Tuesday’s Best NBA Player Props: Betting Eric Gordon Points, More
Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Eric Gordon
- Tuesday's eight-game slate features five NBA player prop bets offering value.
- This piece will focus on props for Kings PF Marvin Bagley, Pistons C Andre Drummond, Raptors PG Kyle Lowry, Rockets SG Eric Gordon and Wizards F Otto Porter Jr.
Prop bets can be a great way to get action on a game. Bookmakers don’t have to worry about taking a lot of action on them, so there isn’t as great an incentive to post a competitive line.
As a result, props can be some of the most exploitable bets on the board.
These props can become downright unfair when you combine them with the FantasyLabs Player Prop tool.
Tuesday’s best props focus on five of the slate’s eight games:
- Sacramento Kings at Orlando Magic: 7 p.m. ET
- Detroit Pistons at Boston Celtics: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Philadelphia 76ers at Toronto Raptors: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Portland Trail Blazers at Houston Rockets: 8 p.m. ET
- Washington Wizards at Memphis Grizzlies: 8 p.m. ET
Let’s dive right in.
Kings PF Marvin Bagley
The Pick: Under 13 points (-130)
The Kings are such a maddening organization. They spent the No. 2 pick in the draft on Bagley, taking him over guys such as Luka Doncic and Trae Young, yet refuse to give Bagley consistent playing time.
Bagley has been riding the bench more than usual lately, seeing no more than 23 minutes in each of his past three games. The Kings have won all three of those contests, so it’s hard to picture head coach Dave Joerger changing things much on Tuesday in Orlando.
Bagley has displayed some scoring potential in his rookie season, but scoring 13 points in fewer than 24 minutes is a tough ask for anyone (except maybe Klay Thompson).
As long as the Kings can keep this game competitive — which is never a given with Sacramento — I think Joerger will continue to stick with what’s worked for him.
I’d play the under up to -150.
Pistons C Andre Drummond
The Pick: Over 16 points (-114)
I’ve backed the over on Drummond’s scoring prop in each of his past two games, and he’s rewarded me with two wins.
This number seems low once again, so I’m looking to make it three straight wins on Tuesday against the Celtics. Drummond has failed to exceed 16 points in only two games this season — one was a brutal matchup against Joel Embiid and the other was because of foul trouble.
Drummond scored 18 points against Boston in his most recent contest, despite the fact that he played only 29.5 minutes in a blowout loss. He should be able to do it again if the Pistons can keep this game competitive.
I’m not sure why the sportsbooks continue to give us value with Drummond, but we should continue to take it. I’d play this prop up to -160.
Raptors PG Kyle Lowry
The Pick: Under 17.5 points (-105)
Lowry has put together a phenomenal start to the season and is a big part of the reason why the Raptors are currently sitting at 6-1.
That said, he’s taken on a larger role as a distributor and a small role as a scorer after the addition of Kawhi Leonard. Lowry has eclipsed 17.5 points in only two of five games with Leonard in the lineup this season, despite the fact that the Villanova product is shooting a blistering 51.7% from the field and 42.2% from 3-point range. Those would easily be the best marks of his career — he shot 42.7% from the field last season — so it’s reasonable to expect some regression.
Tuesday’s matchup against the 76ers isn’t great for his scoring prospects either: The Sixers rank fifth in the league in defensive efficiency after finishing third last season.
I expect the Raptors to lean heavily on Leonard after resting him on Monday, but there’s always risk when betting unders. This bet stops looking like a value at -135.
Rockets SG Eric Gordon
The Pick: Under 21 points (-115)
Gordon has been asked to do some heavy lifting for the Rockets this season, and his results have been pretty uninspiring. He’s scored 21 or fewer points in all five of his games, and things don’t figure to get much easier on Tuesday against the Trail Blazers, who rank eighth in the league in defensive efficiency.
Gordon seems due for some positive regression with his shooting numbers, but getting to 21 points still seems like a big ask.
Gordon will bust out eventually, but I’m willing to bet on it not happening Tuesday night. I’d play this prop up to -140.
Wizards F Otto Porter Jr.
The Pick: Over 11.5 points (-115)
The Wizards are in a state of disarray, but don’t blame Otto Porter. He had a massive effect on the Wizards last season, who became a significantly worse team on both ends of the court with Porter on the bench.
That said, his results this season have been less than impressive. He’s gone under 11.5 points in four of his first six games, but there are reasons to believe he can improve. He’s shot only 21.7% from 3-point range after shooting at least 43.4% in each of the past two seasons, and he’s also seen reduced minutes in a couple of blowouts. He averaged 14.7 points per game for essentially the same exact team last season, so I think we’re getting a couple points of value in this line.
Porter is a little scary to get behind right now, especially after a bunch of his teammates threw him under the bus to the media, but he’s too talented to struggle forever. However, I wouldn’t play this line if it got much higher.