The Houston Rockets (2-3) and Golden State Warriors (3-2) will face off in Game 6 of their first round NBA Playoff series tonight. Tipoff is set for 9 p.m. ET at the Chase Center in San Francisco, California. The game will broadcast live on ESPN.
The Warriors are 5.5-point favorites over the Rockets on the spread, with the over/under set at 207.5 total points. Golden State is a -235 favorite to win outright, while Houston is +194 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Rockets vs. Warriors predictions and NBA picks on Friday, May 2.
Rockets vs Warriors Prediction, Picks for Game 6
This spot should flatter Golden State, as the Warriors have a chance to clinch this series at home tonight in Game 6.
The Warriors dug themselves a massive hole in the previous meeting, and as a result, their starters got a lengthy rest. Look for Golden State to bounce back and play much better in Game 6.
However, the total piques my interest more than the spread in this matchup, considering how aggressively the bookmakers have moved down their numbers throughout this series.
It's worth noting that the Over is on a 4-0 run this postseason with a total of 205 or fewer points, although tonight's over/under is set a few points above that benchmark.
My Pick: Over 207.5 (-110)
Rockets vs Warriors Odds for Friday, May 7
| Rockets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 207.5 -110o / -110u | +194 |
| Warriors Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 207.5 -110o / -110u | -235 |
- Rockets vs. Warriors spread: Warriors -5.5
- Rockets vs. Warriors over/under: 207.5 total points
- Rockets vs. Warriors moneyline: Rockets +194, Warriors -235
- Rockets vs. Warriors best bet:Over 207.5 (-110)
Houston Rockets vs Golden State Warriors Game 6 Betting Preview
The Rockets' offense has looked much better over the past few games. You could easily argue that they even outplayed the Warriors on their home court in the previous matchup of this series at the Chase Center.
Houston shot better from the floor (49.4% vs. 41.9%) and beyond the arc (47.8% vs. 37%). They also won the rebounding battle (41-34), scored more points in transition (14-10), and scored more inside the paint (48-28).
The Rockets went to the free throw line nine more times than Golden State in that contest, but only managed to sink 19 of their 31 attempts (61.3%), compared to the Warriors, who went 20-of-22 (90.9%) at the line.
Last time out, the Rockets shot a blistering 55.1% from the floor, 43.3% from the perimeter, and went 32-of-38 (84.2%) from the charity stripe.
During this series, Houston has shot 42 more free throw attempts than the Warriors, and having that kind of aggression in driving to the basket feels like a bit of a dream scenario for over-bettors.
The Warriors have the sixth-oldest roster in the league, and they're clearly struggling to cope with Houston's athleticism.
Although it took a few games to get settled in, the Rockets are starting to find their footing in this series.
You could also argue that the tempo has probably been faster than expected, as this series has the fourth-fastest tempo in the first round, averaging 93 possessions over 48 minutes.
Since both teams finished the regular season no worse than seventh defensively, it is pleasing to know that the offenses aren't just trying to run down the shot clock before attempting a basket.
If the Rockets can continue to attack the paint and get downhill, they'll have a great chance to register enough free throw attempts to push Game 6 over the total tonight.
Rockets vs Warriors Game 6 Best Bet
- Over 207.5 (-110)
Rockets vs Warriors Game 6 Parlay Picks
- Buddy Hield Over 14.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
- Over 207.5
Parlay Payout: +215
The Warriors will likely need Buddy Hield's perimeter play off the bench to win this game.
The good news for Warriors fans is that bench players tend to perform better at home when the crowd is behind them.
Hield has a points + rebounds + assists (PRA) prop listed at 14.5, a number he cleared in seven of his last 12 (58%) meetings against the Rockets. However, if we adjust those parameters to include only home games against Houston during that span, his cover rate improved to 80% (4-of-5).
Hield also has a nice upward trajectory in minutes played at home vs. the Rockets, going from 24.4 to 27.2, to 25.1, to 29.2, to 30.3 across the last five games.
With Warriors head coach Steve Kerr showing a greater willingness to give Hield more minutes at home, we should be in a good spot for him to cover this line.
Combining Hield's PRA prop with the game to go over the total boosts our odds to +215 on a same game parlay for tonight.
For the latest on NBA injuries, be sure to check out our NBA Injury Report page.
Rockets vs Warriors Betting Trends
- 57% of bets and 59% of the money are on the Rockets to cover the spread
- 80% of bets and 49% of the money on the moneyline are on the Warriors to win outright
- 96% of bets and 97% of the money are on the over
Betting trends via our live, updating NBA public betting & money percentages page.
