Best NBA Player Prop Bets: Will Avery Bradley Make an Impact on Opening Night?
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Los Angeles Lakers guard Avery Bradley (11).
- The NBA regular season gets underway tonight, which means that prop betting season is back in business.
- This piece will focus on prop bets providing value for Raptors PF Serge Ibaka, Pelicans SF Brandon Ingram, and Lakers SG Avery Bradley.
NBA prop betting season is officially open for business.
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where the Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each play is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Odds as of Tuesday afternoon. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
How did these bets do last season? Pretty damn well, actually. Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.
As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)
Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2700 bets.
Let’s shift the focus to this season. We have two games to choose from tonight:
- New Orleans Pelicans at Toronto Raptors: 8:00 p.m. ET on TNT
- Los Angeles Lakers at Los Angeles Clippers: 10:30 p.m. ET on TNT
The Prop tool currently has a whopping 29 props with a Bet Quality of at least eight, but these three stand out as my personal favorites.
Raptors PF/C Serge Ibaka
THE PICKS: Over 11.5 points (-145) | Over 6.0 rebounds (-145)
The Raptors will unveil their championship banner tonight and begin their title defense vs. the New Orleans Pelicans. Of course, the Raptors will be without Kawhi Leonard this season after he chose to join the LA Clippers during the offseason.
That should open up minutes and opportunities for Ibaka. He increased his usage rate by 3.2% and his rebound rate by +1.5% in 20 games without Kawhi last season. Overall, he averaged 17.9 points and 8.5 rebounds in those contests despite playing just 25.6 minutes per game.
This is also an elite matchup vs. the Pelicans. They ranked second in pace last season, and they ranked fifth in pace during the preseason. The Pels were also dreadful defensively with Anthony Davis out of the lineup last season, and the Raptors are currently implied for 119.0 points.
Both of these props have a Bet Quality of 10 in the player prop tool, and I’d play both up to -165.
Pelicans SF/PF Brandon Ingram
THE PICK: Under 3.5 assists (-115)
Ingram was part of package that ultimately sent Anthony Davis to the Lakers, and he’s a promising young player. That said, he is much more of a scorer than a distributor.
He posted an assist rate of just 12.9% last season, and he didn’t show much improvement during the preseason. He increased his assist rate to just 13.8%, resulting in an average of just 2.2 assists over 22.3 minutes per game.
Ingram should play most of his minutes this season next to either Jrue Holliday or Lonzo Ball, so Ingram can focus on doing what he does best: putting the ball in the basket.
These small props are always risky, but I think this one offers significant value. I’d play the under up to -140.
Lakers SG Avery Bradley
THE PICK: Under 9.5 points (-115)
The Lakers have a glut of options in their backcourt at the moment. Bradley, Danny Green, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Rajon Rondo are all projected for at least 20.4 minutes in the FantasyLabs NBA Models — Alex Caruso and Quinn Cook could factor into the equation as well. Bradley is expected to start at the shooting guard position, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if he played fewer than 30 minutes.
Bradley is not someone who figures to dominate the ball when he is on the court. He is there mostly to provide floor spacing and defense, and he ranked just 15th on the Lakers in usage rate during the preseason.
Bradley would have to shoot the ball well tonight to hit the over on his scoring prop, and I don’t mind betting against that. I like the under up to -125.