Suns vs Warriors NBA First Basket Prop Pick: Bet Deandre Ayton, Chris Paul

Suns vs Warriors NBA First Basket Prop Pick: Bet Deandre Ayton, Chris Paul article feature image

Stephen Gosling/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Deandre Ayton #22 of the Phoenix Suns helps up Chris Paul #3 of the Phoenix Suns.

  • The Phoenix Suns and Golden State Warriors meet in a Monday night matchup.
  • The Suns have value in first scorer markets and NBA First Basket sees two players he's targeting.
  • Read on for his analysis and picks below.

NBA First Basket will break down some of his favorite NBA plays of the day here, and will track all his bets in The Action Network app.

NBA First Basket Prop Pick: Deandre Ayton, Chris Paul

OddsAyton (+425) I Paul (+1500)
Time10 p.m. ET
Book DraftKings | FanDuel

The Phoenix Suns travel to San Francisco to take on the Golden State Warriors on Monday night. Deandre Ayton (72% opening-tip win rate) will face off against Kevon Looney (51% win rate) on the opening tip-off. Over the past two seasons, the two have split tip-offs, with each man winning three, but I think the Suns have the edge to get the first possession tonight.

With Mikal Bridges traded away and Kevin Durant injured, early possessions for the Suns have been dominated by Devin Booker and Ayton. Ayton is twice as likely to take the first shot, based on season data, takes the first shot in 33% of games started and cashes the first basket in 19% of games started on the season.

The Warriors give up first baskets to the opposing center in 32% of games this season (second-highest in the league). Over the past 12 games, the opposing center has scored the first team basket in six of those games.

I like Ayton to take the first shot tonight and get the first field goal (I'll play that one on DraftKings). Booker is the player next most likely to score first, but I can't pair those two together at their current odds. Instead, I'll add Chris Paul for first basket on FanDuel in case the Warrior defense doubles Ayton and he has to find an open man.

Pick: Ayton +425 — Down to +350 (0.8 units)

Pick: Paul +1500 — down to +1200 (0.2 units)

Suns vs. Warriors First Basket Prop Data

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Doug Ziefel
Jun 23, 2024 UTC