NBA Odds & Picks for Knicks vs. Hornets: These Trends Say to Back New York
Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Austin Rivers (left) and Julius Randle.
Knicks vs. Hornets Odds
|Knicks Odds||+4.5 [BET NOW]|
|Hornets Odds||-4.5 [BET NOW]|
|Moneyline||+164 / -196 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||211 [BET NOW]|
|Time||7 p.m. ET|
|TV||NBA League Pass|
|Odds as of Monday at 5:20 p.m. ET and via FanDuel. Get up to a $1,000 risk-free bet at FanDuel today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.|
The Knicks are on the second game of a back to back after losing to the Nuggets and now they’re traveling to play the Hornets less than 24 hours later. Will the short rest affect the Knicks and will the Hornets be able to capitalize on their rest advantage?
New York Knicks
The Knicks look to rebound from their 114-89 loss to the Nuggets on Sunday night.
This season has been incredibly exciting and confusing for Knicks fans, who had low expectations but have been surprised at every turn.
One of the most interesting stats to me is that as of Sunday night, the Knicks had the second best defense in the league, per Cleaning the Glass, giving up just 105.9 points per 100 possessions. They’ve been able to do this by having the second-best allowed eFG% (49.9%).
The one problem? They have the second-worst expected allowed eFG% (55.7%).
This is partially because the Knicks allow shots at the rim and from 3-point range while limiting opponents’ midrange shots. However, the Knicks hustle (the Nuggets game excluded). Per 48 minutes, the Knicks rank eighth in contested 3-point shots, per NBA Advanced Stats. They’re tied for fourth in defensive loose balls recovered, and they’re doing all of this while maintaining the fourth-slowest Pace of play in the league (98.44), per NBA Advanced Stats.
Tom Thibodeau is getting every ounce of talent from this team and historically, it’s been profitable to bet on Thibodeau-coached teams on no rest. Throughout his coaching career, his teams are 70-62-1 against the spread (ATS) on no rest, including 42-35-0 ATS as the visiting team, per BetLabs. Additionally, as the visitor, his teams hit the under 40-36-1.
The Hornets have been led by a resurgent Gordon Hayward, who might be on his way to the best season of his career. Additionally, Rookie of the Year favorite, LaMelo Ball, just logged his first career triple-double against the Hawks over the weekend.
Despite the flash, is this team actually good? The Hornets are 5-5 straight up (SU) and ATS, but they’re 0-3 SU and ATS as favorites.
This makes sense. The Hornets are just 23rd in point differential per 100 possessions (-2.3) this season, per Cleaning the Glass. They’re also ranked 23rd (52.0%) in eFG%, but they rank fourth (55.2%) in expected eFG%.
One issue for the Hornets is they rank second to last in FG% at the rim and against this Knicks team, that could prove to be problematic. New York is the eighth-best team at defending the rim, per Cleaning the Glass.
Despite this being the Knicks’ third game in four days, I think this is a good buy-low spot. While the Hornets had Sunday off, this is also their third game in four days so I don’t think this is as significant of an advantage for Charlotte as it appears.
Over the last two seasons, when the favorite has the rest advantage against a team on no rest, they are just 83-99-6 ATS. When those teams are .500 or worse, they are even worse, 37-53-1 ATS. Fading those teams would return a 14.9% ROI, per our BetLabs database.
This matchup does not favor the Hornets with the Knicks’ ability to defend the rim and close out on 3-pointers, they should limit the Hornets’ second-chance points as they try to steal this one on the road.
The Knicks should bounce back after a tough loss and the Hornets are on a three-game win streak, both SU and ATS. Something’s got to give. The Hornets have not fared well as a favorite this season, and Thibodeau can get his roster up for this game.
I also lean toward the under since the Knicks and the Hornets are a combined 15-5 to that this season, and neither is particularly efficient offensively.
Pick: Knicks +4.5