Wednesday’s NBA Player Prop Bets: 3 Picks Including the Return of Kevin Durant for the Nets (April 7)
Elsa/Getty Images. Pictured: Kevin Durant
- With nine NBA games to choose from on Wednesday night, there's no shortage of action to select from.
- Kevin Durant is expected to make his long-awaited return to Brooklyn's lineup today, but James Harden is out.
- See who else Brandon Anderson is targeting in his picks.
Kevin Durant is finally back! It’s been far too long, but KD is back on the court tonight, and we’re going to jump on Durant and play his prop right away while we still have the opportunity.
For those who are new to this article, we’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Dwayne Bacon, under 19.5 points + rebounds + assists (-105)
|Wizards at Magic||+3.5|
|Time||7 p.m. ET|
We’ve certainly had some fun betting Orlando Magic overs this season, and Bacon overs have been sizzling lately. That’s what happens when you tear down an entire roster and trade your three best healthy players away while your next best guys are out injured and leave the roster barren of NBA talent, shots, usage, and competent playing time.
Enter Dwayne Bacon. It’s been All You Can Eat season on Bacon lately. With the Magic so short on options, he’s been taking any shot he wants. He hoisted 19 shots against both the Blazers and the Lakers a week ago, and he’s played at least 30 minutes as a starter in five of the last six games.
But Bacon isn’t the only Magic man anymore. Rookie point guard Cole Anthony finally makes his return tonight after a long injury spell, and Michael Carter-Williams is back in the lineup too. On top of that, rookie Chuma Okeke has been balling lately and become a more reliable option. With those three guys around now, that means less touches and usage for Bacon, and that’s the angle here.
Our Props Tool is fading everything about Bacon tonight, projecting him at 11.1 points, 3.0 rebounds, and 1.6 assists. Even in this recent stretch of big minutes and usage, Bacon is averaging just 20.7 points + rebounds + assists, barely going over this number overall and actually under 19.5 PRA in four of the six games.
Fade the usage here, and let’s see if Bacon can put some money in our piggy banks tonight. This PRA under is the top play on our board tonight with more than a 21% edge in our favor. I’ll play to -130.
Kevin Durant, over 20.5 points (-105)
|Pelicans at Nets||-9|
|Time | TV||7:30 p.m. ET | ESPN|
Finally. It’s been almost two months since we last saw Durant on a basketball court, and we’ve only seen the Slim Reaper play 19 games in two seasons since that Finals Achilles tear.
No one expected Durant to be out this long when he was sidelined on Valentine’s Day, but that’s because James Harden has played MVP ball in Durant’s absence and allowed Brooklyn to be extraordinarily cautious with KD’s return.
And that’s why I like this bet. I don’t think Durant would be in the lineup tonight unless the Nets were really confident he was ready. And if Durant is playing, he’s scoring. The man can put up 20 points in his sleep.
Durant has scored at least 20 in every single game this season, outside of that one weird game when he came off the bench and then left early with for COVID health protocols. That’s a perfect 18-for-18 with at least 20 points as a Nets starter, and he’s averaging 30.2 PPG if you throw that one game out.
Not that scoring is anything new for Durant. In his career, Durant has scored at least 20 points in 738 of 868 games, per Basketball Reference. That’s over 85% of the time that KD has taken the court, the man drops at least 20. In fact, throw out KD’s rookie year and any games under 25 minutes and that number jumps to just under 90%.
Durant is one of the great scorers in NBA history, and we only need 21 points. What if KD has a minutes limit in his first game back? Fine, maybe he does, though I don’t think he’d be playing if the Nets weren’t utterly confident he was ready. Even then, this is the Pelicans! Durant could drop 21 on the Pelicans in a single quarter if he felt like it.
Honestly, I’m just glad we get to watch KD play again tonight and I want to bet him. All the more that we get such a playable number. I’ll take the over here to -120 and trust Durant to do what he always does: score the rock.
Kevin Huerter, under 17.5 points + rebounds + assists (-113)
|Grizzlies at Hawks||-2.5|
|Time||8 p.m. ET|
Kevin Huerter has been on fire over the last week.
Huerter had a season-high 24 points against the Pelicans on 10-of-15 shooting. His next game against the Warriors saw 10 points, four assists, and three steals. And then it was another game against the Pelicans, where Huerter dropped 17 more points with a trio of treys.
That’s 51 points in three games! Kevin Huerter is back!!
… Orrrrr the Pelicans just don’t play defense.
A lot of people can drop 41 on the Pelicans, but that 10 points in the middle is nothing to call home about, and Huerter also dropped a goose egg against the Spurs this week too. Over his last 10 games, Huerter is averaging just 9.6 points, 1.6 rebounds, and 2.7 assists in 26.4 minutes.
This recent hot stretch is probably just hot shooting against the Pelicans. Huerter is not getting a ton of volume now that the Hawks are mostly healthy and he’s just a cog in the machine. Over these 10 most recent games, Huerter went over 17.5 PRA in those two Pelicans games but under in every other outing. He’s had 10 or fewer points in seven of those 10 games, plus zero or one rebounds in over half of them. Even the assists usually top out around three or less, so we may as well add that in too since it boosts the line by three.
Don’t fall prey to the obvious recency bias. Huerter isn’t playing the Pelicans tonight. Play this under to -135.