The Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder will square off in Game 7 of the NBA Finals on Sunday night, with tipoff set for 8:00 p.m. ET on ABC.
Our staff of basketball betting experts dug into the latest odds and identified 5 NBA picks for tonight's contest. Continue below for our NBA best bets and predictions for Sunday, June 22.
NBA Finals Best Bets, Picks, Predictions: Sunday, June 22
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Pacers vs. Thunder
By Joe Dellera
The Pacers slowed down the entire Thunder offense in Game 6, but now that they have seen it and gotten some film, I expect SGA to have a bounce back performance in Game 7 tonight.
Game 7s are notoriously lower scoring; however, a lot of that is because the pace slows down, the physicality intensifies, and there’s more halfcourt play — all things that align with SGA’s strengths.
He’s averaging 30.5 points per game, and has only played minutes in the low 40s twice this series.
I think we see an uptick and a higher usage rate game from SGA in Game 7 tonight.
Pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 32.5 Points (-118)
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Pacers vs. Thunder
This is the 79th installment of the NBA Finals, and only 20 of them (25.3%) have reached a Game 7.
Indiana’s got all the answers it needed in Game 6 when point guard Tyrese Haliburton overcame a calf strain, contributing 14 points and five assists.
The Pacers’ dominant 108-91 victory allowed them to manage Haliburton’s minutes by limiting him to 23 minutes, the lowest of any Indiana player in the starting lineup.
Now, with two days of rest since the teams last faced one another, Haliburton has an excellent chance to be even more of a threat.
Defensively, he finished with two steals on the night, which suggests his lateral movement was better than anticipated.
The Pacers have thrived in their role as underdogs this postseason, and I expect they’ll play somewhat freely with the pressure squarely on OKC in front of its home crowd.
Interestingly, Indiana is as high as a 7.5-point underdog, and only five Game 7s (26.3%) have been decided by more than seven points.
Those numbers highlight how competitive Game 7s tend to be because when an underdog makes it this far, there’s no question that it’s deserving of a seat at the table with the favorite.
Thus, the Pacers are undervalued in this spot and I’ll gladly ride with the visitors and pocket the 7.5 points.
Pick: Pacers +7.5 (-115)
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Pacers vs. Thunder
By Alex Hinton
In Game 7s, the expectation is teams will get tight leading to more defense and lower scoring games. While that may be true historically, that trend has not been as prevalent recently.
In Game 7 of the Western Conference Semifinals against the Nuggets, the Thunder scored 125 points in a game that finished with 218 points. The Nuggets' Game 7 in the first round series had 221 points.
Last season, the Pacers' Game 7 in their second round series had 239 points.
Additionally, the books buy into that Game 7 perception as well and drop the totals with tonight's game coming in at 214.5 points.
All three Game 7s I referenced above would be comfortably over that number as well as most of the games in this series.
Game 6 landed under as the Thunder's offense did not show up on the road.
However, the first five games in this series have had at least 215 points and four of them have had over 220 points.
That includes all three games in Oklahoma City. Even if tonight's game is a bit slower, we have some wiggle room to land over 215 points.
Pick: Over 214.5 (-110)
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Pacers vs. Thunder
Holmgren had a big Game 3, scoring 20 points on the strength of a massive 1st quarter. He came out of the gates hot, pouring in 13 points in the opening period. He cooled off from there, but it was still one of his best offensive games of the playoffs.
Holmgren has struggled to replicate that performance since then, averaging 9 points in Games 4-6. He injured his ankle early in Game 4, which might be affecting his performance. Since the injury, he's shot 10-for-33 from the field.
OKC has had a hard time generating assists in this series. They had just 14 in Game 6, and most of them came in garbage time. Holmgren has seen his assists, potential assists, and passes per game decline in this round.
He has just 4 assists in the 6 games. By tacking on assists instead of just taking his points prop, we get this up from 15.5 to 17.5.
Pick: Chet Holmgren Under 16.5 Points + Assists (-125)
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Pacers vs. Thunder
By Joe Dellera
I’m going to keep attacking this prop with the level of aggression that J-Dub has had this series.
He’s relentlessly attacking the rim, and so far this series he’s gone 4/4, 8/9, 7/11, and 11/11, 9/12, and 4/5 from the charity stripe.
Last game he only played 27 minutes due to the blowout, and he hasn’t played more than 36 this series.
Considering it’s a Game 7, I wouldn’t be shocked to see him play minutes in the mid 40s.
He’s an 80% free throw shooter on his career, and given the opportunities, he should be able to convert on at least six attempts.
Pick: Jalen Williams Over 5.5 Free Throws Made (-115)
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