NBA Sharp Report: How Wiseguys Are Betting Timberwolves-Lakers
Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Michael Beasley and Taj Gibson
- Thursday's NBA slate features only four games, but sharps have still found a bet with value on the final matchup of the night.
- Sports Insights' Bet Signals and betting market percentages reveal the sharp play on Timberwolves-Lakers (10:30 p.m. ET, TNT).
It’s been a quiet day for sharp betting in the NBA with only four games on the slate. Or perhaps more accurately: It’s been a quiet day for one-sided sharp betting.
A few games have seen some interesting back-and-forth movement resulting from wiseguy activity on both sides of a line (see Warriors-Wizards and Suns-Blazers), but only one play to this point has drawn professional action without conflict.
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Minnesota Timberwolves @ Los Angeles Lakers
10:30 p.m. ET | TNT
Sharp angle: Over (moved from 229 to 230)
Rare is it to see an NBA slate — or any other league, really — featuring three-quarters of its unders getting more than 50% of bets. Given some of the high totals on Thursday night, however, that’s just what we have.
In such cases, sharps often find themselves against the public, unfazed by betting numbers just because they feel too high.
That’s certainly been the case in Timberwolves-Lakers — the final game of the night.
While 57% of bets are landing on the under as of writing (see live data here), oddsmakers have actually increased this total by a full point since opening at 229. Much of the reason for the move has been that 81% of actual money being wagered has hit the over.
Not only does such a percentage mean a monetary liability for sportsbooks, but the significant discrepancy between bets and dollars indicates that the over is drawing much bigger bets — the ones more likely to be made by sharps.
That indication is confirmed by two Sports Insights Bet Signals, revealing at least two occurrences of market-wide line movement caused by sharp action.