The Dallas Mavericks (12-19) and Golden State Warriors (15-15) will face off in the NBA on Christmas Day. Tipoff is set for 5:00 p.m. ET from Chase Center in San Francisco, California. The game will be broadcast live on ABC.
The Warriors are 8-point favorites over the Mavericks on the spread (Warriors -8), with the over/under set at 229 total points. Golden State is a -340 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Dallas is +260 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Mavericks vs. Warriors predictions and NBA picks for Christmas Day.
Mavericks vs Warriors Prediction, Picks
- Mavericks vs Warriors pick: Over 228.5 (-115)
My Mavericks vs Warriors best bet is on the over, with the best price currently available at bet365. However, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Mavericks vs Warriors Odds
| Mavericks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8 -110 | 229 -110o / -110u | +260 |
| Warriors Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8 -110 | 229 -110o / -110u | -340 |
Mavericks vs Warriors NBA Christmas Day Preview
I project this game to stay under the total, but I’m fading the model.
The Mavericks have been an over team as of late, going 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games with a totals margin of +9.55 — and they are 8-4 to the over since Ryan Nembhard entered the starting lineup for Dallas.
Overs on Christmas have been dynamite; overs are 53% in the last 10 years and 14-6 in the last five Christmas Days.
The Warriors rank 10th in over rate at home this season. Meanwhile, Dallas ranks 2nd in transition points added since November 28 when Nembhard began starting — the Mavericks are simply running more.
Dallas’ offense is still wildly mediocre and the Warriors’ defense is solid-to-good — but there’s enough factors at play here to suggest that the over is the best option on the table in this game.
Mavericks vs Warriors Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Mavericks defense is designed to slow down pick-and-roll-heavy offenses, which Golden State is not.
Dallas’ defensive issues tend to show on cuts and screens, and those are primary offensive actions for the Warriors.
At the other end of the floor, the Mavericks are huge, and the Warriors struggle on the defensive glass.
Dallas is a team that wants to run, and the Warriors have the third-shortest defensive possession length on average. Teams get quick shots against Golden State, they just don’t convert them at a high level.
I’ll take the over here and assume my numbers are behind the more recent offensive success of the Mavericks.
Pick: Over 228.5 (-115)
Spread
I'm not betting either side of the spread in this game.
Moneyline
No play on the moneyline.
Over/Under
My Warriors vs Mavericks betting prediction is on the over at 228.5 total points.
