Raybon’s Favorite NBA Props for Monday: Will Trevor Ariza Drop 14 Points?
Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Washington Wizards forward Trevor Ariza
- Chris Raybon breaks down his favorite NBA player props for Monday night.
- Props include Wizards SF Trevor Ariza's points, Cavs C Ante Zizic's points and Mavericks PG Jalen Brunson's assists.
The three NBA player props highlighted below are from the following three games:
- Detroit Pistons at Cleveland Cavaliers: 7 p.m. ET
- Utah Jazz at Washington Wizards: 7 p.m. ET
- New Orleans Pelicans at Dallas Mavericks: 8:30 p.m. ET
As a reminder, our FantasyLabs NBA Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 1 to 10. All odds as of 2:30 p.m. ET. View live odds here.
Wizards SF Trevor Ariza
The Pick: Under 13.5 Points (-125)
After Ariza logged 35.4 minutes per game through February, the 33-year-old vet has seen his workload lightened to 31.6 minutes per game in March.
Ariza’s bread-and-butter is the 3-ball, which has accounted for 47.6% of his scoring since joining the Wizards. Playing minutes in the low- instead of mid-30s will make it even more difficult for Ariza to score against a Jazz defense that allows an NBA-low 27.9 three-point attempts per game, as well as the second-fewest makes (9.9).
Ariza hasn’t scored more than 11 points in eight of 12 games since the All-Star break, and especially considering he’s playing the league’s most efficient defense in a game where the sharp money is on Utah (68% bets vs. 83% money as of this writing) and the under (59% vs. 81%), this line is about one basket too high. The under should have value down to 11.5 at standard juice.
Cavs C Ante Zizic
THE PICK: Over 9.5 Points (-125)
Zizic is averaging 11.3 points in 26.7 minutes per game since the break and has been on the floor at least 30 minutes in each of the past three games. With Larry Nance already ruled out and Kevin Love banged up, the 6-foot-11, 254-pound Zizic will likely be needed for 30-plus minutes again in order to match up with Andre Drummond.
Zizic has dropped in 11 or more points in six of eight starts since the break and 12 of 20 starts this season overall, so over 9.5 should have value up to -150 and over 10.5 to standard juice.
At over 9.5 (-125), this prop is rated a 10-out-of-10 in Bet Quality by our NBA player props tool. Through this past Saturday’s games, points prop overs with a rating of 10 have gone 74-47-4, good for a 59.2% win rate and 14.6% ROI.
Mavericks PG Jalen Brunson
THE PICK: Over 4 Assists (-167)
Brunson has come on of late for the Mavs, averaging 16.5 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 4.9 assists in 31.5 minutes per game in eight starts in March.
The rookie out of Villanova has been under four assists in just five of his 17 starts since Dennis Smith Jr. was shipped to New York. Brunson should be able to go over against a Jrue Holiday-less Pelicans defense that is allowing 2.3 more assists per game than any other team in the league since the break.
At over 4 (-167), this prop is also rated a 10 in Bet Quality by the tool, and 10-rated point guard assist prop overs have a cool 29-11-2 since the start of the season through Saturday (69.0% win rate, 12.9% ROI).
Removing the pushes, Brunson has gone over 4 assists in 61.5% of his starts since Smith was traded, so even at 4.5 this prop should still have value up to -150.