Raybon’s Favorite NBA Player Props for Friday: Kenrich Williams Over 1.5 Assists?

My two favorite prop values for Friday are from the following two games:

• New Orleans at Indiana Pacers: 7 p.m. ET
• Los Angeles Clippers at Memphis Grizzlies: 8 p.m. ET

As a reminder, our FantasyLabs NBA Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 1 to 10.

Pelicans SF Kenrich Williams

The Pick: Over 1.5 assists (-170)

Williams has played 30 or more minutes in eight straight games and is averaging 3.3 assists per game over that span, going over 1.5 assists in 7-of-8 (87.5%).

With Darius Miller (quad) doubtful, Williams should continue to get major burn.

Our NBA models have Williams projected for a team-leading 34.5 minutes, and given that Williams averages 1 assist per 13.3 minutes, that should be more than enough playing time for him to notch at least a pair of assists.

This currently has a Bet Quality Rating of 10 in our props tool, and it's so far beyond the threshold that I expect it to remain a 10 even with the line drop and added juice. Even if we assume he dishes two assists in two out of every three games rather than his unsustainable 87.5% rate over his past eight, there should still be value on this prop up to -200.

Grizzlies F Justin Holiday

The Pick: Under 10.5 points (-130)

In 21 games since being traded from the Bulls, Holiday has struggled to score, averaging just 8.2 points in 28.5 minutes.

The Grizzlies reportedly shopped him before the trade deadline, too. The hot potato treatment obviously doesn't bode well for his future outlook, and it should be safe to assume that giving him minutes isn't a priority for Memphis with Avery Bradley, Delon Wright and potentially Chandler Parsons now in the wing mix.

We have Holiday projected to fall roughly four minutes short of his season average on Friday, and he's also projected for the lowest usage rate on the team (16.29%).

Holiday has been under 10.5 points in 67% of his games with Memphis, so there should be value on the under all the way up to -200.