Saturday’s Best NBA Player Props: Betting Joel Embiid Points, More

Credit:

Andrew Dieb-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid (21), Dallas Mavericks forward Dirk Nowitzki (41).

Matt LaMarca

Jan 05, 2019, 05:25 PM EST

Saturday's seven-game NBA slate features two player prop bets offering value
This piece will focus on 76ers C Joel Embiid and Grizzlies PF Jaren Jackson Jr.

Saturday’s best NBA player props focus two of the slate’s seven games:

Dallas Mavericks at Philadelphia 76ers: 7:30 p.m. ET
Memphis Grizzlies at San Antonio Spurs: 8:30 p.m. ET

As a reminder, you can dig deeper on these and many other prop bets by using our FantasyLabs NBA Player Props Tool. It leverages our projections against five of the most popular online sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of one to 10.

76ers C Joel Embiid

The Pick: Over 27.5 points (-115)

Embiid is one of the most talented scorers in the league, averaging 26.9 points per game. He’s in a great spot today against the Dallas Mavericks, who are at the end of a really difficult road stretch.

This will be their fourth game in the past six days, third game in the past four days, and the second leg of a back-to-back. The 76ers haven’t played since Wednesday, so they should have a significant advantage in terms of rest.

The 76ers will also be without Jimmy Butler, which would potentially turn the over into a slam-dunk. Embiid has seen a team-high usage boost with Butler off the court since he was acquired from the Timberwolves, resulting in an average of 32.8 points per 36 minutes. He scored 42 with Butler out of the lineup in his last contest.

I love this bet. I’d play the over up to -140.

Saturday’s Projected NBA Starting Lineups and Injury News Read now

Grizzlies PF Jaren Jackson Jr.

The Pick: Over five rebounds (-135)

Jackson has pulled down four rebounds or fewer in four of his past five contests, but there are reasons to believe in his rebounding ability on today’s slate.

For starters, he’s seen a nice boost in playing time over his past two games, playing at least 30.8 minutes in each. He’s averaged 6.7 rebounds per 36 minutes this season, so this line seems low if he’s going to continue to see that much playing time.

He would also get a massive boost if Marc Gasol were ultimately ruled out (currently questionable). Jackson has increased his rebound rate by 1.1% with Gasol off the court this season and would likely be asked to play more minutes as well.

JJJ is far from a rebound machine, but five rebounds is a low bar for a starting power forward to clear. I like the over up to -165.