If you were to look ahead to tonight's Warriors-Nuggets matchup prior to the season and predict that any sportsbook would have Denver listed as a favorite, yours would've been lumped in with the likes of Max Kellerman's "Brady falling off a cliff" take.
The Warriors were coming off their dominant championship run, and the Nuggets couldn't even swing a playoff spot in 2018. In fact, when this matchup came around in the third game of this season, Golden State closed at -4.5.
Unlike Kellerman's, though, your prediction would have been right.
As of Tuesday afternoon, while most books have the Warriors favored by one point or are listing this game as a pick'em, there are a few out there posting Nuggets -1.
The first three months of the season have obviously been an impressive three for the Nuggets. At 29-13, they're up a half-game on Golden State for first place in the West, and while most would agree that the Warriors still have an overall edge, Denver's home-court advantage, according to oddsmakers, turns this game into an essential coin-flip.
Still, as you might expect, the public is going with the proven winners at such a low number. Seventy-four percent of bets are landing on the Warriors, who opened as 1.5-point favorites. Of course, with the line having moved significantly away from Golden State, you can probably figure out which side sharps are taking.
Per Sports Insights' Bet Signals, sharps have caused market-wide movement on the Nuggets four times by hammering them at +1.5.
We did also track one attempt at buyback on the Warriors at -1, but it was followed immediately by two more sharp signals on the Nuggets, meaning if there's any sharp action hitting the Dubs, it seems to be far outweighed by the wiseguy activity on Denver.
And for what it's worth, the Warriors have struggled this season against the spread (ATS), and especially so in games where they aren't heavy favorites. When favored by fewer than five points (or as underdogs), Golden State is just 3-9 ATS.
As for the total, while we have yet to track a confirmed case of sharp activity, the number has fallen a bit from its opener (228 to 227.5) at a few books. And with just 26% of bettors backing the under, the movement does suggest that sharps could be among that minority.
