Monday’s Best NBA Player Props: Bet on Big Game for Buddy Hield?

Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.

That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.

How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.

As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:

• Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
• Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
• Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
• Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
• Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)

Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.

Tonight’s props come from two of the slate’s six games:

• Golden State Warriors at Atlanta Hawks: 7:30 p.m. ET
• Chicago Bulls at Sacramento Kings: 10:00 p.m. ET on NBATV

Let’s dive in.

Warriors C Willie Cauley-Stein

THE PICK: Under 7.5 rebounds (-143)

Cauley-Stein has been a nice producer for the Warriors recently, but this line seems high. He’s played just 24.1 minutes or fewer in each of his past three games, and he could see a few less minutes today with Kevon Looney back in the lineup. Looney will likely be limited in some capacity, but he’s ultimately going to be direct competition for Cauley-Stein in terms of playing time.

Even if WCS sees his usual workload, there’s no guarantee that he hits the over on this number. He’s played at least 22.7 minutes in 12 games this season, and he’s logged at least eight rebounds in just five of those contests.

I'm willing to roll the dice on this prop given the uncertainty with his role. I like it up to -160.
[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

Kings SG Buddy Hield

THE PICK: Over 21.5 points (-110)

Hield has been forced to take on a larger workload for the Kings since the injury to De’Aaron Fox. Fox has missed the past nine games due to an ankle injury, and Hield has averaged 36.6 minutes and 22.9 points per game over that time frame.

He hasn’t shot the ball particularly well during those contests either, making just 41.0% of his field goals and 35.2% of his shots from 3-point range. Both of those marks represent significant decreases compared to his marks from last season, so he’s a candidate for some positive regression moving forward.

Maybe that will start today vs. the Chicago Bulls. It’s not a particularly intimidating matchup — the Bulls are middle of the pack in terms of defensive efficiency — and the Kings’ implied team total of 108 points represents a moderate increase compared to their season average (104.2).

I like this prop because we can win it in a couple of ways. Hield has the potential to get there with a hot shooting night or through sheer volume. I would play the over up to -125.

If you’re looking for more action on Hield, the overs on his assist and rebound props are also popping as recommended plays in our Prop tool.
[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]