NBA Odds & Picks for Timberwolves vs. Warriors: Will Steph Curry Have Another Big Game? (April 29)

Timberwolves vs. Warriors Odds

The Timberwolves host the Warriors Thursday night in the third and final meeting between these teams this season. The Warriors won consecutive games in San Francisco at the end of January, but neither D’Angelo Russell nor Karl-Anthony Towns played in the games.

The Warriors are looking to bounce back after an embarrassing 133-103 loss to the Mavericks Tuesday night on national television. The Warriors allowed a 28-0 run that essentially ended the game by early in the second quarter. Conversely, the Timberwolves have won a season-high three straight games after sweeping a two-game mini-series with the Jazz and beating the Rockets 114-107 on Tuesday.

Obviously, the players and coaches will be doing all they can to win this game, but fans of both teams should be rooting for their team to lose because the Warriors get the Timberwolves’ first-round pick if it ends up outside of the top three picks. Heading into Thursday’s game, the Warriors have a 59.83% chance of getting the Timberwolves’ pick in this year’s loaded draft.

Minnesota Timberwolves

If the Warriors win as road favorites, they will need Andrew Wiggins and Jordan Poole to step up alongside Stephen Curry and Draymond Green. Kelly Oubre (wrist) is doubtful to play Thursday, while Eric Paschall (hip) and Damion Lee (health and safety protocols) remain out. James Wiseman (meniscus) and Klay Thompson (Achilles) are out for the season.

Curry is having one of the best months of his career this April, making 47.6% of his 3s on 13.5 attempts per game. After scoring 32 points or fewer in the seven games he played in March, Curry has scored at least 32 points in 12 of 14 games in April while averaging 37.3 points per game this month. Curry is second in the league in scoring average this season with 31.2 points per game, and his 135.2 points per 100 shots rank in the 100th percentile among point guards, per Cleaning The Glass.

The Warriors can count on Curry to be somewhere between very good and incredible offensively. They can also count on Green to continue doing the dirty work that maximizes their chances of winning by defending, rebounding and passing at a high level. However, the Warriors will need other scorers to step up if they win and cover on Thursday in Minneapolis.

The Warriors will be without four of their top eight scorers when they face the Timberwolves. Only two of their four players who average more than 11 points per game will be available. The Warriors’ shooting will also be limited as Poole (5.0) and Wiggins (5.1) are the only available Warriors outside of Oubre (5.2) and Curry (12.0) who are attempting more than three 3s per game.

The Warriors have been more reliant on 3-point shooting than any other team this season and getting efficient performances from Poole and Wiggins will likely decide whether the Warriors cover against the Timberwolves.

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Golden State Warriors

If the Timberwolves cover or pull the upset, they will need D’Angelo Russell to step up alongside Karl-Anthony Towns.

The Timberwolves have an elite offensive player with Towns and rank 25th in offensive efficiency. Russell and Towns are the Timberwolves players available who are making more than 37% of their 3s.

Russell is scoring 19.6 points per game in 13 April games while shooting 41.9% on 3s this month. Russell averaged 25 points per game in the Timberwolves’ two recent upset victories over the Jazz. His 114.5 points per 100 shot attempts rank in the 68th percentile among combo guards this season.

Emerging scorers Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels will also need to step up. Both players are incredibly athletic and have a great shooting range, but they each rank among the bottom 37th percentile in points per shot attempt this season.

Timberwolves-Warriors Pick

While I lean toward the Timberwolves +4.5, I prefer the value on Over 234.5 despite the high total as both teams should have the upper hand offensively against the opposing defenses.

Expect the Warriors’ offense to score efficiently despite Oubre’s absence. Among the four Warriors attempting more than three 3s per game, Oubre (31.6%) is the only one who shoots 3s below 35% accuracy. If Oubre can’t play, it wouldn’t be horrific for the Warriors as players like Curry, Kent Bazemore, Wiggins, Poole, and Mychal Mulder will benefit from more shots in his absence.

The Warriors scored at least 123 points in each of the previous games with the Timberwolves, and the Timberwolves’ offense will be more potent with Towns and Russell available for the first time against the Warriors. The Timberwolves are playing their best basketball, and I expect the Warriors to play much more focused in their first action after their embarrassing loss to the Mavericks. I like both teams’ chances of playing well offensively and will bet over 234.5 on FanDuel with value up to 237.5.

Pick: Over 234.5 (bet up to 237.5).