifinals Preview
The Spurs and Thunder advanced to the NBA Cup Semifinals with relatively easy victories in the quarterfinals.
San Antonio defeated the Lakers 132-119 while Oklahoma City easily dispatched the Suns 138-89.
The Spurs have won four of their last five games, while the Thunder enter this matchup on a 16-game winning streak.
It is a fitting Western Conference Semifinals matchup considering the young cores these front offices have assembled.
The Thunder's young roster has already proven its mettle after winning the NBA Finals last June. However, this could be the first of several significant matchups between these teams over the next few years.
OKC has won eight of the last 10 meetings and covered in seven. This will be their first this season.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the league's second leading scorer at 32.6 points per game.
The Spurs have been one of the few teams to make him somewhat mortal, but he is still averaging 28.3 points on 54% shooting over the last seven matchups.
The Thunder have also recently gotten Jalen Williams back, and that may be bad news for San Antonio. He has scored 68 points in his last two games against them.
Center Isaiah Hartenstein is off the injury report as well, which means the Thunder will have their preferred starting lineup available for the first time this season.
The Spurs are also getting a notable return, with Victor Wembanyama, who has been upgraded to probable after missing the past 12 games with a calf strain.
If Wembanyama is indeed active, he will have a minutes limit according to head coach Mitch Johnson. However, it does also mean another matchup with longtime rival Chet Holmgren.
In their head-to-head meetings, Wembanyama is averaging 16.5 points, 11.8 rebounds, and 3.5 blocks, while Holmgren is averaging 17 points, seven rebounds, and 1.8 blocks per game.
Spurs vs Thunder Prediction, Betting Analysis
These teams are 5-3 to the under over the last eight meetings, the last seven of which have come since the Spurs drafted Wembanyama.
The last contest was a notable outlier, with 278 points in a game in which Wembanyama did not play. While the Spurs offense actually has been four points better with Wembanyama off the floor, their defensive rating has been 11 points better.
Additionally, the Spurs getting back Wembanyama puts them at full strength for the first time this season, which may also lead to a little clunkiness against the league's best defense.
The Thunder's defensive rating is nearly eight points better than the Rockets' second-best mark.
Oklahoma City's NBA Cup Semifinal game against Houston produced just 207 points, and the championship game against Milwaukee had 178. While the scoring struggles may not be as drastic tonight, I expect this game to land under 232 points.
I do, however, expect Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams to combine for 40 points. Gilgeous-Alexander has scored 25 points in six of his last seven games against the Spurs and in 22 of 24 games this season. Williams has scored 15 points in each of his last five games.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma City's defense is tough, but it is willing to give up the long ball. It is 24th in 3-point attempts allowed and 23rd in 3-pointers allowed overall and specifically to power forwards.
The Thunder also allow 11.7 corner 3-point attempts per game, the third-most in the league. This favors Harrison Barnes, who has made at least two 3s in each of his last three games against the Thunder.
Off the bench, Keldon Johnson is averaging 13.1 points and 6.5 rebounds per game this season. He has pulled down four rebounds in the last three games against the Thunder and in 10 of 12 games without Wembanyama this season.
If Wembanyama is limited to about 28 minutes or so, Johnson figures to play a sizable role tonight.
Pick: Under 232 (-110, bet365)
Spurs vs Thunder Parlay Picks
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 25+ Points
- Jalen Williams 15+ Points
- Keldon Johnson 4+ Rebounds
- Harrison Barnes 2+ Three-Pointers Made
Parlay Odds: +222 via DraftKings
Thunder vs Spurs Betting Trends
