NBA Betting Tip: Home Teams Provide First-Half Value in Game 3s
John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Toronto Raptors forward Kawhi Leonard (2).
- NBA teams coming home for Game 3 in a playoff series have historically not been profitable bets for the full-game spread.
- However, in specific spots, those teams have provided immense value in the first half of those games.
In NBA series, locations swap after the first two games. Does the new home team — the lower-seeded team in the series — have an edge in these games due to returning home? Not really:
In fact, it seems the public is really overrating this idea lately, as it’s been quite unprofitable to bet those teams against the spread (ATS) in recent years:
Since 2008, blindly betting those home teams in Game 3 would have resulted in a net $1,511 loss on $100 per bet. Not great.
That said, it has been profitable over time to bet those teams on the first-half spread: They’ve gone 129-85-7 (60.3%) ATS, good for a 12.2% Return on Investment.
If those teams have lost each of the first two games, they are even more valuable:
Those teams have hit at a 67.2% rate historically, good for a 28.4% ROI! It’s been consistently profitable over time, too. In fact, they’ve gone a ridiculous 27-6 ATS since 2015.
But let’s not stop there.