Mavericks vs. 76ers Odds & Picks: Back Philly As the Favorite Monday
Sean Gardner/Getty Images. Pictured: Tobias Harris, Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid
- The Dallas Mavericks are playing a back-to-back at home against the Philadelphia 76ers, who are coming off a day of rest.
- Should you back the Sixers as small favorites against the Mavs? Our analyst takes a closer look.
76ers vs. Mavericks Odds
|Moneyline||-135 / +110|
|Time||7:30 p.m. ET|
|Odds as of Sunday evening and via BetMGM.|
The Mavericks stay at home for the second night of a back-to-back as they take on the visiting Philadelphia 76ers. The Mavericks lost a nail-biter to the Spurs Sunday night and the 76ers made short work of the Thunder on Saturday.
Will the 76ers’ rest advantage prove to be critical in this matchup versus Luka Doncic and the Mavericks?
The 76ers will see Tobias Harris and Danny Green return to the lineup for this matchup and their return should reduce Mike Scott’s and Tyrese Maxey’s minutes. They are in a dogfight for the top seed in the East with the Nets and securing a victory would put them in a good position for their showdown with Brooklyn on Wednesday.
The 76ers have been elite this season and when healthy they post some of the best advanced metrics in the league. When the trio of Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris share the floor, the 76ers are +15.8 points per 100 possessions, per Cleaning the Glass. This mark is in the 98th percentile and it is the result of domination on both the offensive and defensive sides of the ball.
The advantage of having these three on the court is seemingly obvious, but they are excellent in the half-court. On offense, they score 104.7 points per possession (94th percentile) and on defense they allow just 91.2 points per 100 (91st percentile). Additionally, they limit their opponents to just a 21.4% rebounding rate and severely limit their second chance opportunities, per Cleaning the Glass. The 76ers are able to control the game and dictate the pace, which is critical when facing elite competition.
The Mavericks played Sunday night without Maxi Kleber (sore right leg) so consider him questionable for this matchup. Keep an eye on Kristaps Porzingis, who has has sat out some games in back-to-back sets due to injury management, and monitor his status using our Fantasy Labs Insiders Tool. It should be noted that the Mavericks currently sit in the 7 seed, so there’s legitimate incentive for them to play Porzingis and win as many games as possible to catch the Trail Blazers to avoid any play-in games.
The Mavericks’ success ties directly to Doncic and how his teammates play off of him. Since Porzingis returned from injury earlier this season, when Doncic and Porzingis share the floor, the Mavericks’ offense has been excellent, and they score 121.2 points per 100 possessions. However, their defense is lacking and they surrender 116.8 points per 100, per Cleaning the Glass.
This is actually a worse defensive number than Dallas’ season average and while Porzingis has been putting up great counting stats, his defensive prowess has not returned. One issue he has had is defending at the perimeter and moving laterally. He’s been beat by more physical offensive players, but also by quicker players when he switches onto them. The Mavericks will need his size and length in this matchup and if he is rested or gets into foul trouble because of Embiid, this will be a tough matchup for the Mavericks.
The Mavericks have performed poorly against the spread at home this season at just 10-14, and they fail to cover by an average margin of 3.44 points, per BetLabs. Moreover, they are 0-3 ATS on the second half of a back-to-back. On the flip side, the 76ers have not been particularly profitable either and are just 13-13 ATS on the road. So where is the angle?
This will be a battle in the trenches and while Doncic will always perform, he may have a bit more difficulty than normal with Simmons, an NBA All-Defensive First Teamer, covering him. This will put tremendous weight on the shoulders of Porzingis. He shined Sunday night with 31 and 15 against the Spurs, but if he’s held out or unable to contend with Embiid, this matchup will be all Philadelphia.
The Mavericks prefer to orchestrate their offense from the half-court, and 84% of their possessions come within it. While they score the fifth-most points per play in this situation, Philadelphia is even better in the half-court due to its ability to switch at will with multiple effective defenders between Simmons, Embiid and Matisse Thybulle.
When these teams played on February 25th, Porzingis missed that game and the 76ers were five-point favorites at home. The 76ers won that game 111-97 and limited Doncic to just 19 points, three rebounds and four assists. This was despite Embiid shooting just 25% from the floor and Harris scoring just six points.
With this game moving to Dallas, and the addition of Porzingis into the equation, I think we will just be getting a discount on the 76ers. They have been the better team all season, and when their starters can play together they’ve excelled on both ends of the floor.
Pick: 76ers -2
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