Wednesday NBA Prop Picks: Jaylen Brown, Patrick Beverley, More
Photo credit: Noah Graham/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Patrick Beverley
- Jaylen Brown's assists. Alec Burks' rebounds. Patrick Beverley's rebounds.
- Brandon Anderson explains how to bet those three NBA props on Wednesday night.
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll, especially in the postseason. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
|Win-Loss (Win Pct)|
|Bet Quality of 10||775-572 (57%)|
|Bet Quality of 9||942-776 (54%)|
|Bet Quality of 8||1432-1263 (52%)|
Today’s props come from two of the slate’s four games:
- Boston Celtics vs. Philadelphia 76ers at 6:30 p.m. ET on TNT
- Los Angeles Clippers vs. Dallas Mavericks at 9 p.m. ET on TNT
NBA Player Prop Bets
Boston Celtics, Jaylen Brown
The Prop: Over 2.5 assists (+130)
Between all the games Tuesday, the big news came from a team that wasn’t playing. The Boston Celtics announced that Gordon Hayward would miss as much as four weeks with an ankle injury he sustained in his 2020 playoff debut. The Celtics are not a particularly deep team, already relying heavily on six men at the top of their rotation. That number is now five, which means more Boston bench reliance but also bigger roles for the stars at the top.
Jayson Tatum has elevated his game greatly over the last couple months of play, but Brown has also been one of the season’s most improved players. Now Boston will need even more from Brown. He averaged a career-high 2.1 assists per game this season and had four in Game 1 against Philly. He also played 38.9 minutes, and that was with Hayward playing.
He should approach that workload again and will have plenty of opportunities to make a play. Brown frequently gets matched up against one of the opponent’s weaker defenders, since the opposing team is more worried about Tatum and Kemba Walker. This is his opportunity to take another step and add to his playmaking.
This prop initially opened at 1.5 on some boards but was snatched up quickly. It’s not as much of a sure bet at 2.5, but we’re getting plus odds. We’re projecting Brown at 2.6 assists, right at this number, so it’s worth a play down to +110.
Philadelphia 76ers, Alec Burks
The Prop: Over 3.5 rebounds (-140)
The 76ers are down a game to the Celtics, but they have new life after that Hayward injury news. But Philadelphia is also down Ben Simmons and still struggling to find enough playmaking and shot-making, a combination it just doesn’t have much of on its roster.
Simmons provided one but not the other. New point guard Shake Milton can hit shots but doesn’t stress the defense much, and Tobias Harris falls more into that category, too, despite his eight Game 1 assists. Burks is maybe the only Philadelphia player who can do a bit of both.
Burks was a late addition to this roster but saw his minutes ramping up in the seeding games and played 27.5 minutes in the playoff opener, his second highest in Philadelphia. Look for the Sixers to lean on Burks’ experience and dual abilities and keep him on the floor.
We project 27.5 more minutes for Burks, and that means rebounding opportunities. Burks is typically a nice rebounder, averaging 6.2 rebounds per 36 minutes over the past four seasons. That would put him at 4.7 here, and he had six in the opener. I initially saw this line at 4, so it’s actually going the other direction. I like it there but love it at 3.5 and would play up to -175.
Los Angeles Clippers, Patrick Beverley
The Prop: Over 3.5 rebounds (-150)
It was quite a surprise to see Beverley play in Game 1 against the Mavericks. He had barely played in the bubble and not at all since August 4, and he was listed as questionable along with Landry Shamet, looking unlikely to play.
Not only did Beverley play — he started! And he made an impact immediately, stealing a pass after the opening jump ball just five seconds into the game, then turning it over seconds later and picking up the game’s first foul within a minute. That was Beverley’s game in a nutshell: all the usual frenetic energy, but rusty as anything. He played only 20 minutes due to foul trouble all game, twice picking up a pair of fouls in under a minute of game time.
In a sense, that’s Patrick Beverley. You’re going to get 150% of the Beverley experience every minute he’s out there. He’s not going to score much, but he’ll pester the opponent and get to those 50-50 balls. Beverley’s minutes should only go up as the rust wears off and the foul rate drops.
We’re projecting him at 27.4 minutes and 5.1 rebounds, a touch above his averages over the past season. The Clippers struggled in minutes from Shamet and Reggie Jackson in Game 1, so they’ll want Beverley out there as much as he’s able. Even in those 20 Game 1 minutes, Beverley recorded five rebounds. I’ll play this one up to -170, and I’m happy to play if the number goes up a point, too.